Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

February 5, 2019

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 3)

Inflation rate rose in December 2018 for the second consecutive month to 11.44 percent, 0.16 percentage points higher than the 11.28 percent recorded in November 2018.1 The rise in inflation was driven by the food component of inflation which increased to 13.56 percent from 13.30 percent within the same period. Further disaggregated data shows that […]

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Inflation rate rose in December 2018 for the second consecutive month to 11.44 percent, 0.16 percentage points higher than the 11.28 percent recorded in November 2018.1 The rise in inflation was driven by the food component of inflation which increased to 13.56 percent from 13.30 percent within the same period. Further disaggregated data shows that the highest increments were recorded in the price of basic food items such as bread, cereals, fish, meat, potatoes, yam and other tubers. Core inflation experienced no increment from the previous month, stagnating at 9.80 percent. Seasonal demand effect is closely linked to the rise in inflation given that the holiday season is associated with a rise in the price of food items. In the coming month, we expect the inflation rate to continue on the upward trend considering the increase in election-related spending. The current monetary policy parameters should remain unchanged until a clearer picture of the effect of the election on economic indicators is known




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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 44)

Recently released Nigerias petroleum imports data, show a significant decline in the quantity and value of petroleum import products (PMS, AGO and NHK) between 2015 and 2016. Specifically, value of imports significantly declined year-on-year (January to April) by 30.4 percent to N571 billion in 2016. The huge decline in the import of (refined) petroleum products likely reflects the lower (unrefined) crude oil production/exports. Furthermore, it is likely that the import of petroleum products could decline in subsequent years; however, this is dependent on the prospects of the three domestic refineriesbeing refurbished.