Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

September 3, 2018

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 32)

Nigeria’s infrastructure stock, comprising of roads, water-ways, seaports, airports, etc, increased slightly albeit a slower pace in recent years. At an estimated 35 percent of GDP in 2018, infrastructure stock grew marginally from the recorded 20-25 percent in 20141. The increase may be premised on slightly improved capital spending (the Federal government budgetary capital spending […]

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Nigeria’s infrastructure stock, comprising of roads, water-ways, seaports, airports, etc, increased slightly albeit a slower pace in recent years. At an estimated 35 percent of GDP in 2018, infrastructure stock grew marginally from the recorded 20-25 percent in 20141. The increase may be premised on slightly improved capital spending (the Federal government budgetary capital spending increased from N691 billion in 2015 to N2.2 trillion in 2017) for the four years under review. However, Nigeria’s infrastructure stock continues to be significantly lower than the recommended international benchmark of 70 percent- a point it hopes to reach by 2043 if the required annual $100 billion is invested over the next three decades.




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Nigeria Economic Review

The global economy grew by 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 (2016Q4) relative to 2.5 percent in 2016Q3, due to rising investment and consumption demands in developed and emerging economies as well as a rise in commodity prices. However, over the entire year, global GDP growth stood at 2.6 percent in 2016, relative to the growth of 3.09 percent recorded in 2015. Notably, output grew progressively in the US over the year, while the steady growth recorded in the UK since the start of the year stalled in 2016Q4. Also, the declining growth recorded in France since 2015 took a positive turn in 2016Q4, the rest of the Eurozone witnessed a fall in output in the quarter. While emerging economies recorded mixed experiences, many Sub-Saharan African countries showed signs of recovery in the period.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 51)

Recently released data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that there was significant increase in Nigerias total merchandise trade for 2016Q3. Basically, the total merchandise trade increased (quarter-on-quarter) by 16.29 percent to N4, 722 billion in 2016Q3;owing to 29.1 percent increase in exports and 6.2 percent rise in imports. Oil exports increased by 31 percent to N1, 943 billion, while non-oil exports increased by 20.5 percent to N440 billion. However, on the aggregate, Nigeria recorded yet another trade deficit of N104 billion, indicating continuous higher imports relative to exports. Overall, though there is improvement in the performance of non-oil sector, however, this is insufficient to effectively complement the loss in oil trade sustained since the beginning of oil price crash. This suggests that diversification into non-oil sector may not be able to rescue the economy in the short term. However, while the diversification efforts should be sustained, eliminating hurdles in oil production may be instrumental to higher exports, especially as oil price increase is gaining momentum.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 39)

The monthly monetary survey by the CBN shows a decline in money supply for the month of August 2017, relative to July 2017. Narrow and broad money supply dropped by 4.2% and 1.5% to N9,891 billion and N21,851 billion respectively. The continuous monetary contraction witnessed over the past months may be associated with aggressive sale of treasury bills by the CBN through open market operations. This act is capable of mopping up liquidity in the economy, reduce loanable funds in the banking system, and constrain the easing of lending rates in the near term.