The Oil market report for the fourth quarter of 2023 by the International Energy Agency indicates that the
growth of global oil demand is expected to slow down by 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024 compared to 2.3 mb/d in 2023. The decline in projected oil demand is due to several factors including slow GDP growth in major economies falling below trend, increased energy efficiency and electrification of vehicle fleets. Conversely, the world oil supply was projected to rise by 1.5 mb/d to a new high of 103.5 mb/d, fuelled by record- setting output from non-OPEC countries like the US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada. OPEC supply is expected to hold steady on previous supply.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation report for December 2023, revealed that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to 28.92 percent. On a Year-on-Year (YoY) basis, the figure is 7.58 percentage points higher compared to 21.34 percent recorded in December 2022 and 0.72 percentage points higher than 28.20 percent recorded in November 2023. The inflation rate is 11.76 percentage points higher than the 2023 budget assumption of 17.16 percent. The food inflation rate rose to 33.93 percent from 23.75 percent in December 2022, representing 10.18 percentage points increase.

According to the 2024 United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects report, global GDP growth is projected to slow from an estimated 2.7 percent in 2023 to 2.4 percent in 2024 and improve moderately to 2.7 percent in 2025. However, the growth projections for 2024 and 2025 are below the pre-pandemic growth rate trend of 3.0 percent. Economic growth in Africa is projected to remain weak, increasing from an average of 3.3 percent in 2023 to 3.5 percent in 2024. Debt sustainability concerns, stricter fiscal and monetary policies, and the weak world economy will continue to hinder Africa’s development prospects.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), capital importation to Nigeria in Q3 2023 stood at $654.65 million, indicating a 36.45 percent decline from $1.03 billion recorded in Q2 2023 and a 43.55 percent decline from $1.16 billion recorded in Q3 2022. The Q3 2023 value is the lowest Nigeria has recorded in any quarter over the last 10 years. This dip in capital importation could be traced to the challenges with foreign exchange which has dipped the confidence of investors and recently led to the exit of some international firms.

In its latest Nigeria Development Update, the World Bank revealed that 24 million Nigerians had been pushed below the poverty line in 5 years - between 2018 and 2023. In tandem, poverty rate in the country has increased to 46 percent in 2023 compared to 40 percent recorded in 2018 with the number of poor people also rising from 79 million in 2018 to 104 million in 2023, a 31.6 percent increase. A rural-urban comparison shows that a larger proportion of poor people reside in rural areas standing at 84 million compared with 20 million poor people residing in urban areas. The increase in poverty rates is attributed to rising inflation, slow economic growth, and a high population growth rate

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, on the 29th of November 2023, presented the 2024 budget before the joint session of the National Assembly. The budget is the largest in Nigeria’s history with a size of N27.5 trillion and a revenue projection of N18.32 trillion resulting in a budget deficit of N9.18 trillion. Revenue comprises oil revenue of N7.69 trillion, non-oil revenue of N3.52 trillion and Independent and other revenue sources of N6.86 trillion. The expenditure consists of capital expenditure of N8.72 trillion, non-debt recurrent expenditure of N9.92 trillion, debt service of N8.49 trillion and statutory transfer of
N1.38 trillion. These estimates imply that debt service is 30% of total expenditure and 95% of capital expenditure.

Data from the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) reveals that 156 oil spill incidents were reported between September and November 2023, costing the waste of about 2792.51 barrels of crude oil. According to the November report, the spill happened at various oil companies’ facilities, with Total Exploration and Production having reported the most significant spillage at 803.06 barrels of crude oil spilled representing about 72.5% of overall oil spillage, followed by Heritage Energy Operational Service Limited, NNPC Exploration and Production Ltd, Nigerian Agip Oil Company, Midwestern Oil and Gas spilled and Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) with about 233 barrels, 30.5 barrels, 26.43 barrels, 7.26 barrels, and 7 barrels of crude oil respectively. Oil spillage has several devastating impacts on the environment, ecosystems, and the livelihoods of local communities.

This brief evaluates the current state of enabling institutions, policies, and citizen engagement, in fostering greater data value creation in the public sector. Based on our analysis of selected sub indicators from the World Bank’s GovTech Maturity Index (GTMI or the Index), we observe that while African countries are investing more in the digital transformation of their public sector, governments in the region have mainly focused on strengthening digital infrastructure to optimise public sector operations and service delivery, but have recorded mixed results in terms of the overall achievement of enabling institutions, policies and citizens’ involvement to harness the potential of public sector data.

This policy insights examines the potential impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area, and its underlying agreement, on biodiversity, agriculture and food security in Africa. It highlights the significant benefits that the implementation of the agreement promises to bring, particularly in the agricultural sector, and the potentially negative effects on Africa’s biodiversity, smallholder farmers and the environment. To mitigate these potentially negative effects, this policy insight recommends various policies aimed at supporting biodiversity-based agriculture, establishing a common approach to intellectual property rights protection, regularly assessing compliance with multilateral environmental
agreements, promoting access to biodiverse and nutritious produce, and investing in
capacity development, research and partnerships.

This paper was first publised by SAIIA. READ MORE