Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

February 16, 2016

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 8)

data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that total capital
importation in 2015 fell steeply by 53.5 per cent from $20,750.76 million in
2014 to $9,643.01 million in 20152. This decline was largely driven
by a substantial drop in portfolio investment (the largest component of Capital
Inflows), which fell by 59.74 percent. The exclusion of Nigeria from the JP Morgan
EM Bond index, the slump in crude oil prices, the decision of the US Federal
Reserve to raise interest rates and the capital control measures imposed by the
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) are the notable drivers of the reduced inflow of
capital. Going forward, improving the business environment, especially easing
foreign exchange controls, would determine the extent to which the economy can
attract increased capital inflows.

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Multidimensional Impact Evaluation:

Ending (extreme) poverty in all of its forms everywhere around the world continues to dominate the International Development Agenda (UN 2015). However, while poverty is declining in much of the developing world, data from the World Development Report (WDR) Conflict, Security, and Development reveal that fragile and conflict-affected states are lagging behind. The report points out that 'Poverty rates are 20 percentage points higher in countries affected by repeated cycles of violence over the last three decades. Indeed, with the worlds extreme poor over represented in fragile and conflict-affected ,some authors argue that violent conflict is development in reverse

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 47)

Recently released data by the Debt Management Office reveals a further increase in Nigerias debt stock as at the end of 2017Q3. Total debt stock stood at N20.37 trillion as at September 20172, increasing by 3.75 percent Quarter-over- Quarter and 20.67 percent Year-on-Year. External debts rose 2 percent to N4.69 trillion, while domestic debts (FGN and States) grew by 4.3 percent to N15.68 trillion both accounting for approximately 23 percent and 77 percent of total debt stock respectively. Obviously, Nigerias increasing debt accumulation at a rate faster than GDP growth rate, clearly exacerbates difficulties in meeting debt repayment and sustainability of debt servicing measures. The recent borrowing surge should be utilized to provide socially viable and profitable infrastructure so as to minimize the future debt burden.

91-Day Treasury Bills

91-Day Treasury Bills: T-bill rate has highly fluctuated overtime on the account of the rise and fall in investor confidence, monetary policy easing/tightening, governments demand for funds, and infl