This brief evaluates the current state of enabling institutions, policies, and citizen engagement, in fostering greater data value creation in the public sector. Based on our analysis of selected sub indicators from the World Bank’s GovTech Maturity Index (GTMI or the Index), we observe that while African countries are investing more in the digital transformation of their public sector, governments in the region have mainly focused on strengthening digital infrastructure to optimise public sector operations and service delivery, but have recorded mixed results in terms of the overall achievement of enabling institutions, policies and citizens’ involvement to harness the potential of public sector data.

This policy insights examines the potential impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area, and its underlying agreement, on biodiversity, agriculture and food security in Africa. It highlights the significant benefits that the implementation of the agreement promises to bring, particularly in the agricultural sector, and the potentially negative effects on Africa’s biodiversity, smallholder farmers and the environment. To mitigate these potentially negative effects, this policy insight recommends various policies aimed at supporting biodiversity-based agriculture, establishing a common approach to intellectual property rights protection, regularly assessing compliance with multilateral environmental
agreements, promoting access to biodiverse and nutritious produce, and investing in
capacity development, research and partnerships.

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The average retail prices per litre of petroleum products such as Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), Automobile Gas Oil (diesel), and Household Kerosene (kerosene) generally increased in October 2023. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the average price of petrol in October 2023 stood at N630.63, indicating an increase of about 0.71% compared with September, when the average price of petrol stood at N626.21. Also, the price of kerosene in October stood at N1303.16, indicating an increase of about 0.32% compared with N1,299.03 recorded in September 2023 on a month-on-month basis. The price of diesel in-creased the most among the three products. Within a month, the price of diesel increased by 12.82%, from N890.80 in September 2023 to N1004.98 in October 2023. The differential increase in the price of the three products could be associated with the initial plan by the government to introduce 7.5% VAT on diesel. However, the plan was paused for six months. There is a high likelihood that the increment experienced in October was caused by the planned proposed VAT policy. With erratic power supply and high dependence on diesel to power generators, the price increment would contribute to an increase in the cost of operation, and firms would push it to consumers in the form of higher prices, thereby further contributing to the high inflation. To ease the burden of the high diesel price of an average Nigerian, there is a need for the government to ensure a stable power supply.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate increased to 27.33% in October 2023 from 26.72% recorded in August 2023 and 21.09% in October 2022. The headline inflation is three times the upper bound inflation target of 9%. The data further show that food inflation stood at 31.52%. Core inflation, which is all item excluding food and energy, rose to 22.58%. Persistent double digit inflation rate erodes household purchasing power at a fast pace, thereby pushing thousands of Nigerians into poverty. If the high inflation, especially food inflation, persists for the next 3 months, insecurity and social unrest would increase at an alarming rate. Prompt action, including implementing social protection programs for the most disadvantaged households and setting up food bank to increase access to quality and nutritional meals, is required from the government. In July, President Tinubu declared state of emergency on food. Three months afterwards, food prices continue the upward trajectory rising from 25.25% in June to 31.52% in October. There is a need for the government to update the nation on the agriculture programme. This is important in unpacking likely drivers of the high food inflation beyond insecurity, flooding, and rising transportation costs. Additionally, the government can offer companies tax breaks and other financial incentives, particularly those about to go out of business due to high cost of operation.

Green hydrogen is a promising alternative towards the global target of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. As such, attention is geared towards green energy hydrogen technologies and markets. Invariably, this also provides investment opportunities for both institutional and private investors. To this end, seventeen green hydrogen markets are studied using network modelling techniques. Among other key findings, Plug Power leads the industry’s returns while Bloom Energy leads its volatilities as net transmitters. Intuitively, these markets serve as signals or yardsticks in identifying performances, developments, investment opportunities and prospects in the green hydrogen industry. Conversely, Fuel Cell Energy and Nikola are the leading net return and volatility receivers respectively. Nonetheless, the outbreak of the coronavirus altered the nature of connectedness existing in the renewable green hydrogen industry. This is further confrmed using the Welch (two samples) test. Besides, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic strengthened and improved the industry’s overall connectedness. Generally, vital evidence for understanding the green hydrogen industry is presented and discussed. Evidence-based Investment and portfolio management policy implications and recommendations are made.

Time-of-use pricing in retail electricity markets implies that wholesale market scarcity becomes easily communicated to end consumers. Yet, it is not well-understood if and how the price formation process in retail electricity markets will help to reward the demand for operational flexibility due to growth in intermittent generation. To contribute to this discussion, this paper develops a partial equilibrium model of the retail electricity market calibrated to Chinese data. The paper finds that tariffs in this market may not be significantly suppressed by growth in near-zero costs renewable sources when controlling for flexibility restrictions on thermal generation assets and when a significant curtailment of variable renewable resources exists in the market. In addition, it shows that the price formation process in retail electricity markets which controls for flexibility restrictions on thermal generation while allowing for consumers to respond slowly to price changes is a feasible strategy to reward the demand for operational flexibility. Finally, the paper reveals that while integrating intermittent generation beyond levels which the available storage capacities can accommodate may result in losses to producers, benefits to consumers may offset these losses, leading to overall welfare gains.

Strategic decision-making for sequential move games requires rationality and continuity of ra[1]tionality to guarantee maximum payoffs at all nodes/stages/levels. Rationality and continuity of rationality in a player’s behaviour are not often observed and/or maintained thus, leading to less optimal outcomes. More so, the belief in an opponent’s rationality, on the other hand, co[1]determines the level of effort a player employs while making strategic decisions. Given irratio[1]nality and discontinuity of rationality in a sequential move game with mover advantages, there are strategic steps (algorithms) to convert and/or maintain the mover advantages of an irrational player. In this paper, the conversion strategy algorithms, as well as the optimal strategy algo[1]rithms, are developed using the Beta Limit Sum (BLS) strategy model and the game of strokes. The simulation exercises confirm that the BLS strategy model is an optimal solution for the finite sequential game of strokes. One of the key applications of these strategies is that of resource economics like environmental resources (clean water, air & land). These are public goods, as such, the optimal strategy entails that the community cooperates (as one entity) and takes the same actions or strategy to maintain a healthy and clean state of the communal environmental resources.

This policy insight highlights the impact of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) on various sectors of the African economy and identifies some of the factors limiting the responsible adoption and growth of this technology in Africa. This brief further provides key policy considerations on how Africa can effectively employ the potential of generative AI to drive innovation, productivity, economic growth, and development in the continent. Through infrastructural development, capacity building and regional collaboration, Africa can harness generative AI's transformative power while ensuring its deployment is ethical, inclusive, and aligned with Africa’s unique challenges and goals.

The October 2023 Cadre Harmonisé analysis on food insecurity conducted by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) in partnership with the Nigerian government revealed that 26.5 million Nigerians will face severe food insecurity in 2024, and 9 million children are at risk of malnutrition. This implies that more than 10% of the population will likely experience food insecurity. Food insecurity is concentrated in a few states including Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe. The high level of food insecurity is driven by several factors including insecurity in food-producing areas, climate change impacts, and the rising prices of food. Food access and availability are hampered by insecurity as farmers relocate from the farmland to city centres, where the level of security is much better. With high food insecurity, the country also faces greater risks of health problems associated to malnutrition, a rise in social instability, and rising inequality. Children who are malnourished may have difficulty in learning in school, which exacerbates the poverty cycle. Immediate remedies that involve improving security, expanding social safety nets, diversifying food sources, and investing in agricultural infrastructure and technology are required to confront this impending problem. Long-term approaches like agricultural innovation, and capacity-building initiatives are also desperately needed to support sustainable food security and increase community resilience.