Africa enters 2022 with a long and urgent to-do list. In this blog, Adedeji Adeniran joins other experts to outline key political, economic, security and health issues the continent must contend with as it maps its COVID-19 recovery and post-pandemic reality.

TRADE

Africa remains underrepresented in global trade, accounting for 2.19% of global exports and 2.85% of global imports in 2020. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) can reverse this trend if it is effectively implemented. Launched in January 2021, the agreement is a crucial step towards boosting regional trade and economic development, but full trading activity is yet to commence due to ongoing negotiations on various protocols.

Concluding negotiations on the agreement on rules of origin (the “legal provisions used to determine the nationality of a product in the context of international trade”) and protocols on trade in e-commence and services is a priority. While these are unavoidably complex, the strain on economic growth due to COVID-19 necessitates the acceleration of the AfCFTA.

The newly launched Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) holds potential: the platform, developed by Afreximbank and the AfCFTA Secretariat, is expected to bolster intra-African trade by facilitating simpler and secure cross-border payments and reducing payment transaction costs by $5 billion annually. The African Trade Gateway, AfCFTA Adjustment Facility and Trade Finance Facility are also expected to take off, making 2022 a promising year for the effective operation and success of regional economic initiatives. However, it will take much longer for the continent to fully recover from the economic shocks of the pandemic.

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With the explosion in digital technologies and data, countries across are grappling with effective ways to address the threats emerging in the digital space as well as provide supportive structure for digital technologies uptake. At present, at least 66 percent of countries in the world has at least a form of data protection laws. By data governance, we mean the processes and laws available in managing the availability, usability, integrity, and security of the data in the digital economy. African continent is not left out in the emerging structure with also proliferation of data governance and policies. However, UNCTAD report in 2020 noted that African region has the lowest adoption rate of the new technology and data protection laws.

CSEA has collected vast dataset to dive deep into the scope and coverage of digital development and evolution of data governance principles in Africa. This is under our project - Strengthening Data Governance in Africa. The Digital Governance Index was designed to evaluate Africa's level of digital development. The Index covers 54 African economies and is derived utilizing 21 dimensions to assess performance across three indicators

We performed detailed analytics (click here) on cross-country performance in these indicators.

The index is expected to be an indicator for assessing African’s digital evolution and uptake. This will help to pinpoint early and late adopters of the digital space as well as their pace. With awareness of the Digital Governance Index, governments and key stakeholders can adapt and integrate policy initiatives to strengthen requisite skills, provide efficient and inclusive digital services to all; bridge digital divides to order to fulfill the principle of leaving nothing behind while fostering economic development. Digital Governance Index will provide policymakers at national and regional level with information to support decision on digitalization policies.

The Covid-19 pandemic occurred at a time when sovereign debt had already increased substantially in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Between 2010-2017, government debt as a share of GDP averaged 34.5% in SSA but increased significantly to 51.5% in 2019 (IMF 2021a, p. 25). Similarly, in SSA, official external debt as a share of GDP averaged about 15% between 2010-2017 but rose substantially to 23.6% in 2019 (IMF 2021a, p. 27). One main reason behind these accumulated debt levels was a shift in the debt structure from concessional towards more non-concessional financing with relatively higher interest rates. Increased debt ser-vice payments diminished fiscal space in most SSA countries. Moreover, non-concessional financing includes private credit, such as Eurobond issuance. Another reason is the growing momentum to close the continent’s infrastructure deficit, which the African Development Bank (AfDB) has estimated will cost about US$130 to US$170 billion annually (AfDB 2019).

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The Nigerian health system has suffered several setbacks. It is vastly under-resourced in terms of personnel and medical infrastructure. While this is a widespread problem, conditions in rural areas are often far worse compared to urban ones. Nigeria’s poor health system has resulted in penurious outcomes, prompting stakeholders to call for immediate government intervention. Yet, the government’s health expenditure is still significantly lower than the World Health Organization’s (WHO) recommendation of 15% of the annual budget.

Over the decades, the migration of medical doctors from Nigeria has increased. The NOI Poll in 2018 revealed that 88% of doctors in Nigeria were seeking employment abroad. Furthermore, between 2015 and 2021, about 4,528 Nigerian-trained doctors have migrated to the United Kingdom (UK). Even with the pandemic and existing health burdens in Nigeria, doctor’s migration has increased. This worrying trend exacerbates an already deteriorating health system. And it is unlikely to stop, as Nigerian doctors continue to seek better working conditions abroad.

Health Personnel Shortage and Migration

A WHO report revealed that Nigeria has a Doctor-Patient ratio of 4 doctors per 10,000 patients and five hospital beds per 10,000 patients.

With over 200 million people, it would take about 25 years to produce enough doctors to cater to the population, asserts the Nigerian Medical Association (NMA). This dire situation can only lead to poor health outcomes. High child and maternal mortality rates are preventable if doctors are readily available. The link between the number of physicians and mortality rates has been documented in the literature, reflecting the negative consequences of doctor shortages in Nigeria.

The primary reason for the large number of medical doctors emigrating each year is the lack of adequate funding in the sector. The 2021 health expenditure accounted for only 7% of the total budget. It is less than the 15% agreed on by African leaders and the WHO in 2001.

According to the NMA, approximately 2000 doctors leave the country each year. The average number of doctors trained in Nigeria and currently practising in the United Kingdom (UK) increased significantly between July 2020 and May 2021 – ranking Nigerian doctors the third highest in the UK.

In 2020 the highest monthly earnings of a Nigerian doctor were about USD 1,365. In Sierra Leone, a doctor earns up to USD 2,000, while doctors in the UK, United States, and Saudi Arabia earn up to ten times what doctors earn in Nigeria. It automatically increases the appeal of emigrating to these countries. Further, the lack of equipment in hospitals in Nigeria and poor working conditions mean that the opportunity cost of emigration is significantly low.

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Of all the countries on the coast of the Mediterranean sea, Egypt seems to have been the first in which either agriculture or manufactures were cultivated and improved to any considerable degree. Upper Egypt extends itself nowhere above a few miles from the Nile and in Lower Egypt that great river breaks itself into many different canals, which, with the assistance of a little art, seem to have afforded a communication by water-carriage, not only between all the great towns, but between all the considerable villages, and even to many farm-houses in the country... The extent and easiness of this inland navigation was probably one of the principal causes of the early improvement of Egypt.

--- Adam Smith, Book 1, Chapter 3. The Wealth of Nations

After months of delays caused by the global coronavirus pandemic, African countries began trading officially under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on New Year's Day 2021. Every African country - apart from Eritrea - has signed on to the framework agreement and 34 have ratified it. Although the launch is largely symbolic with full implementation of the deal expected to take several years.

The new continent-wide free trade area (FTA) aims to create a single market of 1.3 billion people, facilitate the cross-border movement of people, goods and services, and investments, and establish a $3.4 trillion economic bloc, which will be the largest FTA since the founding of the World Trade Organisation.

In order to boost the trade within the continent, member countries plan to remove 90% of tariff lines. Compared to other regions, the intra-trade level in Africa is significantly lower. Between 2015 and 2017, intra-African exports and imports averaged around 2 percent compared to 47 percent in America, 61 percent in Asia, 67 percent in Europe, and 7 percent in Oceania [the East Asia/Pacific region], according to the United Nations Conference on Trade  and Development (UNCTAD).

Unlocking intra-regional trade is central to African economic growth. According to World Bank estimates, the free trade agreement will boost intracontinental exports by over 81%, exports with non-African countries by 19%, and could lift tens of millions of Africans out of poverty by 2035.

While the AfCFTA holds much promise for boosting socio-economic development in African countries, several historic challenges must be overcome if the bloc is to reach its full potential. One of such obstacles is Africa’s lack of regional connectivity due to poor transport and logistics infrastructure, which is sure to hinder the free flow of goods, services and people across neighbouring countries on the continent.

Infrastructure deficits and fragmented supply chains

The challenge of moving goods around Africa is not a problem new to the continent and now represents a major factor hindering the prospects of the AfCFTA, particularly in forming regional manufacturing supply chain clusters. Africa’s huge infrastructure gap, particularly for transport, as well as the fragmentation of supply chains have significantly hampered regional trade and economic integration for decades.

Although some parts of the continent - neighbouring countries in the East African region to be precise - are doing far better with cross-border trade and movement, the majority of African countries have ranked low on indicators such as cross-border clearance processes; quality of trade; infrastructure; inconsistent tax regimes; and consignments’ track and trace mechanisms, according to the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index. Only South Africa ranks among the top 50 (33rd) globally as of 2018.

Digitalisation in the logistics sector in Africa is helping to address some of these challenges and in addition, the proliferation of digital logistics startups - such as Kobo360 - have helped facilitate connectivity vital to the flow of goods within the region and across borders. But inadequate infrastructure remains a significant challenge.

Investment crucial for easy navigation across Africa under AfCFTA

Most of Africa lags global counterparts in coverage of key infrastructure classes, including road and rail transportation. For instance, a 1,000-kilometer journey reportedly takes about six days in Africa compared to 48 hours in other parts of the world.

The problem has lingered for decades and is compounded by the fact that African governments are not sufficiently investing in connectivity and infrastructure, although there have been efforts to address this in recent years. In 2012, African heads of state and government endorsed the Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA), an ambitious long-term plan for closing Africa’s infrastructure gap, consisting of over 400 projects, including 236 for transportation.

Furthermore, a McKinsey report notes that there has been a steady increase in infrastructure investment on the continent over the past 15 years, and international investors have both the appetite and the funds to spend much more across the continent, but Africa has had a challenge of moving projects to financial close, with 80 percent of infrastructure projects failing at the feasibility and business-plan stage.

The report further adds, on what it terms “Africa’s infrastructure paradox”, that there is need and availability of funding, together with a large pipeline of potential projects, but not enough money is being spent. According to the Infrastructure Consortium for Africa, $81.6 billion of investments were committed to infrastructure development in Africa in 2017, 41.7 percent of which went to transport projects. However, this figure is still far short of the $130-$170 billion per year to 2025 needed to close Africa’s infrastructure gap.

According to UNCTAD, one reason for this lack of adequate investment in infrastructure and connectivity in Africa is that development banks in the region remain undercapitalised. For instance, the East African Development Bank only has assets of $390 million while the largest on the continent, the Development Bank of Southern Africa, is valued at $5.3 billion. The continental African Development Bank (AfDB) has total assets valued at under $50 billion, which is significantly far off the Asian Development Bank’s over $271 billion in total assets.

With the enforcement of the AfCFTA, the urgency for infrastructure development in Africa is even more compelling. The continental trade agreement seeks to create a single market for goods and services, and thus provides an opportunity for African governments to actively confront the transportation and logistical challenges that have long plagued intra-regional trade and movement on the continent.

Making AfCFTA work requires easy intra-Africa navigation - a non-restricted flow of goods, services, and people within and across national borders. To reverse the enormous problem of infrastructure deficits and the fragmentation of supply chains, massive and strategic investments in connectivity and infrastructure are needed but without increasing the risk of  debt distress.

There is also plenty of room for the private sector to play an increased role in the funding of the continent’s infrastructure development. Of the $81.6 billion invested in 2017, the private sector accounted for just 2.8 percent compared to 42.1 percent from national governments, 23.8 percent from China, and 24.1 percent from bilateral donors, multilateral agencies and African institutions.

African governments need to urgently mobilise the continent’s financial resources to finance the regional infrastructure needed to make AfCFTA a game-changer it has been much-touted to be. Without this, the continent-wide agreement is sure to be constrained by the gap in transport infrastructure and trade integration in Africa will remain a pipe dream for the foreseeable future.