Data from the September 2023 report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
shows that Nigeria’s oil output rose by 9.3% from 1.08 mb/d recorded in July to 1.18 million barrels per day (mb/d) in August 2023. However, oil output still falls short of the 1.74 mb/d quota allocated to Nigeria by OPEC and far below the 1.69 mb/d assumed in the 2023 budget. In June 2023, OPEC reduced Nigeria’s future quota by over 20% from 1.74 mb/d to 1.38 mb/d , and the new quota will become effective from January 2024 if the output level remains low. This data on crude oil production indicates that Nigeria is not getting the maximum fiscal buffer associated with the recent rise in crude oil, which is above $90 per barrel.
October 9, 2023
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 37)
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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 41)
Latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report by the International Monetary Fund reveals that Nigerias economy will grow by 1.9 percent in 2018 an unchanged stance from earlier projections. However, the figure is 2.9 percentage points lower than the 4.8 percent 2018 estimated growth rate in Nigerias ERGP (Economic Recovery and Growth Plan) 2 showing a very large disparity between domestic and international growth forecasts for Nigeria. The Funds projection however seems to have taken into cognizance underlying factors that could slow growth in the medium term: faster pace of population growth relative to GDP growth3, poor policy implementation, banking system fragilities and foreign exchange market segmentation.
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 19)
Internally generated revenue by 35 states for the 2016 fiscal year increased by 17.5 percent to N802 billion from N683 billion generated in the preceding year. A breakdown of the IGR shows that the increase was driven by PAYE, Direct assessment, Road taxes, Revenue from MDAs and other taxes. The highest and lowest revenue generating states were Lagos (38%) and Ebonyi (0.1%) respectively. An improvement in the efficiency of the tax system could improve the contributions of the IGR to overall government revenue. Particularly, incorporating workers in small stores, agricultural and informal businesses into the tax system; building capacity of tax officials and computerizing their operations; as well as investing in quality data collection and access could provide some quick wins.