The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) publication on Terms of Trade (TOT) shows a deterioration in Q2 2023. Term of Trade measures the relative price of imports to exports. In April, it was 100.8 and reduced to 100.72 in May. It further reduced to 100.67 in June. As a result, TOT reduced by 0.13 percent on average in Q2 2023.

Data from the September 2023 report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
shows that Nigeria’s oil output rose by 9.3% from 1.08 mb/d recorded in July to 1.18 million barrels per day (mb/d) in August 2023. However, oil output still falls short of the 1.74 mb/d quota allocated to Nigeria by OPEC and far below the 1.69 mb/d assumed in the 2023 budget. In June 2023, OPEC reduced Nigeria’s future quota by over 20% from 1.74 mb/d to 1.38 mb/d , and the new quota will become effective from January 2024 if the output level remains low. This data on crude oil production indicates that Nigeria is not getting the maximum fiscal buffer associated with the recent rise in crude oil, which is above $90 per barrel.

According to the rail transport data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in Q2 2023, the volume of goods/cargos transported for Q2 2023 reached 56,029 tons, compared to 31,197 tons in Q2 2022, showcasing a substantial growth trend. Similarly, goods/cargo revenue collected in Q2 2023 was N188.03 million, up by 105.04% from N91.70 million in Q2 2022. 

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report on Foreign Trade in Goods for the second quarter of 2023, total trade stood at N12.7 trillion, a decline of 7.6% from N13.8 trillion recorded in Q2 2022. Both imports and exports experienced a decrease in year-on-year changes; however, the rate of decline was higher for imports. 

Systematic, quantitative evidence on education system coherence is limited. Prior research has indicated alignment of instructional components, such as curriculum standards, assessments, and teachers’ instruction, is important for children’s learning. This study uses the Surveys of Enacted Curriculum methodology to investigate alignment of instructional components in Nigeria's primary education system. The study analyzes curriculum standards, national exams, and classroom instructional content for mathematics and English language across all six primary-level grades. We find that key foundational mathematics and English language skills are covered by all three components, with some notable omissions on the end-of-cycle English language exams. All three components give high emphasis to the low cognitive demand processes of ‘memorize’ ‘perform’, and ‘demonstrate’, and give very low emphasis to the more demanding cognitive processes of ‘analyze’ and ‘apply to non-routine situations’. Both the curriculum standards and classroom instruction depict a slow pace of content progression across grades, manifested through broad but shallow content coverage. The high alignment suggests the potential for a well-functioning education system, however, low student performance in mathematics and English language exams suggest otherwise. The findings suggest the Nigerian primary education system may be operating in a low-achieving equilibrium in which the system is aligned for low levels of cognitive demand and student mastery.

This Working paper was first published here .

Authors: Adedeji Adeniran, Sixtus Onyekwere, Anthony Okon, Julius Atuhurra, Rastee Chaudhry and Michelle Kaffenberger

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.51% (year-on-year, YoY) in real terms in the second quarter (Q2) of 2023. This growth rate is less than the 3.54% recorded in the Q2 2022 and is primarily driven by the services sector, which recorded a growth rate of 4.42 percent in the period and contributed 58.42 percent to the aggregate GDP. 

The progress and advancement of any given nation is significantly dependent on its human capital, which is cultivated through the provision of high-quality basic education. This is established in the definition of education, which links it to the stock of skills, competencies, and other productivity-enhancing characteristics. Thus, the prioritisation of basic educational policies that tackle significant learning challenges is imperative for propelling human capital advancement in Nigeria.

The July 2023 monthly OPEC oil market report indicates a general increase in international crude oil prices. According to the report, the OPEC reference basket, which reflects the average crude oil prices of OPEC member countries, experienced a month-on-month surge of $5.87 (7.8%), reaching an average of $81.06 per barrel. Concurrently, the ICE Brent front-month contract witnessed a substantial increase of $5.18 (6.9%), reaching $80.16 per barrel.

Nigeria's inflation rate surged by 1.29% points in July 2023 to reach 24.08%, compared to 22.79% in the preceding month, June. This is according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its latest Inflation and Consumer Price Index report. The rise in inflation can be attributed to the drastic impact of the removal of petroleum subsidies and the consolidation of the official currency rate, which affected the price of fuel, transportation, and the general prices of goods and services in the Nigerian economy.