Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

August 25, 2016

Nigeria Economic Review

This report provides an evidence-based analysis
of the state of the Nigerian economy in a bid to inform economic policies
in Nigeria. The report presents some analyses of significant economic events in
Nigeria within the period, and provides an outlook on what policymakers,
businesses, and individuals should expect in subsequent quarters of 2016. It also provides valuable insights
into potential drivers of the economic trends and outlines expectations for
subsequent quarters of the year. The area of focus are Global Economic
Performance, Domestic Economic Performance, External Sector Performance, and
Sectoral Performance. 

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Nigerias domestic crude production increased significantly in April 2017. OPECs Month-on-Month data shows a 22.6 percent increase to 1.5 million barrels per day constituting the biggest increase among oil producing group. Crude production increased at the backdrop of completion of scheduled maintenance/repairs at the Bonga oil field, implying resumption of crude production by an additional 225,000 barrels. Remarkably, Nigeria is progressively moving towards meeting daily output benchmark/target (2.2 million barrels per day). Given recent boost in domestic crude oil production, considerable effort should be made to improve the countrys refining capacity in order to reduce fuel importation and conserve foreign exchange.

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International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa by 0.2 percentage points, while retaining growth estimates for Nigeria and South Africa in 2017. Precisely, growth rate forecast for Africa was reduced from 2.8 percent in January 2017 forecast to 2.6 percent in April 2017 forecast while growth estimates were retained at 0.8 percent for both South Africa and Nigeria. In contrast, global economic growth outlook was increased by 0.4 percentage points from 3.1 percent to 3.5 percent within the same period. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is hampered by adverse cyclical and supply side factors, weak fiscal buffers and rising public debt amongst non-commodity exporters as well as severe drought was experienced in Eastern and Southern Africa