Recent NBS data on Nigerias real GDP growth rate declined from -0.36 percent in 2016Q1 to -2.06 percent in 2016Q2. With negative GDP growth rate in two consecutive quarters, Nigeria records its first recession in 23 years. Both the oil and non-oil sectors continued to contract by -15.59 and -0.20 percentage points, respectively, relative to preceding quarter. The worsening growth rate in the oil sector was largely driven by the decline in domestic crude oil production by 14.5 percent relative to preceding quarter

Recent data by the CBN shows a decline in manufacturing capacity utilization by 2.0 percentage points to 50.7 percent in 2016Q2. Foreign exchange challenges in addition to cash squeeze in the review quarter, led to the decline in capacity utilization. This has hindered activities in the sector while impacting negatively on business confidence. Nonetheless, the CBN recently directed authorized FX dealers to dedicate 60 percent of FX purchases to manufacturers. This policy measure is therefore expected to meet the sectors critical FX need for the purchase of imported raw material and other machineries, while boosting the potential for economic growth in the long term.

Power sector statistics show a significant increase in power generated from August 12 to August 19, 2016. Precisely, power generated increased by 2.2 percent to 3953.6MW(a 4-month high). Increased water reserves in dams for hydro generating plants occasioned by seasonal adjustments (rainy season), led to improved power generation. Additionally, in a bid to further improve and sustain power generation, the federal government received a $100 million credit facility from India. However, consistent power supply could be jeopardized if the development is not aided by improved distribution by DISCOs.

This report provides an evidence-based analysis of the state of the Nigerian economy in a bid to inform economic policies in Nigeria. The report presents some analyses of significant economic events in Nigeria within the period, and provides an outlook on what policymakers, businesses, and individuals should expect in subsequent quarters of 2016. It also provides valuable insights into potential drivers of the economic trends and outlines expectations for subsequent quarters of the year. The area of focus are Global Economic Performance, Domestic Economic Performance, External Sector Performance, and Sectoral Performance. 

Recent report in the media highlights that Nigerias GDP has dropped to $296 billion in 2016, in contrast to the $481 billion recorded in 20151 and Nigeria has lost its position as Africas largest economy to South Africa. This conclusion was based on the computation of GDP with current naira-dollar exchange rate. However, while the naira has significantly lost its official value since the adoption of a flexible exchange rate, estimating GDP merely with a single exchange rate figure (rather than its yearly average) cannot be regarded as an appropriate method to conclude on Africas largest economy.