At N4,401.91 billion or 7.7 per cent of GDP, gross federally collected revenue for the first half of 2018 was 33.7 percent below the proportionate budget estimates but 47.1 percent above the level recorded in corresponding period of 2017.1 The difference in revenue, relative to the proportionate budget estimates, was driven by shortfalls in both oil and non-oil revenue components. The decline in oil revenue was due to a difference between the budgeted crude oil production benchmark of 2.3 million barrels per day (mbd) and the actual production of 1.90 mbd. An increase in crude oil price over the budget benchmark within the review period was insufficient to reverse the decreasing trend in oil revenue.
Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
November 14, 2018
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 44)
At N4,401.91 billion or 7.7 per cent of GDP, gross federally collected revenue for the first half of 2018 was 33.7 percent below the proportionate budget estimates but 47.1 percent above the level recorded in corresponding period of 2017.1 The difference in revenue, relative to the proportionate budget estimates, was driven by shortfalls in both […]
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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 23)
Recent Data on Nigerias Real GDP growth rate (Year-on-Year)
declined by 2.47 percentage points, from 2.11 per cent in 2015Q4 to -0.36
percent in 2016Q11. This is the lowest GDP growth rate since 2004Q2
(-0.81 percent). The Oil sector continued to contract, as -1.89 percent growth
was recorded in 2016Q1. The negative growth witnessed in the oil sector was
likely driven by the fall in global oil prices by $9.732 and decline
in domestic crude oil production, relative to preceding quarter. Similarly, the
Non-oil sector witnessed a negative growth as it declined by 3.32 percentage
points from 3.14 percent in 2015 Q4 to -0.18 percent in 2016Q1. The underperformance in the non-oil sector was
driven by significant contractions in financial (by 17.69 percent), manufacturing
(by 8.77 percent), and real estate (by 5.48 percent) sub-sectors. Given that
the present economic fundamentals point to a likely recession in 2016Q2, the
government can stir economic activities by speeding up the budget
implementation process to spur growth in the non-oil sector and the economy at
large. More so, the domestic production shock in the oil sector needs to be
addressed to effectively leverage on the present marginal rise in crude oil
prices.