Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

March 1, 2017

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 6)

The
nations foreign reserves have been on a steady rise. In the review week,
reserves increased by $415.2 million from $28.3 billion on February 3, 2017 to
$28.8 billion on February 10, 2017. The increase is likely the
reflection of a sustained crude oil revenue complemented by moderating global
crude oil price and increasing domestic production. This should help strengthen
the ability of the CBN to foster forex liquidity, and thus help maintain
stability in the domestic forex market. If sustained, it should also help
improve the value of the naira overtime. Hence, the government should implement
proactive and effective policy strategies to, not only, sustain improvements in
oil revenue but also boost non-oil revenue.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 39)

Nigerias external reserve fell marginally by from $25.36 billion to $25.16 billion. The decline likely reflects the continued sales of dollar by CBN amid fall in oil revenue. Similarly, the naira/dollar exchange rate depreciated marginally by 0.5 percent to N424/$ at the parallel segmentas also seen in preceding weeks. The continued depreciation likely points to banks low level compliance to CBNs dollar sales directive made in August, 2016, thus creating artificial dollar scarcity in the parallel market.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 46)

The Executive council recently approved a three-year external borrowing plan (2016-2018) which specifies external borrowing of approximately $30 billion (to be sourced mostly from MDBs) for infrastructure development. Although, the plan is yet to be approved by the Senate, the planned concessional loans for infrastructural development would imply inflows of foreign exchange which could help moderate the exchange rate volatilities in the near term, and offer potential improvement in business productivity and job creation.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 12)

The Naira sustained its appreciation trajectory at the parallel market in the review week. Precisely, naira gained 13.3 percent (Week-on-Week) to exchange at N390/$ on March 24, 2017. Reduced pressure on the naira followed moderation in speculative activities as a result of increased forex sales and intervention by the CBN (daily intervention of $1.5 million at the interbank market.) The aim of CBN interventions (narrowing the gap between interbank and parallel market rates) seems to be on course with the continued appreciation of the naira at alternative markets. While current approach of the apex bank proves effective in improving international value of naira in the short term, however, it is expedient that the bank articulates clear and credible flexible exchange rate policy to sustain the momentum and enhance confidence in the forex market in the medium term. Nonetheless, the sustainability of the exchange rate gains is partly dependent on the prospect of crude oil price and production which is outside the purview of the monetary authorities.