Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
March 1, 2017
Africa Economic Update (Issue 1)
Sub-Saharan Africa experienced its worst economic
performance in over two decades in 2016, with growth slowing to 1.5 percent.
The poor performance in South Africa and oil exporting countries is responsible
for attenuating regional growth rate, due to their high collective contribution
to regional GDP, despite robust performance in non-resource intensive countries.
Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to slightly improve in 2017 (2.9
percent) and further strengthen in 2018 (3.6 percent). At the sub-regional
level, growth prospect is estimated to be highest in West Africa (4.78
percent), attributable to 5.93 percent growth rate from West African Monetary
Union (WAEMU) Countries. East Africa is expected to grow at 4.5 percent,
Southern Africa 3 percent, and Central Africa 2 percent. Agricultural exporting
countries are projected to grow at around 7 percent, while oil producing
countries are estimated to grow at 1.9 percent, which indicates a recovery from
the negative growth recorded in 2016.
Related
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 28)
OPEC
weekly basket price increased marginally from $45.09 on June 17, 2016 to $45.95
on June 24, 2016, while Nigerias bonny light increased from $47.61
to $48.90 (with a peak of $49.2 on June 23, 2016)within the same
period. The rise in oil price, amidst downward pressures, was likely driven by
expectations that the UK would remain in the EU. However, price fell (to
$47.61) on June 24, 2016 following the outcome of the UK referendum (on June
23, 2016) to leave the EU. This was driven by concerns over a possible
contagion effect of further disintegration on the EU (a major oil consumer) which
could drive down oil demand in the longer term. In the medium term, oil prices could face
further pressure as a result of rising crude oil output and attenuating production
disruptions in Canada and Nigeria. Although, the recent rise in oil prices seem
transient, Nigeria can benefit from the marginal rise if disruptions in oil production
is quickly resolved
Real GDP Growth Rate
On average, Nigerias GDP growth rate has averaged about 5 percent; attaining an unusual trough of nearly -10 percent in 2003Q4 and a peak of nearly 20 percent in 2004Q4. However, the Nigerian economy