The CBN quarterly consumer expectation survey shows that consumers expressed optimism as outlook for the third quarter of 2018 was positive. Relative to 2018Q2, consumer index increased from -6.3 index points to 1.5 index points.1 Some respondents attributed their increased confidence to improved economic conditions. Consumers also had a favourable outlook for the next quarter and the next 12 months at 24.7 and 30.1 points respectively, owing to expected increase in net household income and the anticipated improvement in Nigeria’s economic conditions. With rallying global oil prices and some stability in the Naira buttresses consumers’ economic expectations, some indicators cast gloomy prospects. These indicators include: capital flow reversals from Nigeria due to consecutive increases in the United States’ benchmark interest rate, as well as Nigeria’s depleting external reserve, declining equities market performance, and uncertainties in the political environment in lieu of the 2019 general elections
Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
This brief examines two policy alternatives which government can adopt in order to increase the enrollment of girls in the primary school and also help eliminate gender disparity in Nigerian schools: Provide free primary education with Stipends or provide free primary education with Transportation.
Power sector analysis shows an increase in power generated by 3.01 percent from 2903.5mw to 2991.8mw between July 1, 2016 and July 8, 2016, with a peak of 3260.8mw on July 5, 2016. This is however, still below the highest (5074.7mw) recorded in February, 2016. The increase reflects improved use of hydro (water) for power generation. The easing out of gas constraint occasioned by recent pipeline repairs have also contributed to the increase in power generation. Improvements in power generation would be sustained if hydro measures are complemented with fast-tracked repairs on damaged gas channels and intensified efforts at tackling pipeline sabotage.
In the second quarter of 2016, the Nigerian economy witnessed its first recession in twenty years due to the interplay of several external and internal factors. The recession has continued until date and has given rise to relentless unemployment rate and job losses, double digit and soaring inflation, currency depreciation and widening gap between parallel market and official exchange rates, amongst other adverse effect on individuals and firms in the country. Thus, there is a need to take a deeper look into the nature of the present recession as well as the impact of monetary and fiscal policy responses thus far, in order to shed light on the way forward towards tackling the recession and ensuring sustainable economic growth. This paper analyses the ongoing recession in the Nigerian economy to provide insights into the interplay of events and recommendations for policy.