In May 2024, oil production in Nigeria dropped by 30,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.25 million bpd, according to OPEC's latest report. This decline puts Nigeria even further behind OPEC's 2024 production quota of 1.38 million bpd and the Federal Government's budgeted benchmark of 1.78 million bpd. This is in addition to the slight drop in the global oil price to $80.96 per barrel, presenting a more challenging situation for the country from both revenue and foreign reserves perspectives.

This brief examines the potential impact of a minimum wage increase in Nigeria, taking into account the current economic state and the factors driving inflation. It also provides a minimum wage recommendation to guide the government and labor unions in reaching a realistic minimum wage.

This snapshot for June 2024 provides trends, and insights on key macroeconomic indicators such as Inflation, foreign reserves, currency in circulation and crude oil prices.

There is a consensus among policymakers in Africa that high unemployment, especially among youth, is a major impediment to inclusive growth. A recent Afrobarometer survey (Round 9) underscores this concern, revealing that 40 percent of African youth identify unemployment as the primary issue that governments should address. In response, regional and national policies, such as the Job for Youth in Africa program (2016-2025), have been designed to tackle the unemployment problem. However, labor statistics on the continent indicate a more complex situation, where the quality of jobs is a greater concern than their quantity. Quality or decent jobs refers to employment that is "fair, dignified, stable, and secure", as opposed to vulnerable employment. Current estimates place the unemployment rate on the continent at 11.6%, while vulnerable employment reaches as high as 80% in several countries.

This brief was written by Adedeji Adenira PhD , Chukwuma Nwofor and Halimat Abdulrazaq

In its latest report, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicated that the national average cost of a
healthy diet (CoHD) for April 2024 has risen to N1,035 per day, representing a 5.4% increase from N982
recorded in the previous month. The CoHD represents the least expensive combination of locally available food items that meet the global consistent food-based dietary and nutritional guidelines, indicating that an average Nigerian must spend N1,035 daily to maintain a healthy diet.

Data governance has emerged as a central tenet for countries, not only to realise the benefits of digital revolution but also to mitigate the growing risks and threats that emanate from the digital space. Over the last decade, the number of African countries with at least a form of data protection/regulation policy has increased from 12 in 2012 to 36 in 2024. However, the national approach to data governance has its limits, particularly in African countries with low digital development and a high dominance of global digital platform firms.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.98 percent in Q1 2024, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points from the 3.46 percent growth rate recorded in Q4 2023. However, it is 0.67 percentage points higher than 2.31 percent growth rate recorded in Q1 2023. At the disaggregated level, in Q1 2024, services accounted for 58.04 percent of the GDP, the agricultural sector accounted for 21.07 percent, and the industrial sector contributed 20.89 percent.

According to the latest consumer price index (CPI) and inflation report by the National Bureau of Statistics
(NBS), Nigeria’s headline inflation has surged to 33.69%. This reflects a 0.49% points increase from the
previous month's rate of 33.20% and an 11.47% points increase compared to the 22.22% recorded in April 2023. The urban and rural inflation rate rose to 36% and 31.64% respectively. Additionally, food inflation
soared to 40.53%, representing a 15.92% points increase from 24.61% recorded in April 2023.

Africa’s largest economy has found itself in an increasingly vulnerable financial position due to several shocks in the past decade. It relied on private creditors to compensate for revenue shortfalls in 2016 and 2017 after the collapse of commodity prices. The COVID-19 pandemic induced more borrowing, this time from multilateral sources. These events have led to the highest external debt levels in Nigeria since 2004.

Increased debt levels clogged financing for key SDG outcomes relating to social welfare sectors more broadly and gender equality and the environment in particular. This paper explored the need for, viability of, and impacts of debt swaps in Nigeria. It focused on two sources of debt that are mostly likely to be involved in a debt swap: Paris Club ODA debt and underperforming private sector debt. These two sources together comprise a sum of more than $3.7 billion whose exchange could free up resources to fund development priorities for facilitators of the debt swap. If the entirety of the eligible debt were to be swapped, it would create an average of nearly $300 million of budgetary resources (per year) for the next six years. Beyond funding development projects, remaining funds could decrease the debt burden, provided they do not beget additional borrowing. The paper also traced the experiences of five countries participating in debt-for-nature swaps.

This Paper was first published by RED SUR as part of the Working Paper of the Project “Promoting a pandemic recovery: evidence to support managing the growing debt crisis” (IDRC - Red Sur N° 109742-001)