Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

June 9, 2016

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 25)

Crude oil price continued to increase in the
period under review, reaching its 2016 peak at $50.30 on June 2, 2016.
Specifically, OPEC weekly basket price increased by 1.43 percent from $44.65 on
May 27, 2016 to $45.29 on June 3, 2016. Brent was sold for $49.96
on June 3, 2016. The present rise in crude oil price can be
attributed to oil production shocks in several oil-exporting countries, and the
general expectation of a further cut in output following the OPEC meeting in
Vienna on June 2, 2016. However, the OPEC meeting ended with no agreement on
production quotas. In Nigeria, oil production level increased in the period
under review, following repairs on some of the damaged oil and gas facilities. Precisely,
Nigerias output increased by 200,000 barrels on June 3, 2016 to 1.6 million
barrels.

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Nigeria Economic Review

The global economy grew by 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 (2016Q4) relative to 2.5 percent in 2016Q3, due to rising investment and consumption demands in developed and emerging economies as well as a rise in commodity prices. However, over the entire year, global GDP growth stood at 2.6 percent in 2016, relative to the growth of 3.09 percent recorded in 2015. Notably, output grew progressively in the US over the year, while the steady growth recorded in the UK since the start of the year stalled in 2016Q4. Also, the declining growth recorded in France since 2015 took a positive turn in 2016Q4, the rest of the Eurozone witnessed a fall in output in the quarter. While emerging economies recorded mixed experiences, many Sub-Saharan African countries showed signs of recovery in the period.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 3)

Recently released inflation rate report by the NBS shows a further decline in consumer price index in December 2017. At 15.37 percent, the CPI was 0.53 percentage points lower than the 15.90 percent recorded in November 2017. The food sub-index decreased to 19.42 percent from 20.21 percent, indicating reduced pressure on food prices in the review period. Core sub-index fell slightly to 12.1 percent from 12.21 percent in the preceding month. Going forward, the ability of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to control inflation in 2018 may be hampered by monetary injections by the government and politicians towards budgetary expenditure and election campaigns, respectively.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 45)

Crude oil prices recorded increase during the review week. Global benchmark, Brent price increased from $61.42 to $63.522. Nigerias Bonny light gained 9.6 percent to trade at $64.78 per barrel. The weeks rise was at the backdrop of further prospective cuts agreement at OPECs meeting in November 2017 and political tensions and uncertainties in Saudi Arabia given that these events may likely reduce supply and support demand in the near term. Meanwhile, global crude oil market events have been favorable to Nigeria, as the price of bonny light at approximately $65 per barrel, reflects the highest in more than two years.