Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

December 20, 2016

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 52)

Recently released
population estimate figures by the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, show a
significant increase in Nigerias population, based on the 2006 census. Notably,
total population grew by an estimated 40 percent from 2006, to 193 million persons
in 2016. Also, disaggregate demographic data from 2007 to 2016, reveals
an increase in the number of males (74 million to 99 million) and females (71
million to 95 million), with a 2016 gender (males to females) percentage ratio
of 51:49. The high rate of population growth can be attributed to the improvements
in average annual rate of natural increase the difference between
crude birth rate and death rate. As in preceding years, the composition of
children and youths make up the highest share of the population growth. This presents
a potential increase in the rate of labour supply. Going forward, there is need
for the government to support rapid job creation in order to check the
potential upsurge in unemployment rate.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 21)

Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the value of capital imported to Nigeria declined by 54.34 percent; from $1.56 billion 2015Q4to $710.97 million in 2016Q11. This is the lowest value since the data was first released in 2007. Huge declines in Portfolio Investment (71.54 percent) and other Investment (44.84 percent) were the major drivers of the trend within the period. A myriad of factors have contributed to the decline in investments. The plunge in crude oil prices, and the resultant negative signals on investors confidence, was a key factor. This was exacerbated by the FOREX restrictions and delays in the assentation of 2016 Appropriation Bill. While the slight increases in oil prices and the recent signing of the budget into law could improve the general economic prospects, monetary authorities need to proffer solutions to the negative effects of the current FOREX restrictions on investments.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 23)

Recent Data on Nigerias Real GDP growth rate (Year-on-Year) declined by 2.47 percentage points, from 2.11 per cent in 2015Q4 to -0.36 percent in 2016Q11. This is the lowest GDP growth rate since 2004Q2 (-0.81 percent). The Oil sector continued to contract, as -1.89 percent growth was recorded in 2016Q1. The negative growth witnessed in the oil sector was likely driven by the fall in global oil prices by $9.732 and decline in domestic crude oil production, relative to preceding quarter. Similarly, the Non-oil sector witnessed a negative growth as it declined by 3.32 percentage points from 3.14 percent in 2015 Q4 to -0.18 percent in 2016Q1. The underperformance in the non-oil sector was driven by significant contractions in financial (by 17.69 percent), manufacturing (by 8.77 percent), and real estate (by 5.48 percent) sub-sectors. Given that the present economic fundamentals point to a likely recession in 2016Q2, the government can stir economic activities by speeding up the budget implementation process to spur growth in the non-oil sector and the economy at large. More so, the domestic production shock in the oil sector needs to be addressed to effectively leverage on the present marginal rise in crude oil prices.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 37)

Recent data by the CBN shows a decline in manufacturing capacity utilization by 2.0 percentage points to 50.7 percent in 2016Q2. Foreign exchange challenges in addition to cash squeeze in the review quarter, led to the decline in capacity utilization. This has hindered activities in the sector while impacting negatively on business confidence. Nonetheless, the CBN recently directed authorized FX dealers to dedicate 60 percent of FX purchases to manufacturers. This policy measure is therefore expected to meet the sectors critical FX need for the purchase of imported raw material and other machineries, while boosting the potential for economic growth in the long term.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 43)

The IMF World Economic Outlook report, indicates a downward revision for Nigerias 2017 economic growth. Specifically, growth has been projected to expand by 0.6 percent relative to the 1.1 percent earlier projected. The decrease is attributable to sharp growth slowdown experienced in Nigeria, occasioned by prevailing constraining factors (crude oil production disruptions, Forex and power shortages, and weak investor confidence). The outlook, which does not seem optimistic, reveals Nigerias further vulnerability to potential external and internal risks/shocks.