Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate increased to 27.33% in October 2023 from 26.72% recorded in August 2023 and 21.09% in October 2022. The headline inflation is three times the upper bound inflation target of 9%. The data further show that food inflation stood at 31.52%. Core inflation, which is all item excluding food and energy, rose to 22.58%. Persistent double digit inflation rate erodes household purchasing power at a fast pace, thereby pushing thousands of Nigerians into poverty. If the high inflation, especially food inflation, persists for the next 3 months, insecurity and social unrest would increase at an alarming rate. Prompt action, including implementing social protection programs for the most disadvantaged households and setting up food bank to increase access to quality and nutritional meals, is required from the government. In July, President Tinubu declared state of emergency on food. Three months afterwards, food prices continue the upward trajectory rising from 25.25% in June to 31.52% in October. There is a need for the government to update the nation on the agriculture programme. This is important in unpacking likely drivers of the high food inflation beyond insecurity, flooding, and rising transportation costs. Additionally, the government can offer companies tax breaks and other financial incentives, particularly those about to go out of business due to high cost of operation.

Green hydrogen is a promising alternative towards the global target of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. As such, attention is geared towards green energy hydrogen technologies and markets. Invariably, this also provides investment opportunities for both institutional and private investors. To this end, seventeen green hydrogen markets are studied using network modelling techniques. Among other key findings, Plug Power leads the industry’s returns while Bloom Energy leads its volatilities as net transmitters. Intuitively, these markets serve as signals or yardsticks in identifying performances, developments, investment opportunities and prospects in the green hydrogen industry. Conversely, Fuel Cell Energy and Nikola are the leading net return and volatility receivers respectively. Nonetheless, the outbreak of the coronavirus altered the nature of connectedness existing in the renewable green hydrogen industry. This is further confrmed using the Welch (two samples) test. Besides, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic strengthened and improved the industry’s overall connectedness. Generally, vital evidence for understanding the green hydrogen industry is presented and discussed. Evidence-based Investment and portfolio management policy implications and recommendations are made.

Time-of-use pricing in retail electricity markets implies that wholesale market scarcity becomes easily communicated to end consumers. Yet, it is not well-understood if and how the price formation process in retail electricity markets will help to reward the demand for operational flexibility due to growth in intermittent generation. To contribute to this discussion, this paper develops a partial equilibrium model of the retail electricity market calibrated to Chinese data. The paper finds that tariffs in this market may not be significantly suppressed by growth in near-zero costs renewable sources when controlling for flexibility restrictions on thermal generation assets and when a significant curtailment of variable renewable resources exists in the market. In addition, it shows that the price formation process in retail electricity markets which controls for flexibility restrictions on thermal generation while allowing for consumers to respond slowly to price changes is a feasible strategy to reward the demand for operational flexibility. Finally, the paper reveals that while integrating intermittent generation beyond levels which the available storage capacities can accommodate may result in losses to producers, benefits to consumers may offset these losses, leading to overall welfare gains.

Strategic decision-making for sequential move games requires rationality and continuity of ra[1]tionality to guarantee maximum payoffs at all nodes/stages/levels. Rationality and continuity of rationality in a player’s behaviour are not often observed and/or maintained thus, leading to less optimal outcomes. More so, the belief in an opponent’s rationality, on the other hand, co[1]determines the level of effort a player employs while making strategic decisions. Given irratio[1]nality and discontinuity of rationality in a sequential move game with mover advantages, there are strategic steps (algorithms) to convert and/or maintain the mover advantages of an irrational player. In this paper, the conversion strategy algorithms, as well as the optimal strategy algo[1]rithms, are developed using the Beta Limit Sum (BLS) strategy model and the game of strokes. The simulation exercises confirm that the BLS strategy model is an optimal solution for the finite sequential game of strokes. One of the key applications of these strategies is that of resource economics like environmental resources (clean water, air & land). These are public goods, as such, the optimal strategy entails that the community cooperates (as one entity) and takes the same actions or strategy to maintain a healthy and clean state of the communal environmental resources.

This policy insight highlights the impact of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) on various sectors of the African economy and identifies some of the factors limiting the responsible adoption and growth of this technology in Africa. This brief further provides key policy considerations on how Africa can effectively employ the potential of generative AI to drive innovation, productivity, economic growth, and development in the continent. Through infrastructural development, capacity building and regional collaboration, Africa can harness generative AI's transformative power while ensuring its deployment is ethical, inclusive, and aligned with Africa’s unique challenges and goals.

The October 2023 Cadre Harmonisé analysis on food insecurity conducted by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) in partnership with the Nigerian government revealed that 26.5 million Nigerians will face severe food insecurity in 2024, and 9 million children are at risk of malnutrition. This implies that more than 10% of the population will likely experience food insecurity. Food insecurity is concentrated in a few states including Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe. The high level of food insecurity is driven by several factors including insecurity in food-producing areas, climate change impacts, and the rising prices of food. Food access and availability are hampered by insecurity as farmers relocate from the farmland to city centres, where the level of security is much better. With high food insecurity, the country also faces greater risks of health problems associated to malnutrition, a rise in social instability, and rising inequality. Children who are malnourished may have difficulty in learning in school, which exacerbates the poverty cycle. Immediate remedies that involve improving security, expanding social safety nets, diversifying food sources, and investing in agricultural infrastructure and technology are required to confront this impending problem. Long-term approaches like agricultural innovation, and capacity-building initiatives are also desperately needed to support sustainable food security and increase community resilience.

Data released by the Budget Office of the Federation shows that debt service payments on external and domestic debts in the first quarter of 2023 stood at ₦1,317.08 billion, indicating an increase of ₦39.61 billion (3.10 percent) above the ₦1,227.47 billion projected for the quarter. In the period under review, the sum of ₦874.13 billion was used for domestic debt servicing, while ₦442.95 billion was used for external debt servicing. When interest payment on Ways and Means is included, debt service payments in Q1 2023 rose to ₦2,229 billion. The high debt servicing costs for the Federal Government of Nigeria can be attributed to several factors, including the substantial accumulation of domestic and external debt over the years and the high-interest rate charged on Ways and Means, which is estimated at the Monetary Policy Rate plus 3 percent. The interest payments in the subsequent quarters are likely to be lower due to the securitization of the Ways and Means in May. High debt service expenses divert resources from infrastructure development, healthcare, and education. Low investment in these growth-enhancing sectors limits future growth. High debt payments arise from past debt accumulation, fiscal deficits, low taxation, and inefficiency in government spending. It is, therefore, important for the government to institutionalise policies and programs that would ensure that debts are incurred only on viable projects that would bolster economic growth and increase future government revenue. Also, government at all levels should strive to reduce the cost of governance and increase efficiency in spending with the sole purpose of generating the highest public value from taxpayer funds

According to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data on money and credit, Money Supply (M3) stood at N67.2 trillion in September 2023, an increase of 36.2% from N49.3 trillion in September 2022. On a monthly basis, it rose by 2.3% from N65.7 trillion in August 2023. These statistics show that monetary factors partly contribute to Nigeria's high inflation rate. Net domestic assets accounted for about 99.1% of the money supply in September; net foreign assets stood at N591 billion, less than 1%. This implies that curtailing the growth in net domestic assets would help reduce the growth in the money supply, which, in turn, might help in taming the inflation rate. Also, the data from CBN shows that the currency in circulation is approaching the pre-currency redesign level of N2.88 trillion in 2021 and N3.24 trillion in 2022. In September 2023, currency in circulation stood at about N2.76 trillion, an increase from N982.1 billion recorded in February. Upon the relaxation of the currency redesign based on the court ruling in March, which allowed concurrent use of the old and new currency till of the year, currency in circulation rose to N1.68 trillion. We have two months to the end of the year, and there is no policy directive on how the old currency will be phased out. This is important in avoiding the economic hardship experienced in the first two months of 2023. Hence, the monetary authority needs to use the last two months to provide policy direction about steps to slow down the increase in money supply, as a first step to curtail the inflation rate and the possibility of using the old notes in 2024. 

According to data from the World Population Review, Nigeria has the world’s second-highest number of homeless people. 24 million Nigerians do not have homes, accounting for nearly 10% of the total population. The statistics exclude those not living in a proper home with access to some of the most basic services. Several factors contribute to the high number of homeless persons, including a shortage of affordable housing options, land ownership and usage, economic exploitation, and unequal distribution of wealth and resources within the country. Homelessness is widening social inequality and vulnerability to health issues, which could worsen the humanitarian crisis in the country. Hence, there is an urgent need to prioritize the construction of affordable housing units tailored to the needs of low-income earners, in order to make homeownership accessible to all. In addition, to ensure renters' rights and stabilise the housing market, robust legal protections for tenants, such as safeguards against forced evictions and arbitrary rent increases, should be implemented. Furthermore, the government should enforce land use policies that encourage equitable land allocation for housing purposes, while also addressing land access and ownership issues. Collectively, these measures can help mitigate the housing crisis, improve living conditions, and create a more equal and stable housing market in Nigeria.