The CBN quarterly consumer expectation survey shows that consumers expressed optimism as outlook for the third quarter of 2018 was positive. Relative to 2018Q2, consumer index increased from -6.3 index points to 1.5 index points.1 Some respondents attributed their increased confidence to improved economic conditions. Consumers also had a favourable outlook for the next quarter and the next 12 months at 24.7 and 30.1 points respectively, owing to expected increase in net household income and the anticipated improvement in Nigeria’s economic conditions. With rallying global oil prices and some stability in the Naira buttresses consumers’ economic expectations, some indicators cast gloomy prospects. These indicators include: capital flow reversals from Nigeria due to consecutive increases in the United States’ benchmark interest rate, as well as Nigeria’s depleting external reserve, declining equities market performance, and uncertainties in the political environment in lieu of the 2019 general elections
Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates
Public Debt Stock and Debt Servicing: Public debt stock has steadily increased overtime; reaching over N12, 000 billion naira by 2015Q4. With the persistent fall in crude oil price and the attendant d
Recently released data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that there was significant increase in Nigerias total merchandise trade for 2016Q3. Basically, the total merchandise trade increased (quarter-on-quarter) by 16.29 percent to N4, 722 billion in 2016Q3;owing to 29.1 percent increase in exports and 6.2 percent rise in imports. Oil exports increased by 31 percent to N1, 943 billion, while non-oil exports increased by 20.5 percent to N440 billion. However, on the aggregate, Nigeria recorded yet another trade deficit of N104 billion, indicating continuous higher imports relative to exports. Overall, though there is improvement in the performance of non-oil sector, however, this is insufficient to effectively complement the loss in oil trade sustained since the beginning of oil price crash. This suggests that diversification into non-oil sector may not be able to rescue the economy in the short term. However, while the diversification efforts should be sustained, eliminating hurdles in oil production may be instrumental to higher exports, especially as oil price increase is gaining momentum.
Recently released Nigerias petroleum imports data, show a significant decline in the quantity and value of petroleum import products (PMS, AGO and NHK) between 2015 and 2016. Specifically, value of imports significantly declined year-on-year (January to April) by 30.4 percent to N571 billion in 2016. The huge decline in the import of (refined) petroleum products likely reflects the lower (unrefined) crude oil production/exports. Furthermore, it is likely that the import of petroleum products could decline in subsequent years; however, this is dependent on the prospects of the three domestic refineriesbeing refurbished.
Recent report in the media highlights that Nigerias GDP has dropped to $296 billion in 2016, in contrast to the $481 billion recorded in 20151 and Nigeria has lost its position as Africas largest economy to South Africa. This conclusion was based on the computation of GDP with current naira-dollar exchange rate. However, while the naira has significantly lost its official value since the adoption of a flexible exchange rate, estimating GDP merely with a single exchange rate figure (rather than its yearly average) cannot be regarded as an appropriate method to conclude on Africas largest economy.