Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

March 1, 2017

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 6)

The
nations foreign reserves have been on a steady rise. In the review week,
reserves increased by $415.2 million from $28.3 billion on February 3, 2017 to
$28.8 billion on February 10, 2017. The increase is likely the
reflection of a sustained crude oil revenue complemented by moderating global
crude oil price and increasing domestic production. This should help strengthen
the ability of the CBN to foster forex liquidity, and thus help maintain
stability in the domestic forex market. If sustained, it should also help
improve the value of the naira overtime. Hence, the government should implement
proactive and effective policy strategies to, not only, sustain improvements in
oil revenue but also boost non-oil revenue.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 28)

OPEC weekly basket price increased marginally from $45.09 on June 17, 2016 to $45.95 on June 24, 2016, while Nigerias bonny light increased from $47.61 to $48.90 (with a peak of $49.2 on June 23, 2016)within the same period. The rise in oil price, amidst downward pressures, was likely driven by expectations that the UK would remain in the EU. However, price fell (to $47.61) on June 24, 2016 following the outcome of the UK referendum (on June 23, 2016) to leave the EU. This was driven by concerns over a possible contagion effect of further disintegration on the EU (a major oil consumer) which could drive down oil demand in the longer term. In the medium term, oil prices could face further pressure as a result of rising crude oil output and attenuating production disruptions in Canada and Nigeria. Although, the recent rise in oil prices seem transient, Nigeria can benefit from the marginal rise if disruptions in oil production is quickly resolved