Nigeria—the largest economy in Africa—signed the AfCFTA on July 7, 2019, becoming the 34th member of the trading bloc. Under the AfCFTA, Nigeria stands to gain from increased access to cheaper goods and services from other African countries, as its intra-African trade is currently low: Indeed, as of 2018, Nigeria’s imports from the African region relative to total imports was at 3.2 percent while the share of Nigeria’s exports to the African region relative to total exports was 13.2 percent. Moreover, in 2020, Nigeria’s main trading partner was actually China.

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As the world continues to recover from the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic, coping mechanisms such as increased use of virtual workspaces, online marketplaces and e-governance have become the norm. While this presents opportunities to revamp economies and streamline public service delivery, it may also heighten exposure to cybercrime.

In Africa, many countries have seen a rise in reports of digital threats and malicious cyber activities. The results include sabotaged public infrastructure, losses from digital fraud and illicit financial flows, and national security breaches involving espionage and intelligence theft by militant groups.

Addressing these vulnerabilities requires a greater commitment to cybersecurity. This requires enforceable policy safeguards, risk prevention and management approaches, along with technologies and infrastructure that can protect each country's cyber environment, as well as individual and corporate end-user assets.

However, the latest Global Cybersecurity Index (GCI), released this June by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), suggests Africa's levels of commitment to cybersecurity – as well as capacity for response to threats – remain low compared to other continents.

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This inception report focuses on the emerging trends in Africa’s digital and data environment. The study builds a case for mobilizing action at both regional and national levels, to strengthen data governance frameworks in Africa, particularly in view of the ongoing regional economic integration initiatives under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). We advocate for stronger data policies in Africa as a development tool for bridging identified gaps that could put the region at a disadvantage, and as a means of building greater confidence which is a requirement for growing the digital economy. The findings suggests that while the potential of digital technologies is yet to be fully exploited in Africa, the region has witnessed a surge in the use of digital platforms and tools in recent years. This has influenced the ease and manner in which data gathering and exchange occurs, resulting in heightening concerns around potential data abuse. In response, national efforts and domestic legal frameworks on data governance are gradually increasing in Africa, although rather slowly as there are still significant policy gaps. While the magnitude of the data policy gaps vary across different member countries, African countries have so far largely been unable to match the pace of change in the new data driven global economy. There is also a lack of uniformity in policy approaches being adopted by member states.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had severe impacts on the macroeconomy and the livelihoods of households globally. The restrictions to movement alongside the associated uncertainty stimulated a sudden decline in the demand for commodities and disrupted production, leading to the underutilisation of capital and labour. More specifically, as governments sought to curb the spread of the virus by implementing workplace and school closures, and encouraging social-distancing practices, these policies led to a significant impact on all economies. A recent study on the impact of COVID-19 on gross domestic product (GDP) and trade finds that the pandemic caused a 2% decline in global GDP, a 2.5% decline in the GDP for developing countries, and a 1.8% for industrialised countries.

For Nigeria, which saw its first case in February 2020, the economic contraction was severe and sustained leading to a recession in the third quarter of 2020. The economic contraction is the result of the adoption of lockdown measures – which had an impact on nearly all sectors of the economy – along with the pandemic’s impact on partner economies engaged in international trade and those providing foreign investment. Meanwhile, the income of the majority of citizens has been affected, because a large share of informal workers has no recourse to unemployment insurance or paid leave of absence.

This article was first published on SAIIA

Economic development is linked with increased state capacity including the ability to mobilise domestic tax resources. For many developing countries, high levels of informality are a major constraint in this regard. Yet, economic incentives like changing the tax rate or increasing the filling and audit rate can be ineffective in a highly informal economic structure.

In this paper, we explore possible roles for behavioural interventions such as sharing information about peers’ tax behaviour to engineer higher tax compliance. Based on an artefactual field experiment among own account workers in Nigeria, we find that information interventions can play an important role in ensuring tax compliance.

Specifically, targeting information around what people can directly observe can be a way to improve tax compliance. Providing information on punishment or good practices that appeal to feelings of morality yields higher tax compliance.

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