Nigeria confronts a prolonged period of adjustment. For more than a generation, the oil sector generated large volumes of foreign exchange. However, with the recent bust in global oil prices and the resumed restiveness in the oil rich Niger-Delta region since 2014, Nigeria was thrust into macroeconomic crisis. Nearly four years on, we argue that policymakers effectively responded to the dual shocks mainly through import compression. However, the scope for continued import compression is now distinctly limited. For Nigeria to grow and prosper, the long-discussed diversification of the export base must occur via rapid expansion of non-oil exports.
Policy Brief & Alerts
This Paper examines the response of the Nigerian government to the ongoing recession in the domestic economy, particularly in the context of the recently released Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) for 2017-2020. It also provides an analysis of key questions regarding the suitability, achievability, and prospect of the ERGP. The second section of the brief runs through the state of the Nigerian economy with a focus on the cause and drivers of the ongoing recession. The third section reviews the objectives, implementation strategy, and expected outcomes of the ERGP over the medium-term. The fourth section weighs on the potentials of the ERGP by analyzing some pertinent questions: Is the proposed recovery plan and policies well-targeted to address prevailing economic crises in Nigerian economy?
This brief examines the challenges in the discharge of statutory transparency roles by strategic regulatory institutions in the oil sector and also identifies policy interventions to improve access to information on key oil sector processes and transactions.