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Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 48

The inflation expectations survey report by the Central Bank of Nigeria revealed that 85.1% of households and 80.7% of businesses believe the current inflation rate is high, with households primarily driving this sentiment. Inflation perception refers to how individuals or groups understand, interpret, and feel about the current rate of inflation. It reflects subjective views on how changes in the prices of goods and services affect purchasing power. The report shows that large businesses had the highest inflation perception in November at 87%, followed by micro businesses at 82.3%, medium businesses at 79.4%, and small businesses at 78.4%. By settlement type, urban residents reported a higher inflation perception (85.5%) than rural residents (84.4%). Among households, those earning between ₦100,000 and ₦150,000 per month had the highest inflation perception at 88.7%, while those earning above ₦200,000 had the lowest. Key drivers of inflation perception include rising energy and transportation costs, insecurity, and exchange rate depreciation. High inflation perception can weaken consumer and business confidence, widen income inequality, and exacerbate the rural-urban divide, potentially fueling economic dissatisfaction and social unrest. For businesses, heightened inflation perception could result in job cuts, undermining monetary policy effectiveness and stalling economic growth. To tame inflation expectations, the government needs to prioritize targeted reforms in key sectors including energy and transportation. Additionally, the government needs to implement policies to stabilize the naira and provide support to the most vulnerable households

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Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 47

According to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) November Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria's average daily crude oil output increased by 9,000 bpd, from 1.324 million bpd in September to 1.333 million bpd in October, representing a 0.68 percent gain.3 This is a positive development for Nigeria. However, the rise in oil output is 167,000 bpd below OPEC's 2024 production quota of 1.5 million bpd and 447,000 bpd lower than the Federal Government's 2024 budgeted benchmark of 1.78 million bpd. The country's inability to meet OPEC's quota, as well as the government's projected quota for 2024, can be attributed to multiple factors, including oil theft and the inability of relevant stakeholders or players in the oil industry to act in a timely manner (for example, in procurement), which continue to impede the achievement of both quotas. Such developments could impact the economy negatively, particularly government finances. Specifically, the country's inability to meet the quotas could have a detrimental impact on national reserves and revenue, reducing capital availability to finance developmental projects in the country. Thus, the government must strengthen efforts against oil theft and bunkering by working with local communities and imposing harsher penalties for unlawful operations in oil-producing communities. The government also needs to strengthen existing investment policies to attract private investors who can invest in modern-day oil facilities or infrastructure to increase oil production.

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Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 49

According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigeria's total foreign reserves stood at $40.79 billion on December 19, 2024, up 1.24% from $40.29 billion on the same day the previous month. Compared to December 19, 2023, the nation's reserves increased by 24.36 percent from $32.8 billion in the same period in 2024. The data also shows that the reserves hit its highest level on December 10, 2021, when it was at $40.89 billion. This gain in foreign reserves follows a drop below $34 billion earlier in 2024, when reserves were adversely affected by foreign exchange market pressure and global oil market uncertainty. The CBN's policy reforms to increase remittance inflows, as well as its engagements with International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) and Nigeria's diaspora, all contributed considerably to the increase in reserves. While an increase in reserves is crucial for economic development, a continuous increase at a desirable level is required to signal the nation's financial strength and stability to investors, resulting in increased foreign investment and economic progress. To boost external reserves, the government must expand exports, maintain sustainable levels of foreign debt, and improve its investment climate.

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Nigeria Economic Update Issue 46

The National Bureau of Statistics' report showed that in the third quarter of 2024, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.46%, representing a 0.92 percentage point rise from the 2.54% recorded in Q3 2023. The non-oil sector, the largest contributor to GDP, grew by 3.37% in Q3 2024. Growth in the non-oil sector was driven by financial institutions, information and communication technology, agriculture, and trade, among other sectors.

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Nigeria Economic Update, Issue 45

The National Bureau of Statistics' Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)/Cooking Gas Price Watch for October 2024 showed a 3.2% month-on-month increase in the average cost of refilling a 5 kg cylinder, from N6,699 in September to N6,915 in October. Similarly, the average retail price of refilling a 12.5 kg LPG cylinder rose by 2.58%, from N16,313 in September 2024 to N16,743.55 in October 2024. According to state-level analysis, Borno state recorded the highest petrol prices at N7,939, followed by Yobe state at N7,580, and Benue state at N7,578, while Katsina state had the lowest prices at N6,270, followed by Zamfara state at N6,410, and Delta state at N6,427. The month-on-month increase in petrol prices can be ascribed to global market fluctuations and supply chain interruptions, which have increased the cost of importing LPG. This increase in cooking gas costs has a detrimental impact on household welfare nationwide, particularly for low- and middle-income families that spend a significant portion of their income on cooking fuel. 

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