Data from the September 2023 report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
shows that Nigeria’s oil output rose by 9.3% from 1.08 mb/d recorded in July to 1.18 million barrels per day (mb/d) in August 2023. However, oil output still falls short of the 1.74 mb/d quota allocated to Nigeria by OPEC and far below the 1.69 mb/d assumed in the 2023 budget. In June 2023, OPEC reduced Nigeria’s future quota by over 20% from 1.74 mb/d to 1.38 mb/d , and the new quota will become effective from January 2024 if the output level remains low. This data on crude oil production indicates that Nigeria is not getting the maximum fiscal buffer associated with the recent rise in crude oil, which is above $90 per barrel.

According to the rail transport data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in Q2 2023, the volume of goods/cargos transported for Q2 2023 reached 56,029 tons, compared to 31,197 tons in Q2 2022, showcasing a substantial growth trend. Similarly, goods/cargo revenue collected in Q2 2023 was N188.03 million, up by 105.04% from N91.70 million in Q2 2022. 

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report on Foreign Trade in Goods for the second quarter of 2023, total trade stood at N12.7 trillion, a decline of 7.6% from N13.8 trillion recorded in Q2 2022. Both imports and exports experienced a decrease in year-on-year changes; however, the rate of decline was higher for imports. 

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.51% (year-on-year, YoY) in real terms in the second quarter (Q2) of 2023. This growth rate is less than the 3.54% recorded in the Q2 2022 and is primarily driven by the services sector, which recorded a growth rate of 4.42 percent in the period and contributed 58.42 percent to the aggregate GDP. 

The July 2023 monthly OPEC oil market report indicates a general increase in international crude oil prices. According to the report, the OPEC reference basket, which reflects the average crude oil prices of OPEC member countries, experienced a month-on-month surge of $5.87 (7.8%), reaching an average of $81.06 per barrel. Concurrently, the ICE Brent front-month contract witnessed a substantial increase of $5.18 (6.9%), reaching $80.16 per barrel.