Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
October 4, 2016
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 41)
The
naira continued its downward trajectory in the review week. Specifically, naira
depreciated significantly at the parallel segment by 3.5 percent to a record
low of N440/$ on September 23, 2016. Notably, this was driven by
the worsening liquidity constraints at the interbank market which left the
excess forex demand to be sourced at the parallel market, and thus exerted
downward pressure on the naira. The naira is likely to further
weaken given that most of the liquidity constraints are exogenously determined
and thus forex supply will likely remain subdued by its demand.
Related
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 5)
The Naira continued to depreciate in the
review week. At the parallel market, naira exchanged for N498/$ on January 27,
2017 and N500/$ on February 3, 2017. Despite the weekly sales of forex to BDCs and
the significant improvements in the external reserves, the naira has continued
to lose value to other currencies. The pressure on the naira has been triggered
by escalating scarcity of forex in the spot market, likely due to
forex hoarding. However, in the preceding week, the CBN sold $660 million in forwards
contract in an attempt to manage liquidity and stabilize the naira.
In the face of growing speculation in the parallel market, the monetary
authority should institute mechanisms that would discourage excessive forex
hoarding among licensed BDC operators. An initiative that monitors transaction
dealings in the parallel market would go a long way in detecting erring BDC
operators.
Export Commodity Prices And Long-Run Growth Of Primary Commodities-Based African Economies
There
is a link between primary commodity export prices and economic performance.
Many African economies are primary commodities export biased, often in few
primary commodities. Previous studies focus on the impact of commodity prices
on growth in Africa with little attention paid to different primary commodities
and level of diversification in primary commodities export. This study,
investigates the effect of primary commodity prices on the long-run growth of 24
primary commodities-based African economies; by commodity types and level of
diversification in primary commodities exports.