Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
April 28, 2016
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 16)
Nigerias Bonny light price declined by 7.1 percent from $40.19 per barrel on March 24, 2016 to $37.32 per barrel on April 1, 20162. OPEC weekly basket price also decreased by 3 percent from $35.81 per barrel to $34.74 per barrel within the same period3. The remerged downward trend in crude oil price is traceable to concerns over the likely failure of the oil production freeze deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran4. The outcome of the oil production freeze meeting which is scheduled to hold on April 17, 2016, will give further direction for oil supply regulation.
Related
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 23)
Recent Data on Nigerias Real GDP growth rate (Year-on-Year)
declined by 2.47 percentage points, from 2.11 per cent in 2015Q4 to -0.36
percent in 2016Q11. This is the lowest GDP growth rate since 2004Q2
(-0.81 percent). The Oil sector continued to contract, as -1.89 percent growth
was recorded in 2016Q1. The negative growth witnessed in the oil sector was
likely driven by the fall in global oil prices by $9.732 and decline
in domestic crude oil production, relative to preceding quarter. Similarly, the
Non-oil sector witnessed a negative growth as it declined by 3.32 percentage
points from 3.14 percent in 2015 Q4 to -0.18 percent in 2016Q1. The underperformance in the non-oil sector was
driven by significant contractions in financial (by 17.69 percent), manufacturing
(by 8.77 percent), and real estate (by 5.48 percent) sub-sectors. Given that
the present economic fundamentals point to a likely recession in 2016Q2, the
government can stir economic activities by speeding up the budget
implementation process to spur growth in the non-oil sector and the economy at
large. More so, the domestic production shock in the oil sector needs to be
addressed to effectively leverage on the present marginal rise in crude oil
prices.
Nigeria Economic Review
The
global economy grew by 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 (2016Q4)
relative to 2.5 percent in 2016Q3, due to rising investment and consumption
demands in developed and emerging economies as well as a rise in commodity
prices. However, over the entire year, global GDP growth stood at 2.6 percent in
2016, relative to the growth of 3.09 percent recorded in 2015. Notably, output grew
progressively in the US over the year, while the steady growth recorded in the
UK since the start of the year stalled in 2016Q4. Also, the declining growth
recorded in France since 2015 took a positive turn in 2016Q4, the rest of the
Eurozone witnessed a fall in output in the quarter. While emerging economies
recorded mixed experiences, many Sub-Saharan African countries showed signs of
recovery in the period.
Re-examining The Determinants Of Current Account Balance In An Oil-Rich Exporting Country
The paper examines the determinants of
current accounts balance in Nigeria with emphasis on oil-related variables.