Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 5)

PUBLICATIONS MACROECONOMIC REPORT & ECONOMIC UPDATES Mar 22, 2016

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 12)

The naira/dollar exchange rate remained largely stable at the parallel market at ?320/$ during the period7, albeit slight fluctuations on February 29, 2016 (?325/$) and March 2, 2016 (?328/$). The decline in the hoarding of foreign currency as well as the substantial reduction in the speculative demand for dollars were the two key factors responsible for the ease of fluctuations in the forex market8. With the slight increase in the price of crude oil, Nigerias foreign reserve slightly grew by $56 million, from 27.81 billion to $27.84 billion9. With the continued increase in the price of crude oil, a modest build-up of foreign reserve to guard against unfavourable commodity price movements is expected in the near term.

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PUBLICATIONS MACROECONOMIC REPORT & ECONOMIC UPDATES Mar 08, 2016

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 11)

In the crude oil market, OPECs weekly basket price increased 1.07 percent from $29.02 per barrel in February 19 to $29.33 per barrel in February 26. A combination of factors were responsible for the slight price increase. First, a decrease in the number of active oil rigs in the US2 (the lowest since 2009) may have marginally eased the glut in the crude oil market. The ongoing efforts by OPEC and other major oil producers such as Russia to freeze oil production have also played a significant role in stemming the downward trend in oil prices. With the current market conditions, the price of crude oil is expected to maintain a fairly stable and modest upward trajectory in the near term.

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PUBLICATIONS MACROECONOMIC REPORT & ECONOMIC UPDATES Mar 03, 2016

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 10)

Nigerias inflation rate remained above CBNs bandwidth of 6-9 per cent. Specifically, the inflation rate increased slightly from 9.55 percent in December 2015 to 9.62 percent in January 20165. The Core sub-index remains the main driver of inflation in Nigeria. The higher prices of items in the Core sub-index such as clothing and foot wears are reflective of higher domestic production costs as a result of the decline in the value of the naira relative to the dollar. However, in the period, the price increase was moderated by the stable price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS). Going forward, without any sustainable policy measure to prevent the further depreciation of the naira, inflation may exceed the current single digit inflation rate in the near term.

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PUBLICATIONS MACROECONOMIC REPORT & ECONOMIC UPDATES Feb 26, 2016

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 9)

The naira depreciated by 8.2 percent from N305/$ on February 5th, to N330/ $ on February 12th 20166. The apex body identified the increased domestic demand for forex to pay for foreign medical treatments and schools fees (15 percent of total demand) 7 as the main drivers. As a result, the apex bank is considering to discontinue the provision of forex for payment of medical bills and school fees abroad and to re-channel the forex towards the manufacturing sector of the economy. With the continuous depreciation of the naira, and the CBNs resistance from calls to devalue the currency, the options for alternatives measures seem to be diminishing.

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PUBLICATIONS MACROECONOMIC REPORT & ECONOMIC UPDATES Feb 16, 2016

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 8)

Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that total capital importation in 2015 fell steeply by 53.5 per cent from $20,750.76 million in 2014 to $9,643.01 million in 20152. This decline was largely driven by a substantial drop in portfolio investment (the largest component of Capital Inflows), which fell by 59.74 percent. The exclusion of Nigeria from the JP Morgan EM Bond index, the slump in crude oil prices, the decision of the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and the capital control measures imposed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) are the notable drivers of the reduced inflow of capital. Going forward, improving the business environment, especially easing foreign exchange controls, would determine the extent to which the economy can attract increased capital inflows.

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PUBLICATIONS MACROECONOMIC REPORT & ECONOMIC UPDATES Feb 08, 2016

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 7)

External reserve dropped slightly by 0.6 per cent from $28.35 billion in January 22 to $28.19 billion in January 295. Considering the continuous decline, government has stepped up efforts towards financing the deficit in the proposed budget through borrowing. At the forex market, the official exchange rate remained unchanged at N197/$ while the naira depreciated at the parallel market by 2.36 percent from N297/$ to N304/$ between January 22 and 296. Despite the huge spread between the official and parallel market exchange rates, the monetary authorities maintained its fixed exchange rate regime at the official forex market. It is expected that if the demand pressure for dollar persists, the value of naira may decline in the near term.

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PUBLICATIONS MACROECONOMIC REPORT & ECONOMIC UPDATES Feb 03, 2016

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 6)

Latest figures of FDI flows to Nigeria show a decline of 27 per cent from $4.7 billion in 2014 to $3.4 billion in 20152, representing its lowest value since 2005. This decline is largely attributed to the oil price slump, which has generally increased uncertainty in the economy, with adverse effects on investors confidence. The fall in FDI flows was witnessed in most resource based economies in Africa, as FDI flows to the continent fell by 31 percent in 2015. The forex controls in place in Nigeria has also exacerbated the uncertainty in economy, and created obstacles for both domestic and foreign investors. Thus a review of the forex restrictions could send positive signals to investors.

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PUBLICATIONS WORKING PAPERS Jan 22, 2016

Trade And Foreign Direct Investment Nexus In West Africa: Does Export Category Matter?

This paper examines the effect of inward FDI in West Africa on exports to EU countries. It investigates from a host country perspective, the impact of FDI on different export categories: primary, intermediate, and final goods.

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PUBLICATIONS MACROECONOMIC REPORT & ECONOMIC UPDATES Jan 22, 2016

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 5)

All Share Index (ASI) and Market Capitalization declined by 13 percent to close at 23514.04 points and N8.09 trillion respectively at the end of the trade session on January 15. The huge drop in the Index, representing a 3-year low, led to the introduction of the Index Circuit Breakers Rule. While this policy measure may prevent huge losses in the stock market, rising concerns about macroeconomic stability in Nigeria may significantly increase the level of volatility in the stock market. This may have substantial adverse implications for investors in the Stock Exchange.

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