The National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) Selected Food Price Watch for August 2024 revealed a significant increase in food prices, indicating a decline in the average Nigerian's welfare. The price of 1 kg of locally produced brown beans increased by 5.31% month-on-month (MoM) from N2,444 in July 2024 to N2,574. Likewise, the price of 12-medium-sized agricultural eggs rose by 5.48% MoM, from N2,170 in July to N2,289 in August. A notable price increase was also recorded in 1 kg of local rice, which rose by 3.65% MoM to N1,831 in August 2024. State-wise, Akwa Ibom recorded the highest price for beans at N3,276, while Adamawa recorded the lowest price at N1,710 per kg. Jigawa State recorded the lowest price of N1,786 for agricultural eggs, while Niger State recorded the highest price at N2,996. These price increases can be attributed to rising transportation costs, instability in the exchange rate of the Naira, and insecurity on farmlands in the country. The continued rise in food prices could have severe consequences for Nigerians' welfare and economic growth. Rising food prices disproportionately affect low-income households, leading to reduced purchasing power, increased food insecurity and malnutrition, and widening inequality. The government must implement policies to improve agricultural productivity in the long run. These should include subsidies for agro-allied industries, increased investment in agricultural infrastructure and reduced tariffs on essential food products. Unemployment rises to 5.3% in Q1 2024

According to the National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation Report for August, headline inflation fell for the second consecutive month in 2024 to 32.15%. This is a 1.25 percentage point decline from 33.40% month-to-month in July. However, on a year-over-year basis, the inflation rate rose by 6.35 percentage points, compared to 25.80% in August 2023. Similarly, food inflation fell to 37.52%, a 2.01 percentage point decline from 39.53% month-to-month in July but an 8.18 percentage point increase from 29.3% year-on-year in August 2023. The decrease in food inflation can be attributed to lower average costs for products like yam, cassava, and groundnut oil, which resulted from continued agricultural output. On the other hand, rise in year-on-year food inflation could be linked to seasonal variables and an increase in the average costs of identical commodities. While the current decline in inflation is a pos itive development for the economy, a long-term solution is needed to further reduce inflation. Specifically, since the current decline in inflation is primarily driven by agricultural production, the government should increase agricultural production by making significant investments in the agricultural sector, particularly in modern farming techniques, storage facilities, irrigation systems, and rural area infrastructure. This will ensure the year-round supply of food items. Also, the government should stabilize other factors that are driving up inflation, such as exchange rate instability, the energy crisis, and fiscal policy indiscipline

The unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in Q1 2024, up from 5.0% in the previous quarter, while youth unemployment slightly decreased to 8.0%. The labour force participation rate dropped to 77.3% from 79.5%, this was followed by a fall in the employment-to-population ratio to 73.2%. Informal employment remained relatively steady at 92.7%, with the share of self-employed workers dipping to 84%. Urban unemployment increased to 6.5%, and rural unemployment remained at 4.3%

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria's total goods trade stood at ₦31,892.46 billion in Q2 2024, down 3.76% from the previous quarter but up 150.39% from the number reported in Q2 2023. Exports accounted for 60.89% of overall trade, worth ₦19,418.93 billion. Nigeria's export trade was dominated by crude oil (₦14,559.56 billion), accounting for 74.98% of total trade, followed by agricultural goods (₦973.69 billion), raw materials (₦366.91 billion), solid minerals (₦58.56 billion) and manufactured goods (₦480.82 billion). Total imports accounted for 39.11% of total commerce in Q2 2024, totaling ₦12,473.53 billion, a 10.71% decline from Q1 2024. Mineral fuels were the most popular import category, followed by machinery and transportation equipment, chemicals, and allied items, which accounted for 35.40%, 23.08% and 15.12% of total imports respectively. While a decrease in imports may help reduce trade deficits and highlight Nigeria's improving export strength relative to import demand, it also implies slower economic activity or limited access to vital imports such as machinery and transportation equipment. Furthermore, Nigeria's strong reliance on oil exports, which account for nearly 75% of total commerce, indicates that the country's trade performance is extremely vulnerable to global oil price swings, and demand changes. The government must devote its attention to diversification policies that will improve the contribution of non-oil sectors to Nigeria's export base such as agriculture, raw materials, solid minerals and manufactured goods to promote economic stability and resilience to external shocks. 

The naira rebounded against the U.S. dollar, gaining significant value this week, closing at N1,593.32/$1 in the official market.3 This improvement is linked to the recent settlement of a $500 million domestic dollar bond, which was fully subscribed by investors. The move injected confidence into the market and provided a brief cushion for the currency. On September 6, 2024, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) took additional steps to ease pressure on the naira by approving the sale of $20,000 to each Bureau de Change (BDC) operator at a rate of N1580/$1. To stabilise exchange rates and meet the growing demand for invisible transactions, the CBN instructed the operators to maintain a margin of no more than 1%. This intervention comes after months of currency volatility that have put the naira under immense pressure, and by increasing liquidity in the market, the CBN aims to close the gap between official and parallel market rates, which has widened in recent weeks. This, if sustained, could temporarily boost the naira’s value and bring more stability to the foreign exchange market. However, to sustain the positive momentum and strengthen the naira over time, the government needs to implement a more holistic approach that goes beyond periodic interventions. Additionally, the government should intensify its efforts to attract foreign investment by fostering an enabling business environment with policies that promote stability, transparency and growth.