According to the National Bureau of Statistics' recent Transport Fare Watch report, the average fare paid by commuters for bus journeys within cities per drop increased by 3.45% month-on-month (MoM), from N869 in August to ₦899 in September 2024. Similarly, the average fare for intercity bus journeys per drop rose by 0.22% MoM, from ₦7,159 in August 2024 to ₦7,175 in September 2024. On a year-on-year basis, intercity fares increased by 21.26% from ₦5,917 in September 2023. Air travel fares also recorded a 0.8% MoM increase, rising from N123,700 in August to ₦"124,693 in September 2024. The fare for Okada (motorcycle) transport, saw a 1.4% MoM increase, from ₦524 in August 2024 to ₦532 in September 2024.This consistent rise in transport fares is primarily due to the removal of fuel subsidies, which led to higher fuel and energy-related costs. Additionally, rising insecurity on major roads has further contributed to increased transport costs, as drivers often avoid these routes or incur additional expenses for security measures. Rising transport costs could lead to an increase in the price of goods and services transported interstate over long distances. Likewise, rising transport costs would reduce the purchasing power and disposable income of the average Nigerian. To address these challenges, the government should consider stabilizing fuel prices, strengthening public transport infrastructure, and enhancing security measures to protect lives and property on major roads across Nigeria

Governments allocate public funds toward social goods and services as an essential component of provision of public goods and economic planning. This is facilitated through public procurement, which is the process through which the government acquires works, goods, and services from the private sector. The estimate among OECD countries shows that public procurement accounts for a 12.9% share of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2021. In developing countries, public procurement was estimated to be around 30% of the GDP and represented more than 30% of total government spending before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2016, the annual expenditure on procurement in Nigeria was estimated to range from 10% to 25% of GDP.

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This brief was first published by Brookings

Highlights

1) Mobilising diverse climate finance resources and investments to support Africa’s energy transition will address the continent’s energy access challenges.
2) Sustainable governance is critical to driving climate policy initiatives and projects, which cost approximately $2.8 trillion from 2020 to 2030. Furthermore, there is a $200-$400 billion climate funding gap in Africa from feasible debt swaps with the continent losing up to 15 per cent of its GDP per capita annually to climate change.
3) Infrastructure governance can drive innovation and climate action, potentially unlocking significant climate finance and investments for Africa’s energy transition.
4)  A set of crucial policy considerations for unlocking finance climate goals sustainably. A series of vital policy considerations, including the establishment of robust legal regulatory frameworks, are essential for achieving climate goals and unlocking sustainable finance.

Authors: Oluseyi Aladesanmi, Evelyn Dan Epelle, Priscilla Airohi-Alikor

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming industries, governance, and societies, offering immense benefits in efficiency and economic growth. Although AI continues to impact various sectors globally by driving innovation, it also raises complex regulatory challenges. The rapid advancement of AI raises significant ethical, social, and economic risks, including data privacy violations, job displacement, and bias in decision-making. Thus, there is an urgent need for effective AI regulation as governments and international bodies grapple with balancing innovation with safeguards to protect individuals and society.

Authors: Uche Anyamele Ph.D, Tikristini Olawale and Onyinye Onuh

In October 2024, the inflation rate (CPI) rose to 33.80%, up from 32.70% recorded in September 2024, marking a 1.18 percentage point increase from the previous month. This increase also extended to food inflation, which saw a rise reaching 39.16% from 37.77% recorded in September, indicating a 1.39 percentage point increase. Urban inflation also saw a rise, climbing to 36.38%, while rural inflation rose to 31.59%, representing month-on-month increases of 1.24 and 1.10 percentage points, respectively. Notably, the country's foreign reserves aslo saw a monthly average rise of 1.20%, reaching a total of $40.26 billion.

This study examines the effect of access to clean fuel and technology on health outcomes, drawing a comparison between Africa and Asia over the period 2000–2021. Using Generalised Least Squares, our findings revealed that access to clean fuel and technology improves health outcomes in both regions, suggesting that having access to clean fuel and technology is indispensable to improving health outcomes in Africa and Asia. Thus, governments in the two regions should prioritise and invest in technology that provides access to clean energy.

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Authors: Isiaka Raifu Akande and Nantap Rejoice Ditep

According to the Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG)/Cooking Gas Price Watch of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the average retail price for refilling a 5 kg cylinder of liquefied petroleum gas (cooking gas) increased by 4.19% month-on month from N6,430.02 in August 2024 to N6,699.63 in September 2024. However, it rose by 59.90% year-on-year when compared to N4,189.96 in September 2023. Zonal analysis revealed that the North-East had the highest price for refilling a 5-kg cylinder of cooking gas at N6,929.02, followed by the South-East at N6,893.47 and the North-West at N6,382.30. At the state level, Rivers recorded the highest average price for refilling a 5-kg cylinder of cooking gas at N7,271.88 and Borno at N7,089.72. Conversely, Kebbi had the lowest price at N5,950.00, with Kano at N6,133.33 and Benue at N6,143.52. Unchecked inflation negatively impacted the price increase. The rising cost of cooking gas significantly challenges the livelihood of Nigerians, necessitating government intervention to lessen the burden on low-income households. Specifically, there is a significant need for increased support for local gas production, a reduction in taxes and levies on local gas production, and the promotion of alternative cooking energies sources for households.

This paper examines the relationship between social assistance, violent conflict, and intersecting crises, and considers how social assistance can help offset erosive forms of coping that could otherwise drive poverty and food insecurity. To investigate these issues, the study draws on newly collected household data covering 1,000 survey respondents in 2023 from the Konduga and Maiduguri Municipal Council local government areas in Borno, Nigeria. Borno has been an epicentre for violence over the past 15 years, and has experienced a range of intersecting crises.

Study findings indicate that 43 per cent of households experienced disruptions to income or agriculture, or asset loss, either due to conflict, flooding, or drought. Of these households, 41 per cent reported that more than half of their income source was lost. Despite the negative effects of crises, only 1 in 10 households received social assistance in the year preceding the survey, mainly through non-governmental organisations. This indicates that social assistance is simply not getting through to the people who need it. Perhaps as a result, households are increasingly drawing on negative and even erosive forms of coping – for example, by being less able to save, less able to make investments, and increasing reliance on loans that together could drive downward mobility. The paper concludes with broad-brush implications for social assistance programmes to become more effective amidst violence and climate-related disasters

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A viable economy's hallmark is its ability to generate positive growth rates and its capacity to sustain such growth, especially during a crisis. Economic crises have the potential to induce uncertainty, reverse pre-crisis economic gains and force preexisting challenges to reemerge, necessitating actions on building economic resilience. Given the fragility of most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the current paper evaluates the role of institutional quality (INSQ) and human capital development in boosting economic resilience in SSA. The sampled countries were classified into fragile and resilient countries. Annual data spanning 2000–2021 was obtained and analyzed using the Bias-Corrected Method of Moments (BCMM) estimation method, which can adequately account for cross-sectional dependence, endogeneity, and heterogeneity in the sample.

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Authors: Joshua Adeyemi Afolabi, Isiaka Akande Raifu