The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook Update released in January 2024, estimated that Nigeria grew at 2.8 percent in 2023 and reviewed its 2024 economic growth forecast downward by 0.1 percent from 3.1 percent projected in October 2023 to 3.0 percent in 2024. Persistent macroeconomic weaknesses, high levels of public debt, poor infrastructure, political unpredictability, and external shocks like rising global geopolitical tension are some possible causes of this decreased economic growth

The Oil market report for the fourth quarter of 2023 by the International Energy Agency indicates that the
growth of global oil demand is expected to slow down by 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024 compared to 2.3 mb/d in 2023. The decline in projected oil demand is due to several factors including slow GDP growth in major economies falling below trend, increased energy efficiency and electrification of vehicle fleets. Conversely, the world oil supply was projected to rise by 1.5 mb/d to a new high of 103.5 mb/d, fuelled by record- setting output from non-OPEC countries like the US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada. OPEC supply is expected to hold steady on previous supply.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation report for December 2023, revealed that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to 28.92 percent. On a Year-on-Year (YoY) basis, the figure is 7.58 percentage points higher compared to 21.34 percent recorded in December 2022 and 0.72 percentage points higher than 28.20 percent recorded in November 2023. The inflation rate is 11.76 percentage points higher than the 2023 budget assumption of 17.16 percent. The food inflation rate rose to 33.93 percent from 23.75 percent in December 2022, representing 10.18 percentage points increase.

According to the 2024 United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects report, global GDP growth is projected to slow from an estimated 2.7 percent in 2023 to 2.4 percent in 2024 and improve moderately to 2.7 percent in 2025. However, the growth projections for 2024 and 2025 are below the pre-pandemic growth rate trend of 3.0 percent. Economic growth in Africa is projected to remain weak, increasing from an average of 3.3 percent in 2023 to 3.5 percent in 2024. Debt sustainability concerns, stricter fiscal and monetary policies, and the weak world economy will continue to hinder Africa’s development prospects.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), capital importation to Nigeria in Q3 2023 stood at $654.65 million, indicating a 36.45 percent decline from $1.03 billion recorded in Q2 2023 and a 43.55 percent decline from $1.16 billion recorded in Q3 2022. The Q3 2023 value is the lowest Nigeria has recorded in any quarter over the last 10 years. This dip in capital importation could be traced to the challenges with foreign exchange which has dipped the confidence of investors and recently led to the exit of some international firms.