Data from the September 2023 report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
shows that Nigeria’s oil output rose by 9.3% from 1.08 mb/d recorded in July to 1.18 million barrels per day (mb/d) in August 2023. However, oil output still falls short of the 1.74 mb/d quota allocated to Nigeria by OPEC and far below the 1.69 mb/d assumed in the 2023 budget. In June 2023, OPEC reduced Nigeria’s future quota by over 20% from 1.74 mb/d to 1.38 mb/d , and the new quota will become effective from January 2024 if the output level remains low. This data on crude oil production indicates that Nigeria is not getting the maximum fiscal buffer associated with the recent rise in crude oil, which is above $90 per barrel.
October 9, 2023