Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

June 30, 2016

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 28)

OPEC
weekly basket price increased marginally from $45.09 on June 17, 2016 to $45.95
on June 24, 2016, while Nigerias bonny light increased from $47.61
to $48.90 (with a peak of $49.2 on June 23, 2016)within the same
period. The rise in oil price, amidst downward pressures, was likely driven by
expectations that the UK would remain in the EU. However, price fell (to
$47.61) on June 24, 2016 following the outcome of the UK referendum (on June
23, 2016) to leave the EU. This was driven by concerns over a possible
contagion effect of further disintegration on the EU (a major oil consumer) which
could drive down oil demand in the longer term. In the medium term, oil prices could face
further pressure as a result of rising crude oil output and attenuating production
disruptions in Canada and Nigeria. Although, the recent rise in oil prices seem
transient, Nigeria can benefit from the marginal rise if disruptions in oil production
is quickly resolved

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Nigeria Economic Review

Global economic growth remained fairly stable in 2016Q3 with baseline projections for global growth at 3.1 percent and 2.4 percent by International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank respectively. Growth in developed countries was moderate but unevenly distributed: while the U.S and the UK showed improvements, growth in other economies remained tepid. Among emerging countries, India witnessed higher growth while growth in China remained constant but the Chinese Yuan continued to appreciate. Given that India is Nigerias major crude oil importer, improving economic conditions in India may translate into rising demand for Nigerias crude oil. However, the continuous appreciation of the Yuan poses significant inflationary threat in Nigeria given the high level of imports from China. Subdued global demand, weak trade, uncertainties in commodity prices and consequences of the Brexit were the key constraining factors to growth over the period. In addition, growth in Sub-Saharan African countries remained generally slow on the account of low commodity price, political turmoil, and inconsistent government policies.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 32)

Available data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a decline in oil and other petroleum production between 2015 and 2016. Crude oil production fell by 16 percent, from 777.5 million barrels in 2015 to 656.8 million barrels in 2016. This is also indicative of the number of exploratory rig count that fell from 15 rigs to 8 rigs in 2016. Similarly, Gas production declined by 10 percent to 2,711 million one thousand standard cubic feet (mscf) in 2016. The significant decline in crude oil and petroleum production, brings to perspective the extent of the damage caused on production pipelines by militants in the Niger Delta region in 2016. It is therefore important to invest national resources in maintaining domestic peace and security, especially in resource-rich regions of the country.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 6)

The nations foreign reserves have been on a steady rise. In the review week, reserves increased by $415.2 million from $28.3 billion on February 3, 2017 to $28.8 billion on February 10, 2017. The increase is likely the reflection of a sustained crude oil revenue complemented by moderating global crude oil price and increasing domestic production. This should help strengthen the ability of the CBN to foster forex liquidity, and thus help maintain stability in the domestic forex market. If sustained, it should also help improve the value of the naira overtime. Hence, the government should implement proactive and effective policy strategies to, not only, sustain improvements in oil revenue but also boost non-oil revenue.