According to the Central Bank of Nigeria, the primary market recorded a rise in interest rates for the first time in 3 months. The rise was recorded in the recent 13th May auction as interest rates rose to 2.5% (+35%) and 2.85% (+16%) for the 91-day and 182-day tenor respectively when compared to the preceding auction1. The rise in interest rates can be attributed to lower demand given that investors are seeking for safer assets in more stable currencies in these unprecedented times. Bearing in mind that the government aims to mobilize domestic funds following a shift in debt sourcing, this will increase the cost of borrowing for the government. In addition, considering that the interest rate on T-bills is the benchmark interest rate, the rates of other commodities including bonds and equities are expected to rise. The rise in interest rate will increase the need to save for households, thus lowering consumption and increase the cost of borrowing for firms, thus reducing investment. The overall effect will be a negative impact on economic growth.
June 3, 2020
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 20)
The paper analyses the impact of public debt on an economy using Nigeria as case study and identifies steady states in the model of a closed economy.
Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the value of capital imported to Nigeria declined by 54.34 percent; from $1.56 billion 2015Q4to $710.97 million in 2016Q11. This is the lowest value since the data was first released in 2007. Huge declines in Portfolio Investment (71.54 percent) and other Investment (44.84 percent) were the major drivers of the trend within the period. A myriad of factors have contributed to the decline in investments. The plunge in crude oil prices, and the resultant negative signals on investors confidence, was a key factor. This was exacerbated by the FOREX restrictions and delays in the assentation of 2016 Appropriation Bill. While the slight increases in oil prices and the recent signing of the budget into law could improve the general economic prospects, monetary authorities need to proffer solutions to the negative effects of the current FOREX restrictions on investments.