Policy Brief & Alerts
May 17, 2017
Understanding The Ongoing Recession In Nigeria:A Synthesis Of The Events And Policy Options
In
the second quarter of 2016, the Nigerian economy witnessed its first recession
in twenty years due to the interplay of several external and internal factors.
The recession has continued until date and has given rise to relentless
unemployment rate and job losses, double digit and soaring inflation, currency
depreciation and widening gap between parallel market and official exchange
rates, amongst other adverse effect on individuals and firms in the country.
Thus, there is a need to take a deeper look into the nature of the present
recession as well as the impact of monetary and fiscal policy responses thus
far, in order to shed light on the way forward towards tackling the recession
and ensuring sustainable economic growth. This paper analyses the ongoing
recession in the Nigerian economy to provide insights into the interplay of
events and recommendations for policy.
Related
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 10)
Nigerias inflation rate remained above
CBNs bandwidth of 6-9 per cent. Specifically, the inflation rate increased
slightly from 9.55 percent in December 2015 to 9.62 percent in January 20165.
The Core sub-index remains the main driver of inflation in Nigeria. The higher
prices of items in the Core sub-index such as clothing and foot wears are
reflective of higher domestic production costs as a result of the decline in the
value of the naira relative to the dollar. However, in the period, the price
increase was moderated by the stable price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS). Going
forward, without any sustainable policy measure to prevent the further
depreciation of the naira, inflation may exceed the current single digit
inflation rate in the near term.
Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 32)
The naira continued its
downward trajectory this week. Specifically, naira depreciated at the interbank
segment by 3.45 percent to N300/$; and by 3.56 percent to 378/$ at
the parallel segment. Despite the CBNs effort to support the naira
with Forwards and FOREX futures, the excess demand for dollar continues to put
pressure on the naira. Looking forward, the stabilization of exchange rate
depends on the ability of the CBN and government to attract capital inflows;
particularly by raising interest rate, tackling inflation and supporting
economy recovery.