Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 33)

The Naira sustained its appreciation trajectory at the parallel market in the review week. Precisely, naira gained 13.3 percent (Week-on-Week) to exchange at N390/$ on March 24, 2017. Reduced pressure on the naira followed moderation in speculative activities as a result of increased forex sales and intervention by the CBN (daily intervention of $1.5 million at the interbank market.) The aim of CBN interventions (narrowing the gap between interbank and parallel market rates) seems to be on course with the continued appreciation of the naira at alternative markets. While current approach of the apex bank proves effective in improving international value of naira in the short term, however, it is expedient that the bank articulates clear and credible flexible exchange rate policy to sustain the momentum and enhance confidence in the forex market in the medium term. Nonetheless, the sustainability of the exchange rate gains is partly dependent on the prospect of crude oil price and production which is outside the purview of the monetary authorities.

Power sector analysis shows an increase in power generated by 15.5 percent from 3639.2 megawatt to a peak of 4196.2 megawatt between April 22, 2016 and April 29, 201612, albeit a sharp fall to 25.2 megawatts on April 23, 2016 following a system collapse13. In a bid to attain the targeted 10,000 megawatts by 2019, the Federal Government is set to complete the ongoing 47 power transmission projects across the country, which would boost power supply14. However, the delays in passing the budget into law is a major constraint to the completion of the projects. Thus government needs to speed-up the passage of the 2016 budget to provide the funds to complete the projects.

Nigerias domestic crude production increased significantly in April 2017. OPECs Month-on-Month data shows a 22.6 percent increase to 1.5 million barrels per day constituting the biggest increase among oil producing group. Crude production increased at the backdrop of completion of scheduled maintenance/repairs at the Bonga oil field, implying resumption of crude production by an additional 225,000 barrels. Remarkably, Nigeria is progressively moving towards meeting daily output benchmark/target (2.2 million barrels per day). Given recent boost in domestic crude oil production, considerable effort should be made to improve the countrys refining capacity in order to reduce fuel importation and conserve foreign exchange.