This study revisited the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH) in the presence of structural breaks using the structural break technique of Ditzen et al. (2021). To estimate the impact of tourism on economic growth along the identified structural breaks, we employed Fixed Effects and Feasible Generalised Least Squares methods. Findings showed four structural break dates (1999, 2004, 2009 and 2014), two of which coincided with the Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009) and the Ebola outbreak (2014). Despite the presence of structural breaks, the TLGH remains valid.

READ MORE

Author- Isiaka Raifu Akande

This study investigates the role of institutional quality in the government expenditure-unemployment nexus in Nigeria using different components of government expenditures (total, recurrent, and capital expenditures). Causality tests and the autoregressive distributed lag estimation methods are used to analyse data spanning the period from 1984 to 2019. The key findings are as follows: (i) unidirectional causality runs from unemployment to total and capital expenditure and a partial unidirectional causality runs from recurrent expenditure to unemployment; (ii) total and capital expenditures are pro-employment in the long run, while the recurrent expenditure is only pro-employment in the short run; (iii) institutional quality is detrimental to employment in the long run; and (iv) institutional quality significantly moderates the impact of government expenditure on unemployment in Nigeria. The Nigerian government need to increase pro-employment expenditure and make concerted efforts at improving the institutional quality in Nigeria.

READ MORE

Authors: Isiaka Akande Raifu, Alarudeen Aminu, Joshua Adeyemi Afolabi, Emmanuel Olubowale Obijole

With the widening saving-investment gap and the limited domestic financial resources to drive development imperatives in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), foreign direct investment (FDI) is considered a viable and sustainably promising option for boosting employment generation and closing gender gaps in employment. This paper provides critical insights into the gender and age-based employment effect of FDI in SSA and the role of institutional quality in shaping the relationship. The two-step generalized method of moments modelling framework was adopted to analyse relevant data of 29 SSA countries over the 2000-2021 period. The results revealed that FDI has a significant employment-enhancing effect irrespective of gender and age considerations. We also find that institutional quality amplifies this effect. Efforts should, therefore, be concentrated on improving institutional quality, the success of which will appeal to foreign investors and attract more foreign investments.

READ MORE

Authors: Joshua Adeyemi Afolabi and Isiaka Akande Raifu
 

Nigeria’s external reserves rose slightly to $34.49 billion on March 21, 2024. The increment could be attributed to multiple factors including inflow of foreign capital and an increase in global oil prices. Given the crucial role of foreign reserves in fulfilling import obligations and stabilizing exchange rates, the government must prioritize initiatives to bolster reserves and prevent depletion. A stronger Naira against the US Dollar hinges on the country's foreign reserve levels. Additionally, diversifying export earnings beyond crude oil sales, the primary source of foreign earnings, is imperative.

The recent Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that Nigeria recorded a trade deficit of N1.41 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2023 (Q4 2023). In the quarter, Nigeria's total trade was ₦26.80 trillion, implying a 38.24 percent increase from the value recorded in the third quarter of 2023 (N19.38 trillion) and a 128.64 percent increase from the value recorded in the corresponding period in 2022 (11.72 trillion). Total exports stood at N12.69 trillion, and imports at N14.10 trillion.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), in its 293rd meeting held on the 27th of February, raised the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 400 basis points, from 18.75 percent to 22.75 percent. The MPR is the benchmark interest rate set by the CBN for commercial banks to disburse loans to businesses and individuals. The committee also agreed to raise the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), the percentage of a commercial bank's deposits that it must keep in reserve, from 32.5 percent to 45 percent.

This snapshot for March 2024 provides trends, and insights on key macroeconomic indicators such as Inflation, foreign reserves, currency in circulation and crude oil prices.

In today's fast-paced world, access to accurate and timely data is crucial for effective governance and decision-making. Policymakers often struggle to access the data they need to make informed decisions and serve the public effectively. The problem lies not in the lack of available data but in its inaccessibility. Unfortunately, many government ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs) in African countries face challenges when it comes to sharing and integrating data. This lack of data interoperability hampers collaboration, slows down processes, and prevents the delivery of efficient public services.

Nigeria and Ghana have experienced a range of economic shocks over the past two decades, including natural disasters, commodity-price fluctuations, financial crises and global economic downturns. These shocks have significantly impacted the economic stability and growth prospects of both countries, emphasising the importance of developing effective resilience strategies. Nigeria and Ghana have implemented monetary and fiscal measures in response to various crises.

This report was first published by SAIIA. READ MORE HERE

_{Image: Getty, Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP}