As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee left the policy interest rate (MPR) and other parameters unchanged. At 14 percent, the MPR has been left unchanged for the 10th consecutive period1; likewise the CRR at 22.5 percent, Liquidity Ratio at 30.0 percent; and Asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR. All except one member of the MPC agreed to keep rates on hold, mainly in anticipation of a more precise direction of key macroeconomic indicators, including the passage and implementation of the 2018 budget. Complementary factors considered for the hold also points to the current moderation in inflation rate towards single digit, as well as higher reserve levels
Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
Nigerias Petroleum Products Imports statistics show a gradual reduction in the volume and value of petroleum imports (PMS, AGO, HHK) between May and September 2016. Specifically, volume of imports declined by 34.1 percent for PMS, 37.6 percent for AGO, and 60.3 percent for HHK in the period.The significant decline in imports in the reporting periods may be as a result of persistent forex scarcity issues faced by importers. On account of stagnation in domestic production of refined petroleum products, continuous decline in oil imports may create a demand gap with upward pressure on gasoline prices in the economy.
The study conducts a cost-effectiveness analysis on two education interventions in Nigeria: Education Assistance program and the Home Grown School Feeding and Health Program with the aim of increasing school enrollment.
Recent media highlights suggest that there is a prospective decrease in Nigerias budgetary benchmark crude oil production. Precisely, the 1.8 million barrels per day proposed at the Joint OPEC and Non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting, is 18.2 percent lower than the budgetary production benchmark of 2.2 million barrels per day. This followed OPECs recent review to include Nigeria in the ongoing production cut agreement amid concerns of global oil market oversupply, given the constant production increase from Nigeria over the last few months.
External reserve dropped slightly by 0.6 per cent from $28.35 billion in January 22 to $28.19 billion in January 295. Considering the continuous decline, government has stepped up efforts towards financing the deficit in the proposed budget through borrowing. At the forex market, the official exchange rate remained unchanged at N197/$ while the naira depreciated at the parallel market by 2.36 percent from N297/$ to N304/$ between January 22 and 296. Despite the huge spread between the official and parallel market exchange rates, the monetary authorities maintained its fixed exchange rate regime at the official forex market. It is expected that if the demand pressure for dollar persists, the value of naira may decline in the near term.