The inflation expectations survey report by the Central Bank of Nigeria revealed that 85.1% of households and 80.7% of businesses believe the current inflation rate is high, with households primarily driving this sentiment. Inflation perception refers to how individuals or groups understand, interpret, and feel about the current rate of inflation. It reflects subjective views on how changes in the prices of goods and services affect purchasing power. The report shows that large businesses had the highest inflation perception in November at 87%, followed by micro businesses at 82.3%, medium businesses at 79.4%, and small businesses at 78.4%. By settlement type, urban residents reported a higher inflation perception (85.5%) than rural residents (84.4%). Among households, those earning between ₦100,000 and ₦150,000 per month had the highest inflation perception at 88.7%, while those earning above ₦200,000 had the lowest. Key drivers of inflation perception include rising energy and transportation costs, insecurity, and exchange rate depreciation. High inflation perception can weaken consumer and business confidence, widen income inequality, and exacerbate the rural-urban divide, potentially fueling economic dissatisfaction and social unrest. For businesses, heightened inflation perception could result in job cuts, undermining monetary policy effectiveness and stalling economic growth. To tame inflation expectations, the government needs to prioritize targeted reforms in key sectors including energy and transportation. Additionally, the government needs to implement policies to stabilize the naira and provide support to the most vulnerable households
According to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) November Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria's average daily crude oil output increased by 9,000 bpd, from 1.324 million bpd in September to 1.333 million bpd in October, representing a 0.68 percent gain.3 This is a positive development for Nigeria. However, the rise in oil output is 167,000 bpd below OPEC's 2024 production quota of 1.5 million bpd and 447,000 bpd lower than the Federal Government's 2024 budgeted benchmark of 1.78 million bpd. The country's inability to meet OPEC's quota, as well as the government's projected quota for 2024, can be attributed to multiple factors, including oil theft and the inability of relevant stakeholders or players in the oil industry to act in a timely manner (for example, in procurement), which continue to impede the achievement of both quotas. Such developments could impact the economy negatively, particularly government finances. Specifically, the country's inability to meet the quotas could have a detrimental impact on national reserves and revenue, reducing capital availability to finance developmental projects in the country. Thus, the government must strengthen efforts against oil theft and bunkering by working with local communities and imposing harsher penalties for unlawful operations in oil-producing communities. The government also needs to strengthen existing investment policies to attract private investors who can invest in modern-day oil facilities or infrastructure to increase oil production.
According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigeria's total foreign reserves stood at $40.79 billion on December 19, 2024, up 1.24% from $40.29 billion on the same day the previous month. Compared to December 19, 2023, the nation's reserves increased by 24.36 percent from $32.8 billion in the same period in 2024. The data also shows that the reserves hit its highest level on December 10, 2021, when it was at $40.89 billion. This gain in foreign reserves follows a drop below $34 billion earlier in 2024, when reserves were adversely affected by foreign exchange market pressure and global oil market uncertainty. The CBN's policy reforms to increase remittance inflows, as well as its engagements with International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) and Nigeria's diaspora, all contributed considerably to the increase in reserves. While an increase in reserves is crucial for economic development, a continuous increase at a desirable level is required to signal the nation's financial strength and stability to investors, resulting in increased foreign investment and economic progress. To boost external reserves, the government must expand exports, maintain sustainable levels of foreign debt, and improve its investment climate.
Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), can significantly influence biodiversity conservation based on their design and implementation. While AfCFTA may encourage countries to strengthen environmental regulations in line with international agreements like the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and CITES, there are concerns that economic goals might overshadow ecological considerations. This could lead to industrial growth in agriculture and mining, risking deforestation, soil erosion, and water pollution. Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, this study employs the Energy-Environment Integrated CGE (EEICGE) Model to analyze AfCFTA’s impacts on Africa's biodiversity. Simulation results for Nigeria indicate a rise in fossil fuel demand and carbon emissions. Stakeholder insights reveal that increased trade may drive intensified land use, contributing to deforestation and biodiversity loss. The study underscores that the impact of AfCFTA on biodiversity is contingent on specific provisions, enforcement capacities, and implementation contexts. To ensure FTAs support sustainable development, strategic measures are vital, including robust environmental regulation enforcement, local community engagement, and investment in renewable energy to meet rising energy needs while adhering to global commitments like the Paris Agreement.
AUTHORS: Augustine Iraoya, Chukwuka Onyekwena, David Okorie, Adedeji Adeniran
This paper was first published HERE
The National Bureau of Statistics' report showed that in the third quarter of 2024, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.46%, representing a 0.92 percentage point rise from the 2.54% recorded in Q3 2023. The non-oil sector, the largest contributor to GDP, grew by 3.37% in Q3 2024. Growth in the non-oil sector was driven by financial institutions, information and communication technology, agriculture, and trade, among other sectors.
In Africa, the digital economy, which refers to all economic activities facilitated by digital technologies and big data, is booming. This is a result of digital technology’s capability to transform economies and societies, influencing how we work, live, and interact. Africa’s digital economy is a boost to the continent’s economy. International Finance Corporation (2020) reveals that Africa’s digital economy grew from $100 billion to $115 billion, representing a 15% increase between 2019 and 2020. It further projects that Africa’s digital economy has the potential to contribute $180 billion and $712 billion to the continent’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 2025 and 2050, respectively.
The role of data, in the public and private sectors, is central to informing strategy, shaping decision and policy-making, creating value, driving innovation, sustaining profit-making and promoting economic development.
This Brief was written by Kunle Balogun
The National Bureau of Statistics' Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)/Cooking Gas Price Watch for October 2024 showed a 3.2% month-on-month increase in the average cost of refilling a 5 kg cylinder, from N6,699 in September to N6,915 in October. Similarly, the average retail price of refilling a 12.5 kg LPG cylinder rose by 2.58%, from N16,313 in September 2024 to N16,743.55 in October 2024. According to state-level analysis, Borno state recorded the highest petrol prices at N7,939, followed by Yobe state at N7,580, and Benue state at N7,578, while Katsina state had the lowest prices at N6,270, followed by Zamfara state at N6,410, and Delta state at N6,427. The month-on-month increase in petrol prices can be ascribed to global market fluctuations and supply chain interruptions, which have increased the cost of importing LPG. This increase in cooking gas costs has a detrimental impact on household welfare nationwide, particularly for low- and middle-income families that spend a significant portion of their income on cooking fuel.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Premium Motor Spirit (Petrol) Price Watch report, the average price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) rose by 14.98% in October to N1,184.83, from N1,030.46 in September, this reflects an 87.88% increase from N630.63 in October 2023. Across the six zones, the South-East recorded the highest average retail price at N1,256.76, while the North Central zone had the lowest price at N1,132.94. Among states, Ebonyi had the highest retail price at N1,292.86, followed by Jigawa at N1,288.18 and Borno at N1,283.79. In contrast, Delta had the lowest petrol prices at N1,050.00, followed by Nasarawa at N1,063.68, and Lagos at N1,080.95. The government's policy to establish market-based pricing and the withdrawal of subsidies in May 2023 has contributed to the ongoing rise in fuel costs. The high cost of petrol has contributed to the high cost of living by increasing transportation costs, and operational expenses for businesses. This has disproportionately affected small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) which lack the resources to absorb these costs, resulting in lower profitability and layoffs. Given the consequences of rising PMS prices, the government needs to provide targeted support for low-income households, encourage private sector investment in refineries, rehabilitate existing refineries to meet domestic gasoline demand, and possibly cut costs.
Public procurement is an important component of governance, as it comprises purchases by a government to ensure quality and efficient public service delivery. The public procurement process requires technical competence in various areas, including financial, legal, administrative, sector-specific knowledge, and an understanding of local and global supply chains from where the public goods and services will be sourced. In this regard, the human resource system and skill development programs, often referred to as human development, are part of extensive public procurement reforms. Appiah (2011) argued that the effective application of procurement regulations requires a well-trained workforce, and human resource development initiatives must be periodic and consistent, given the constant evolution in the budgeting system or political and economic environments.
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