In Nigeria, approximately 50% of the estimated 193 million population live in poverty. In 2018, the World Poverty clock estimates that Nigeria has the highest number of people living in extreme poverty. These trends point to the need to rethink and rejig the government’s approach to poverty alleviation.

In rethinking Nigeria’s current approach, there are important lessons that could be drawn from emerging economies like China. Between 1990 and 2015, China effectively lifted 745 million out of poverty. This contributed to about 70% of the global poverty reduction over the period and the achievement has been described as the most impressive economic miracle in development history. While the roles of market reform, trade openness and state-led development initiatives in this ‘economic miracle’ are well documented, the role of education in the broader poverty alleviation strategies has been less emphasized. A new book on Poverty Alleviation in China[1] is drawing attention to the role of education in Chinese development narrative and there are many important lessons for countries like Nigeria which is facing similar developmental challenges. In this piece, we highlight four key lessons for Nigeria in order to reduce poverty via education.

First, vocational education was given priority among other levels of education in China. The elevation of the status of vocational training allowed a wider demographic of individuals (young and old) to acquire the benefits of skill development in the short-run through a flexible program. The programs ensured that the skills supplied within these communities matched local demand in order to effectively impact their experience. It also reduced the level of rural to urban migration as the campaign provided local opportunities, developed human capital within the rural areas which consequently broadened their capability. Although Nigeria has set up vocational training programs both in the formal 6-3-3 education system, as well as state governments and civil societies facilitated programs, its impact is limited. This is because the program is not widespread, lacks permeability and the programs are not standardised in delivery. Similarly, the lack of an overarching initiative focused on skill acquisition in the Nigerian education system limits its impact on poverty alleviation and also exclude some demographic groups in the development process.

Second, education policy is considered as a subset of the grander economic policy, as such China’s education policy are jointly designed and implemented by the ministries of finance and education. The synergy between the finance and the educational ministry covers standardisation of education structures across various regions as well as teacher’s training and placement programme. The understanding that education policy is directly related to economic policy is one crucial area that presents an apparatus for policy design which Nigeria can learn from. For instance, the problem of out-of-school children in the Northern Nigeria, many scholars have observed that poverty and other economic fundamentals play a role in the problem[2]. However, policy interventions to address the problem have concentrated mainly on education sector driven solution like building more schools. Predictably, most of the educational interventions to out-of-school children issues in Nigeria have failed to deliver the expected outcome. Again, China’s approach to economic planning through mainstreaming poverty alleviation programs into the education policy could help Nigeria to simultaneously tackle the educational and economic challenges.

Third, China’s intervention in reaching disadvantaged communities and vulnerable groups that are not in school employed a good mix of free education and other incentives to encourage participation. The Chinese government provides region-specific subsidies for students within disadvantaged areas as well as loan schemes to encourage longer years of education in order to effectively improve their quality of life. There is an increasing recognition in the Nigerian context too that making education free does not automatically translate to more inclusion or increase enrolment, but that additional incentive is required to encourage more participation of the disadvantage groups. Also, constraints to schooling extend beyond costs and could be driven by cultural and behavioural factors. Responding to these non-cost elements require additional interventions even when education is free. The federal and state governments recent school feeding programme is an example of balance policy mix to improve inclusion. Going forward, it is crucial to expand the interventions to region-specific incentives to improve educational performance in Nigeria.   

Fourth, it is reassuring that China with outstretched government’s presence still recognizes and ensures robust community participation in its education management. Besides allowing for supplementary training and facilities by the private sector, government-own initiatives also use local role models and organizations to secure wider buy-in from the public.The organizations and individuals were involved in campaign and awareness programme regarding education reform. In the Nigerian system where implementing reform is difficult, more involvement of communities in education policy intervention will be vital and could help restrain vested interests and better communicate reform benefits to the public. This is because the local agents understand the region-specific idiosyncrasies and factors to ensure efficient implantation and implementation of policy. In pursuing poverty alleviation in Nigeria, education system could play a significant role beyond its traditional functions of socialization and capacity and knowledge development. Education can directly work to reduce poverty through promoting inclusiveness, strengthen community engagement and using vocational education as a springboard for development. The Chinese experience offers a template which has worked to lift more than three times the estimated Nigerian population out of poverty and fortunately it only requires looking inward and building broad base local partnership.

[1] Editorial board of Poverty alleviation in China ‘Poverty-Alleviation via Education in China’,(2018), First edition

[2] Lincove, J. (2009). Determinants of schooling for boys and girls in Nigeria under a policy of free primary education. Economics of Education Review, 28(4), pp.474-484.

The Future

Policy makers of about 13 countries including China (the largest car market in the world) and Japan (the third largest car market in the world) are pushing for a phase out of fossil fuel powered cars in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve urban air quality across board. In December 2019, the Swedish government set up a committee of inquiry to offer proposals on how to enforce a complete ban on the sales of fossil fuel powered cars in the country by 2040. This is coming after Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, through its Bundesrat federal council, agreed to ban fossil fuel powered cars by 2030 in 2016, the same year Norway made its landmark announcement of a proposed ban on fossil fuel cars by 2025 – with a suggestion to the European Union (EU) to also introduce a ban on fossil-fuel powered vehicles. With China as the world’s largest car market announcing to set a deadline for car makers to end sales of fossil fuel-powered cars, the threat of renewable energy powered vehicles to the global oil demand cannot be over emphasized.

The Threat to Nigeria’s Oil Economy

According to a study by the Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy, global policy makers are targeting the automobile sector as part of ambitious plans to meet international agreements to reduce gas emissions because of the probable scenario where full penetration of electric cars and other vehicles could take almost 25 million barrels per day of oil use out of the global oil market.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) also predicts that the overall demand for crude oil will plateau in 2030, due to a rise in the use and market demand for electric cars and other electric powered vehicles. In fact, according to global oil giant British Petroleum (BP), the growth of electric cars will also mitigate the growth in oil demand. BP also estimates that a 100 million increase in electric cars reduces oil demand growth by 1.2 million barrels per day.

These new developments and switch to alternative energy powered cars from the usual fossil fuel powered cars will no doubt have a massive impact on the global demand for oil, a looming problem for countries whose economies are heavily dependent on oil.

It is no longer news that Nigeria is a massively oil dependent nation. In fact, according to statistics from the National Bureau Statistics and the International Monetary Fund in 2019, 94 percent of Nigeria’s export earnings come from oil exports while 57 percent of Nigeria’s revenue comes from its oil exports. More damning are the projections from an Aurora Energy Research press report in 2018 of a dwindling of revenues for oil producing countries in the world by more than $20 billion between now and 2040 – furthermore, an analysis of the demand and supply effects of a ‘burnout scenario’ by the leading energy research and analytics firms predicts a fall in oil prices to $32 per barrel in 2040 (in today’s money).

With statistics like those from the aforementioned, it is imperative to note that a rise in the mass production of electric cars and any other alternatively fueled modes of transportation would adversely affect Nigeria’s fragile oil dependent economy.

Following the global economic trends, it is ominous that Nigeria has to brace up in its diversification drive or face an economic armada in the next three to five decades. Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), a consultancy, notes that forecasts from oil companies have a lot more electric vehicles in them than they did a few years ago. China, which accounted for roughly half the electric cars sold in 2019, wants to see 2 million electric and plug-in hybrid cars on its roads in 2020, and 35 million car sales by 2025. There is no doubt that recent global trends will push the acceptability for electric powered vehicles and change the global economic dynamics

Not All Gloom

Fossil fuel-powered vehicles will continue to be the norm for a few more decades to come in these parts (Africa) “mostly due to an uneven distribution of the ‘electric car manufacturing’ technology and for the fact many parts of the world are still energy poor”[1]. With this in mind, “the uneven distribution of the technology and enabling infrastructure for electric vehicles will lead to 'dumping' - this is when fossil fuel-powered cars and other vehicles will be exported in their numbers from developed to developing countries as they are phased out by electric cars”[2].

These arguments not only shift the attention from the impact of alternative powered vehicles on oil dependent economies but also the negative effects on developing countries that may potentially arise due to technology consumption inequality.

Conclusion

With a gradual increase in the global levels of alternative energy consumption, not only the global auto industry but many other vital sectors will look away from fossil fuels as the years go by, ensuring that oil dependent countries like Nigeria have a rethink.

The rethink in this case should heavily depend on structural changes that diversifies Nigeria’s oil based economy as a means to neutralize the impending drop in oil revenues – which is the predicted outcome of the projected global shift from fossil fueled cars to electric powered cars.

In conclusion, the rapid development of hybrid and electric cars represents a substitute to fossil fuel powered passenger cars, thus a threat, to the Nigerian fossil fuel industry – and its “oil economy”.

References

Ishaku, J. (2018). Episode 3; Season 1 [Recorded by MakeWeYarn]. Abuja, Nigeria .

Ishaku, J. (2019). Abuja.

[1] Joseph Ishaku, a research fellow at the Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA Africa) and a development economist at an informal energy discourse explaining why the market dynamics in Africa as regards the auto industry will stay the same regardless of a global shift from fossil fuel powered vehicles to electric powered vehicles. (Ishaku, 2019)

[2] Joseph Ishaku, a research fellow at the Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA Africa) and a development economist on a podcast: “MakeWeYarn” (Ishaku, 2018)

Southern Voice’s State of the SDG’s Initiative (SVSS) provided a unique platform for six selected teams from the Global South to explore global factors affecting the implementation of the 2030 Agenda. Studies came from Bolivia, Ghana, India, Nigeria, Peru and Sri Lanka. To increase the impact of this research, each team appointed a person to implement a robust communications strategy together with the Southern Voice Secretariat.

A first step was the Southern Voice communications workshop in November 2018, held in Bangkok. It provided a platform for communications experts from the six selected think tanks to improve existing skills and learn about new tools. The aim was to strengthen the communications strategy and outputs of each team’s SVSS research. It was also an exciting opportunity to meet and share experiences in person with peers from different countries.

Learning lessons included: using pictures to enhance presentations rather than using too much text, creating podcasts to transmit research content more conversationally and informally, as well as learning how to write compelling and relatable blog posts or articles. The seminar also served as a basis for starting an active community of communications experts from member think tanks of the Southern Voice network. A year later, we feel that our communications outputs have improved and we can show that the findings of our research teams are being discussed in several national and international meetings. Learning how to communicate better in different ways has played a vital role in addressing the information needs of policymakers.

Based on our experience this past year in Nigeria and Peru, at the Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA) and Grupo de Análisis para el Desarrollo (GRADE) respectively, we can say that some of those information needs include:

• Detailed information on the heterogeneities and situation of the left behind. It helps policymakers to prioritise which marginalised groups might require SDG-related interventions. In the case of Peru, there is a lot of data and monitoring on SDGs. However, the indicators are only estimated and monitored at the aggregated level. In this sense, GRADE’s most important contribution was the production of a baseline of the left behind in the fields of work and education with the SVSS study.
• Empirical evidence on the dimensions and drivers for achieving quality education. In Nigeria, the government is keen on making the SDGs. CSEA’s study provided the evidence needed to help bridge the gap between research outcomes, policies and implementation.

To increase this impact, at CSEA, we worked hard on expanding our visibility and network among critical stakeholders. We did this through continuous engagement and collaboration, but also by boosting our social media presence, increasing our newsletter frequency and partnering with relevant government and development agencies and other institutions. These engagements are also meant to foster the debates around the SDGs and enhance government and stakeholders’ action.

Meanwhile, at GRADE, we strengthened our dissemination activities on SDGs by engaging with local and international organisations and policymakers. We hope that our profiles of those left behind will be used as tools. They can help in the design of policies for improving the lives of people who are currently left behind. To promote this, we recently discussed our findings at the 2019 annual congress of the Peruvian Association of Economics and the UN 2019 Global Goals Week.

Making SDGs visible

In addition to a greater emphasis on fulfilling policymaker’s information needs, achieving the sustainable development agenda requires a significant focus on SDG visibility. To engage stakeholders and call citizens to action, effective communications should be a strategic priority of every organisation working on SDGs.

As think tank communicators, we have the opportunity to enhance research findings with creativity (using digital and traditional formats) and effectiveness (aiming for higher impact). The more people of all areas of life that are aware of the 2030 Agenda, the more accountable governments will be towards ensuring the implementation of the SDGs.

Through the SVSS project, the Nigeria and Peru teams had the chance to collaborate in strengthening their communications strategy for the SDGs. The initiative facilitated peer-learning and sharing best practices. Training activities like the Bangkok workshop and recent international meetings were great ways to sustain the knowledge exchange. Now each team can keep working on strengthening the engagement between evidence and policy in their respective countries.

This blog was first published on southern voice

On 29 October 2019, UNCTAD held its annual Centers of Excellence strategic meeting in Geneva, Switzerland. CSEA has been selected as a UNCTAD Regional Center of Excellence (CoE). The CoE’s with different strengths and expertise in various sectors including sustainable development, poverty alleviation and policy cooperation across developing countries. The CoE would leverage South-South cooperation as a means of providing technical assistance, and more importantly share successful experiences and best practices in trade and development policies.

The Annual Strategic meeting brought together all Coordinators of the Centers of Excellence

to engage formally with UNCTAD staff, brief member States directly on the activities undertaken at the respective Centers, and further enhance synergies among themselves to ensure coherence and continuity in the work planning.

The primary objectives of the meeting Include:

·         To exchange views on how to best manage, coordinate and run Centers of Excellence on a sustainable basis as possible, including through financial resources mobilization;

·         To sensitize member States to the work carried out in the CoE and enable the cross-fertilization and sharing of good practices among key national institutions and stakeholders from other countries, and international experts;

·         To provide a unique venue and convening mechanism for information sharing and engagement, including through the scheduled training courses for the dissemination of innovative policies and initiatives; and

·         To present opportunities for the development of partnerships and joint activities with stakeholders in other value-added activities engaged with strategic, export-oriented sectors, including fisheries and aquaculture, as well as the pharmaceutical and other healthcare industries.