Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
June 3, 2016
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 24)
Crude
oil price increased, in the week under review, to its highest price in 2016. Nigerias
bonny light increased by $1.38 from $48.02 per barrel on May 20, 2016 to $49.64
per barrel on May 27, 2016, while Brent crude was sold for $50 per
barrel on May 26, 2016. The catalyst for price gains in the period
under review is the supply-side contractions, with unplanned production shortages
in Nigeria, Canada and Iraq. The upward trend of prices may unlock
more supplies in subsequent weeks, but the OPEC meeting scheduled for June 2,
2016, could moderate the effect. Nigeria is expected to benefit from crude oil
price rising above the $38 per barrel benchmark. Unfortunately, supply
disruptions continue to negatively affect oil revenue and may have contributed
to the depletion of external reserve by over $153 millionthis
week. The federal government, in collaboration with relevant security agencies,
should find a lasting solution to the vandalism of oil pipelines and production
facilities.
Related
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 14)
Recently released report by the National Bureau of Statistics indicates decline in output and contribution to GDP in the Nigeria aviation sub-sector. In real terms, output in the sub-sector decreased annually by 4.9 percent between 2015 and 2016; and declined by 13.3 percent (Year-on-Year) in 2016Q4 the largest quarterly decline in 2016. The sectoral fall in output was supply-side driven: increased cost of operations prompted cut-back on services provided by the sector as well as termination of some aviation operations. Going forward, recent improvement in forex supply in the interbank and BDC channel would enhance forex access to airline operators and facilitate smooth running of the airline industry.
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 52)
Recently released
population estimate figures by the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, show a
significant increase in Nigerias population, based on the 2006 census. Notably,
total population grew by an estimated 40 percent from 2006, to 193 million persons
in 2016. Also, disaggregate demographic data from 2007 to 2016, reveals
an increase in the number of males (74 million to 99 million) and females (71
million to 95 million), with a 2016 gender (males to females) percentage ratio
of 51:49. The high rate of population growth can be attributed to the improvements
in average annual rate of natural increase the difference between
crude birth rate and death rate. As in preceding years, the composition of
children and youths make up the highest share of the population growth. This presents
a potential increase in the rate of labour supply. Going forward, there is need
for the government to support rapid job creation in order to check the
potential upsurge in unemployment rate.