Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

January 29, 2018

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 2)

International rating body, Fitch, has projected higher economic growth for Nigeria in 2018. The body estimated that Nigerias economy will grow by 2.6 percent, slightly higher compared to projections from the International Monetary Fund (2.1 percent) and The World Bank (1 percent). A myriad of factors may have driven the projected increase: improved availability of forex for the non-oil sector, higher government capital expenditure capability driven by more oil revenue, and fiscal stimulus. However, the relatively strong economic growth projected by Fitch and IMF may be hampered

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 5)

The Naira continued to depreciate in the review week. At the parallel market, naira exchanged for N498/$ on January 27, 2017 and N500/$ on February 3, 2017. Despite the weekly sales of forex to BDCs and the significant improvements in the external reserves, the naira has continued to lose value to other currencies. The pressure on the naira has been triggered by escalating scarcity of forex in the spot market, likely due to forex hoarding. However, in the preceding week, the CBN sold $660 million in forwards contract in an attempt to manage liquidity and stabilize the naira. In the face of growing speculation in the parallel market, the monetary authority should institute mechanisms that would discourage excessive forex hoarding among licensed BDC operators. An initiative that monitors transaction dealings in the parallel market would go a long way in detecting erring BDC operators.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 48)

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that Internally Generated Revenue by states increased in 2017H1. The IGR increased from N392.1 billion in 2016H1, to N396.9 billion in 2017H1, a slight 1.2 percentage half Year-on-year growth. Also, N149.5 billion was generated in 2017Q3. Lagos state remains top in internal revenue generation, with a significant 42.3 percent share of total IGR in the review half year. The improvements in IGR may be attributable to efficient revenue collection by each reported state from the various sources of internal revenue: taxes, fines and fees, licenses, earnings & sales, rent on government property, interests and dividends, among others. 

Portfolio Diversification Between Developed And Less Developed Economies

This study examines the hedging effectiveness of portfolio investment diversification between developed and developing economies; with focus on the Nigerian stock asset vis--vis the stock assets of the United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK). Its main contribution is in the analysis of optimal portfolio diversification using optimal portfolio weight (OPW) and optimal hedging ratio (OHR). Empirical findings show that the OPW and OHR are low, which indicates impressive potential gains from combining Nigerian stock assets in an investment portfolio with US and UK stock assets. In addition, exchange rate volatility is found to pose stern limitation on the potential benefits of this portfolio diversification arrangement. It is therefore recommended that the monetary authority in Nigeria should pursue policies towards reducing exchange rate volatility to the barest minimum. This will possibly attract more investors from developed economies who might be willing to combine Nigerian stock in their investment portfolio to minimize portfolio risk.