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Is Tourism-Led-Growth Hypothesis Valid in the Presence of Structural Breaks? Evidence from DKW’s Panel Structural Break Method

This study revisited the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH) in the presence of structural breaks using the structural break technique of Ditzen et al. (2021). To estimate the impact of tourism on economic growth along the identified structural breaks, we employed Fixed Effects and Feasible Generalised Least Squares methods. Findings showed four structural break dates (1999, 2004, 2009 and 2014), two of which coincided with the Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009) and the Ebola outbreak (2014). Despite the presence of structural breaks, the TLGH remains valid.

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Author- Isiaka Raifu Akande

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Government expenditure and unemployment nexus in Nigeria: Does institutional quality matter?

This study investigates the role of institutional quality in the government expenditure-unemployment nexus in Nigeria using different components of government expenditures (total, recurrent, and capital expenditures). Causality tests and the autoregressive distributed lag estimation methods are used to analyse data spanning the period from 1984 to 2019. The key findings are as follows: (i) unidirectional causality runs from unemployment to total and capital expenditure and a partial unidirectional causality runs from recurrent expenditure to unemployment; (ii) total and capital expenditures are pro-employment in the long run, while the recurrent expenditure is only pro-employment in the short run; (iii) institutional quality is detrimental to employment in the long run; and (iv) institutional quality significantly moderates the impact of government expenditure on unemployment in Nigeria. The Nigerian government need to increase pro-employment expenditure and make concerted efforts at improving the institutional quality in Nigeria.

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Authors: Isiaka Akande Raifu, Alarudeen Aminu, Joshua Adeyemi Afolabi, Emmanuel Olubowale Obijole

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FDI, institutional quality and gender employment in Sub-Saharan Africa

With the widening saving-investment gap and the limited domestic financial resources to drive development imperatives in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), foreign direct investment (FDI) is considered a viable and sustainably promising option for boosting employment generation and closing gender gaps in employment. This paper provides critical insights into the gender and age-based employment effect of FDI in SSA and the role of institutional quality in shaping the relationship. The two-step generalized method of moments modelling framework was adopted to analyse relevant data of 29 SSA countries over the 2000-2021 period. The results revealed that FDI has a significant employment-enhancing effect irrespective of gender and age considerations. We also find that institutional quality amplifies this effect. Efforts should, therefore, be concentrated on improving institutional quality, the success of which will appeal to foreign investors and attract more foreign investments.


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Authors: Joshua Adeyemi Afolabi and Isiaka Akande Raifu
 

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Revisiting the Tourism-Led-Growth Hypothesis: Fresh Evidence From the World’s Top Ten Tourist Destinations

This study examines whether structural breaks matter in the tourism-growth nexus. We estimated annual and quarterly data for the world’s top 10 tourism destinations between 1995 and 2020 using the structural break, Fixed Effects and Feasible Generalised Least Square (FGLS) approaches. This study provides evidence of structural fractures in the relationship between tourism (in the lead) and economic growth.

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Authors: Isiaka Akande Raifu, Joshua Adeyemi Afolabi


 

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Renewable green hydrogen energy: performances amidst global disturbances

Green hydrogen is a promising alternative towards the global target of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. As such, attention is geared towards green energy hydrogen technologies and markets. Invariably, this also provides investment opportunities for both institutional and private investors. To this end, seventeen green hydrogen markets are studied using network modelling techniques. Among other key findings, Plug Power leads the industry’s returns while Bloom Energy leads its volatilities as net transmitters. Intuitively, these markets serve as signals or yardsticks in identifying performances, developments, investment opportunities and prospects in the green hydrogen industry. Conversely, Fuel Cell Energy and Nikola are the leading net return and volatility receivers respectively. Nonetheless, the outbreak of the coronavirus altered the nature of connectedness existing in the renewable green hydrogen industry. This is further confrmed using the Welch (two samples) test. Besides, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic strengthened and improved the industry’s overall connectedness. Generally, vital evidence for understanding the green hydrogen industry is presented and discussed. Evidence-based Investment and portfolio management policy implications and recommendations are made.

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