Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 38)

On a Month-on-Month basis, average growth rate of selected food prices decreased in October 2017.  Precisely, contracting by 1.24 percent in October, average growth rate fell from 0.08 percent recorded in September 2017. Notably, the contraction reflected in the food sub-index of the headline inflation for October 2017. The marginal decrease in the prices of selected food items may be in line with seasonal levels, as the harvest season reaches its peak, thus making food items relatively available at various demand levels. Going forward, investment towards the provision of better farming inputs, technology, financing, and value addition across the agricultural value chain could help improve yield output and food security all through the year. 

Sub-Saharan Africa experienced its worst economic performance in over two decades in 2016, with growth slowing to 1.5 percent. The poor performance in South Africa and oil exporting countries is responsible for attenuating regional growth rate, due to their high collective contribution to regional GDP, despite robust performance in non-resource intensive countries. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to slightly improve in 2017 (2.9 percent) and further strengthen in 2018 (3.6 percent). At the sub-regional level, growth prospect is estimated to be highest in West Africa (4.78 percent), attributable to 5.93 percent growth rate from West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) Countries. East Africa is expected to grow at 4.5 percent, Southern Africa 3 percent, and Central Africa 2 percent. Agricultural exporting countries are projected to grow at around 7 percent, while oil producing countries are estimated to grow at 1.9 percent, which indicates a recovery from the negative growth recorded in 2016.