This study develops a comparable Human Development Index for subnational government in Nigeria. While built on the UNDP approach, we extend the generic framework to address challenges at the subnational level such as comparable indicator, data unavailability, and estimation technique. The result shows a wide disparity across states in their human development, with states within the southern region recording more impressive performance. We further examine the key economic and political drivers of the observed variations across the state and found fiscal sustainability and geopolitical zoning as the key determinants.
Policy Brief & Alerts
Business Confidence Index: After its peak in 2011, business confidence fell sizeably in 2012 as well as 2015Q2. Most recently, BCI has declined to a negative levels in 2016Q1 and Q2. The recent declin
International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa by 0.2 percentage points, while retaining growth estimates for Nigeria and South Africa in 2017. Precisely, growth rate forecast for Africa was reduced from 2.8 percent in January 2017 forecast to 2.6 percent in April 2017 forecast while growth estimates were retained at 0.8 percent for both South Africa and Nigeria. In contrast, global economic growth outlook was increased by 0.4 percentage points from 3.1 percent to 3.5 percent within the same period. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is hampered by adverse cyclical and supply side factors, weak fiscal buffers and rising public debt amongst non-commodity exporters as well as severe drought was experienced in Eastern and Southern Africa
The naira depreciated by 8.2 percent from N305/$ on February 5th, to N330/ $ on February 12th 20166. The apex body identified the increased domestic demand for forex to pay for foreign medical treatments and schools fees (15 percent of total demand) 7 as the main drivers. As a result, the apex bank is considering to discontinue the provision of forex for payment of medical bills and school fees abroad and to re-channel the forex towards the manufacturing sector of the economy. With the continuous depreciation of the naira, and the CBNs resistance from calls to devalue the currency, the options for alternatives measures seem to be diminishing.
Nigerian Naira depreciated by 1.2 percent at the parallel foreign exchange market between April 7, 2017 and April 14, 2017. The naira exchanged at N410/$ as against N405/$ the previous week. Despite the CBNs weekly dollar sales to BDCs ($20,000 to each BDC in the review week) and spot market sales of $100 million to SMEs, the nairas depreciated in the week. This may likely be attributable to speculative motives (on the basis that speculators likely anticipate that the CBN forex interventions may not be sustainable).