Food insecurity is a global challenge, and achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 2 “zero hunger” by 2030 is a top priority. This is a particularly  pressing issue in Africa, which has been disproportionately affected  for many years and is home to many countries facing soaring food inflation (WHO, 2023). The ongoing war in Ukraine, coupled with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, has further exposed the continent’s deep-rooted structural vulnerabilities (UNDP, 2022). Africa has been grappling with millions of starving populations, including severely malnourished and emaciated children. This crisis is driven by a combination of rising conflict, climate change, and inefficient agricultural practices. Reports from the African Union (AU) and Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) reveal that approximately 346 million people in Africa are currently experiencing food crises. Furthermore, the Famine Early Warning Network Systems projects that many African countries would require food assistance by early 2024 due to the ongoing El Niño event.

Global and Regional Disparities in Food Insecurity

From 2014 to 2023 as revealed in Figure 1A,  all regions experienced fluctuations, but Africa consistently had  the highest prevalence of severe food insecurity, averaging around 19.41% . In contrast, Asia, South America and Latin America and the Caribbean reported lower average rates of 8.26%, 7.58%, and 8.96%, respectively. More worrisome, the severity of food insecurity in Africa has consistently surpassed the combined rates of Asia and either Latin America or South America, except in 2021, which may have been influenced by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Additionally, the global average of 9.23% is significantly lower than Africa’s rate. This clear divergence  highlights the unique and enduring food security challenges facing Africa, necessitating distinct policy responses and urgent interventions.

Within the African regions, disparity still exists. As shown in Figure 1B, from 2014 to 2023, food insecurity rates in Africa fluctuated, starting at 16.3% in 2014 and rising to 21.6% in 2023. Eastern Africa consistently reported the highest prevalence, with rates increasing from 20.6% in 2014 to 24.2% in 2023, peaking at 26.7% in 2021. This was followed by West Africa, experiencing  fluctuations ranging from 10.1% to 18.8% during the same period. Data for Middle Africa was not available until 2020, but it recorded the highest values in 2023, reaching 36% and 38% . North Africa generally reported lower levels of food insecurity, ranging from 8.7% and 12%. In contrast, Southern Africa witnessed relatively stable figures, hovering around 9% to 11%.

By June 2023, food insecurity and malnutrition in West and Middle Africa were projected to peak to 10-year high. According to the UN World Food Programme, 45,000 individuals in the Sahel were  projected to face the risk of  enduring catastrophic hunger in the Sahel for the first time. Middle Africa was anticipated to record the highest level in Africa, while West Africa was projected to experience a 40 % increase in the number of  people struggling with food insecurity, rising from 23.6 million in 2021. This crisis was compounded by soaring grain prices, driven by inflation, sanctions, and restrictions on agricultural trade, along with a 12-million-ton cereal deficit for the 2023-2024 season, further straining the region’s reliance on food imports (WFP, 2024).

Figure 1A: Prevalence of Food Insecurity in the Total Population                        

Figure 1B: Prevalence of Food Insecurity in Africa

Average Regional Prevalence of Severe Food Insecurity in Africa

The average values displayed in figure 2 highlight the persistent challenge of severe food insecurity in Eastern Africa, which exhibits  a consistently high prevalence. Northern Africa maintained a comparatively lower yet stable rate, while Southern Africa showed moderate and stable levels. However, the lack of data for Middle Africa underscores significant gaps in understanding the situation, emphasizing the need for comprehensive reporting and targeted interventions across these regions.

Figure 2: Average Regional Prevalence of Severe Food Insecurity in African Regions

Efforts to Tackle Food Insecurity in Africa

Efforts to combat food insecurity in Africa involve both global and regional initiatives. A significant example is a World Bank report in 2021, highlighting  a substantial $570 million multi-phase program designed for regional capacity development for agricultural risk management,  and promoting intra regional value chains in West Africa, while encouraging climate smart practices. This program, aims to benefit approximately four million people across the region, initially focusing on Mali, Burkina Faso, Togo, Niger, and three key regional organizations, including the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the West and Central Africa Council for Agriculture Research and Development (CORAF), and the Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS).

Addressing food insecurity on the African continent requires  a unified approach involving local, national, regional, and global stakeholders, including humanitarian, developmental, and peacebuilding entities, governments, and donors (Delgado, Tschunkert & Smith, 2023; FAO, 2021). Effective strategies include integrating policies across these sectors  in conflict-prone areas, bolstering climate resilience in food systems, reinforcing the economic resilience of vulnerable populations, and optimizing food supply chains to improve affordability and access.

Regionally, the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), a long-term initiative, was launched in 2003, as part of  the Agenda 2063 continental initiatives. It encourages African governments to allocate at least 10% of their national budgets to agriculture and rural development. The New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) launched in 2002, continues to implement various programs aimed at addressing food security and agricultural development across the continent.  Additionally, the African Development Bank's "Feed Africa" Strategy, launched in 2015, is a comprehensive initiative designed to transform agriculture and food security.  This strategic framework focuses on  promoting agricultural growth and rural development to tackle the critical challenge of food insecurity.  The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) also has an agricultural strategy that aims to enhance food security, promote agricultural trade, and foster regional integration in eastern and southern Africa. Meanwhile, the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) is a partnership that supports smallholder farmers by promoting sustainable agricultural practices, improving seed varieties, and facilitating market access. In addition to these major initiatives, several other programs have been implemented to further support agricultural development across the continent.

African nations have also implemented country-specific programmes to enhance their food systems. Notable initiatives include the  FADAMA project in Nigeria; E-voucher Program in Zambia; National Agricultural Advisory Services in Uganda (NAADS); Kilimo Kwanza (Agriculture First) in Tanzania, the National Agriculture and Livestock Extension Program (NAC) in Kenya, PRODEC (Programme de Développement de l'Économie Ruralel) in Senegal, Malawi's agricultural development initiatives and Ethiopia's productive safety net policy, among others. Despite these efforts, food insecurity remains a critical issue across the region. 

Why Efforts Seem Futile

Amidst climate-related disasters and ongoing conflicts in Africa, which inhibit progress and strain livelihoods on the continent, government expenditure in agriculture has remained low over time. A report by OXFAM reveals that between 2019 and 2022, about two-thirds of African countries spent less than 5% of their budget on agriculture, which is far below the 10% target set by the Maputo Declaration, which over 40 African countries endorsed.

The allocation of government expenditure to agriculture varies significantly across African regions. From 2001 to 2021, the continent allocated an average of 2.68% of its government expenditure to agriculture. Notably, Eastern Africa stands out with the highest average of 4.66%, indicating  a pronounced commitment to agricultural investments compared to other regions. Western Africa follows with  an average of 3.48%, while Northern Africa allocated an average of 2.93%. In contrast, Southern Africa shows a lower average of 1.75%, reflecting a comparatively reduced allocation to agriculture in government spending. Middle Africa falls even lower, with an average of 1.49%. 

During the same period, the global Agriculture Orientation Index (AOI) averages 0.47, implying that, on average, about 47% of government expenditures allocated to agriculture align with the sector's contribution to the global economy. However, in Africa, the average AOI is markedly lower at 0.18, indicating a relatively reduced commitment to agriculture in government spending compared to GDP and a slow progress  towards achieving SDG 2 by 2030. Within the African context, Southern Africa stands out with an AOI of 0.64, reflecting a stronger emphasis  on agriculture in terms of both government expenditures and GDP. In comparison,  other regions have recorded lower values: West Africa at 0.14, Middle Africa at 0.15, East Africa at 0.20, and North Africa at 0.26.

Traditionally, one might expect  that higher government expenditure on agriculture would correlate with a greater  economic impact from the sector and an increased level of food security. However, the paradox in the Southern African region suggests that factors beyond direct government spending, such as private sector contributions, efficiency, climate-induced practices, insecurity trends, technology adoption, and value-added activities, play a significant role in shaping the economic impact of the agricultural sector. A report by the Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA) in 2023 shows that the region is the most climate-resilient region in Sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, the Horn of Africa, Eastern Region, despite being  the most climate vulnerable region and a leading area of conflict and fragility globally, records the highest average share  of government expenditure on agriculture in Africa.

What can we do differently?

To effectively address this issue, interventions must be tailored to the specific circumstances of each region in Africa, where  sustained and targeted efforts to combat food insecurity are most  urgently needed. 

Addressing Climate and Armed Conflict Challenges: Climate-induced conflict is one of the pronounced forms of disaster in Africa. For instance, due to increasing parched land, herders seek to prevent their livestock from getting puny, while farmers strive to protect their crops from stunted growth. This  leads to migration and unhealthy competition for resources  among these groups. The complex interplay between climate-related stressors and societal tensions underscores the need for holistic approaches to address both environmental and security challenges in Africa. 

Increased Investment in Agriculture: Globally, 30–34% of food supply is produced by smallholder farmers who work on less than 2 hectares of land (FAO, 2021).  African nations should prioritize substantial investments in agriculture, specifically targeting smallholder farmers and sustainable farming practices, with effective monitoring in place. This investment should include funding for infrastructure development, access to modern farming technologies, and agricultural training. Additionally, initiatives aimed at increasing the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change should be prioritised.

Cross-Border Collaboration: To address the unique and persistent food security challenges in Africa, countries should engage in regional collaborations. This includes sharing best practices, pooling resources, and coordinating efforts to address issues that transcend national boundaries. Collaborative approaches can enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of interventions and policies and leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) can further foster collaboration.

Data and Reporting Improvement: Comprehensive data collection and reporting systems are crucial for understanding the dynamics of food security in Africa. Governments and organisations should prioritise the collection of accurate and up-to-date data on food production, consumption, and distribution. These data will enable informed decision making, early warning systems, and targeted interventions in areas facing acute food insecurity. Furthermore, it will help track progress toward food security goals and hold stakeholders accountable for their commitments.

Smoking causes more than 1 in 10 cardiovascular deaths globally. Smoking is the leading preventable risk factor for cardiovascular diseases such as ischemic heart disease (IHD), which narrows heart arteries, and cerebrovascular diseases. However, awareness of links between smoking and cardiovascular disease remains low in many parts of the world, including Africa. Supporting better tobacco control policy design and execution, the Tobacco Control Data Initiative (TCDI) seeks to increase access to country-specific tobacco control data for governments, civil society, and academia. The six country-specific TCDI websites provide stakeholders with data that will inform better tobacco control policy design and implementation through comprehensive primary and secondary research.  
In this blog post, we discuss the heart-related implications of tobacco usage with emphasis on their health and economic impacts in South Africa, Zambia, Ethiopia, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Nigeria.

South Africa
Health Impact: According to the Global Burden of Disease Study (2021), over 32,000 people in South Africa died from tobacco-related illnesses (TRIs), including cardiovascular disease (see Figure 1 below). Cardiovascular diseases, such as ischemic heart diseases, hypertensive diseases, and other forms of heart disease, account for 22% of the country's total TRI deaths. Additionally, tobacco use contributed to 13% of non-communicable disease (NCD) deaths in the country.

Figure 1

Economic Impact: In 2016, the cost of tobacco-related diseases in South Africa was estimated at 42 billion Rand (USD 2.88 billion). Of this, 28 billion Rand (USD 1.58 billion) was attributed to lost productivity, while 14 billion Rand (USD 790.07 million) went to direct healthcare expenses.

Zambia

Health Impact: According to a 2019 UNDP report, tobacco consumption in Zambia caused approximately 7,100 deaths annually . The top three causes of tobacco-related deaths were lower respiratory infections (1,839 deaths), ischemic heart disease (1,629 deaths), and tuberculosis (1,032 deaths). Other cardiovascular diseases contributed to 373 deaths.

Figure 2

Source: UNDP/Ministry of Health (Zambia). 

Source: UNDP/Ministry of Health (Zambia)

Economic Impact: In 2016, Zambia's health expenditure on tobacco-related illnesses amounted to ZMW 154.3 million (US$ 9 million). Out-of-pocket expenses stood at ZMW 42.5 million (US$ 2.5 million), while private insurance covered ZMW 37.6 million (US$ 2.2 million). Additionally, indirect costs, including productivity losses and premature death, were estimated at ZMW 1.4 billion (US$ 82 million).

Kenya

Health Impact: According to a TCDI study in Kenya, cardiovascular disease accounted for 9% of all deaths associated with tobacco use, while 33% of those who had myocardial infarction (heart attack) had a history of tobacco use.

Economic Impact: In 2021, tobacco-related illnesses, including myocardial infarction, led to economic losses between US$544.4 million and US$756.2 million. Myocardial infarction alone accounted for $171.43 to US$233.06 million, primarily due to healthcare costs and lost productivity.

Nigeria

Health Impact: The Global Burden of Disease report for 2021 attributed 29,605.1 deaths in Nigeria to tobacco-related illnesses. In the same year, smoking was associated with cardiovascular disease and ischemic heart disease deaths, resulting in approximately 4,806.55 and 2,794.32 deaths, respectively.

Economic Impact:  In Nigeria, tobacco-related CVDs cost approximately N273 million (US$ 890.1 thousand), and the National Tobacco Control Act has been implemented to reduce tobacco's impact on IHD, especially in light of rising shisha use among younger demographics.

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

Health Impact: Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) like cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes are major health challenges in the DRC.  The GBD 2021 report estimated that there were 4725 deaths from tobacco-related cardiovascular diseases and 2579 deaths from ischemic heart diseases. In the DRC, the mortality rate due to smoking in 2019 was estimated at 4.05%. 

Economic Impact: Tobacco-related illnesses, such as cardiovascular diseases, have imposed significant economic burdens on the DRC. Between 2019 and 2021, budget allocations for the health sector reached 165.54% in 2020, yet households continue to bear a substantial portion of health costs. While tobacco taxes are collected, none are allocated to public health, violating the "polluter pays" principle and exacerbating economic strain on health systems.

Ethiopia

Health Impact: Tobacco use contributes to 5% of all non-communicable disease (NCD) deaths in Ethiopia, with 29% of these deaths attributed to cardiovascular diseases, as reported by the Global Burden of Disease (2021). Additionally, the estimate reveals that in 2021, tobacco was responsible for 1.14% of all deaths and accounted for 0.8% of years of life lost. According to Tobacco Atlas (2023), tobacco use is responsible for over 9,884 deaths annually in Ethiopia. 

Economic Impact: Tobacco places a heavy economic burden on Ethiopia, costing around 1.391 billion Ethiopian Birr (US$43.6 million) each year due to healthcare expenses and lost productivity (WHO, 2020). Additionally, smokers spend about 11.7% of their income on cigarettes, depriving them of resources that could otherwise help reduce poverty. 

The significant burden of non-communicable diseases, especially cardiovascular diseases, is evident across these nations, with tobacco-related deaths disproportionately affecting men. The economic costs, both direct and indirect, from healthcare expenses to lost productivity strain already fragile healthcare systems. Furthermore, environmental degradation linked to tobacco production exacerbates the long-term impacts on these emerging economies. Addressing the tobacco epidemic through stronger regulatory frameworks, public health campaigns, and sustainable alternatives is crucial to mitigating these multifaceted consequences and promoting healthier, more resilient societies.

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The educational landscape across sub-Saharan Africa is marred by daunting challenges, with persistently poor learning outcomes standing out as a cause for urgent concern. Despite decades of concerted interventions, evidence indicates a distressing regression in learning performance over the past half-century. Amidst these pervasive challenges, it is imperative to recognise and explore the modest, yet discernible progress achieved, that lay the groundwork for more transformative developments in education.

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This blog was first published by Education and Development Forum (UKFIET) .

The Finance for Development Lab and the Paris School of Economics hosted the 7th edition of the Interdisciplinary Sovereign Debt Research and Management Conference (#DebtCon7), from May 29 to 31, 2024, at the Paris School of Economics. 

The conference brought together scholars, civil society representatives, and practitioners from the public and private sectors who work on sovereign debt, to help find creative solutions for urgent debt policy challenges.

Day one of the conference provided a platform for African think tanks to discuss new and emerging solutions to countries indebtedness.  CSEA’s Senior Research Fellow, Mma Amara Ekeruche, presented the Centre’s plan for a newly commissioned study on Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA).

The study aims to improve the mechanisms of the current Lower-Income Countries’ Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC-DSF) andDebt Sustainability Analysis for Market-Access Countries (MAC DSA), by undertaking a historical examination of DSAs since 2005 and leveraging on insights from country officials. The overall outcome is to provide an alternative to the existing DSA framework.

Here are eight key takeaways from her participation in the conference:
1.        Bad fiscal policy is not the only reason for the rising indebtedness, the balance sheet effects of currency depreciations are also a key driver particularly in the context of high external loans.
2.        Improvements in restructuring whether nominal haircut restructuring or reprofiling is possible by adopting Collective Action Clauses (CACs) and/or engaging in Debt for Nature Swaps particularly before the high yielding debt becomes excessive. However, CACs cannot be integrated into some forms of loans such as syndicated loans and quasi debt. In such cases, legal reforms should be proposed and the best places to begin are countries that are well integrated into the international trade and financial systems.
3.        On climate-smart debt management, solutions include: (i) Climate-resilient clauses in official and commercial loans (ii) Catastrophe-Deferred Drawdown Options (CAT-DDO’s) (iii) Catastrophe bonds and (iv) KPI bonds whose interest rates reduce once emission targets are met.
4.        Issues with “new” innovations. State-Contingent Debt Instruments (SCDI) are value recovery instruments – creditors get higher yields when the state variable (e.g., oil price, GDP growth) improves. However, SCDIs have very low liquidity, are traded at low prices, and in most cases, their valuation is not backed by science. Another issue with new inventions is the proliferation of climate funds – there are now 70 of them!
5.      Debt gone wrong: Congo vs Commisimpex- Here, Congo took on an oil-backed supplier credit in 1986 and did not fulfil its debt obligations. Fast forward to nearly 4 decades after, the debt obligation has morphed into 675 million Euros and the International Court of Arbitration has mandated that Congo makes the payment.
6.     The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is expanding its portfolio to emerging markets including Nigeria and a few other African countries. Their main aim is to lend to SMEs through African financial institutions.
7.     Debt is now being considered as “investment” by some courts which makes it possible for creditors to collect debt claims by leveraging on investment treaties.
8.  Trade is the most likely solution to the reoccurring debt problem in many African countries as exemplified by Mexico with North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Tobacco smoking is a significant risk factor for noncommunicable diseases such as chronic respiratory disorders, cancer, diabetes, and heart disease and the leading cause of preventable deaths worldwide. Current estimates indicate that cigarettes alone are responsible for 8.7 million deaths annually, and 7.7 million of these fatalities are attributable to smoking, whereas 1.3 million are the consequence of secondhand smoke exposure among nonsmokers. Studies also reveal that many individuals begin smoking before the age of 18 as a result of  the tobacco industry frequently targeting youth in low-income countries with its marketing efforts (WHO report).  

CSEA, in its capacity as a sustainability partner  of the Tobacco Control Data Initiative (TCDI 2.0) established by Development Gateway, has compiled a factsheet commemorating World No Tobacco Day 2024. This document highlights facts about tobacco prevalence amongst children and the tobacco industry's interference in countries —Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, and Zambia