Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

July 22, 2016

Nigeria Economic Update(Issue 31)

Recent data on Consumer
Price Index (CPI) indicates significant increase in general price level for the
sixth consecutive month. Headline inflation increased by 0.9 percentage points from
15.6 per cent recorded in May to 16.5 percent in June the highest
rate recorded since October 2005 (an 11-year high). The core sub-index
increased from 15.1 percent to 16.2 percent while the food sub-index stood at
15.3 percent, an increase of 0.4 percent from the preceding month of May. Higher
prices of domestic/imported food and other items, as well as increased energy
cost were major drivers of the increase. This is probably explained by the
exchange-rate pass-through, given the significant depreciation of the naira.

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Nigeria Economic Review

Global economic growth remained fairly stable in 2016Q3 with baseline projections for global growth at 3.1 percent and 2.4 percent by International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank respectively. Growth in developed countries was moderate but unevenly distributed: while the U.S and the UK showed improvements, growth in other economies remained tepid. Among emerging countries, India witnessed higher growth while growth in China remained constant but the Chinese Yuan continued to appreciate. Given that India is Nigerias major crude oil importer, improving economic conditions in India may translate into rising demand for Nigerias crude oil. However, the continuous appreciation of the Yuan poses significant inflationary threat in Nigeria given the high level of imports from China. Subdued global demand, weak trade, uncertainties in commodity prices and consequences of the Brexit were the key constraining factors to growth over the period. In addition, growth in Sub-Saharan African countries remained generally slow on the account of low commodity price, political turmoil, and inconsistent government policies.