The COVID-19 pandemic has had devasting effects in many countries across the globe, affecting every aspect of humanity. The scale of the crisis was unprecedented, with both developed and developing countries under immense pressure to curtail the spread of the virus and the associated negative consequences on the economy. With the exemplary health systems in the rich world being overwhelmed by the scale of the outbreak, it became worrisome what the impact would be on low-income countries, particularly in Africa, with very weak health systems among other persistent challenges.

Most countries in Africa met the crises in a weak position. A host of pre-existing vulnerabilities signalled an impending disaster of massive scale. The region was battling with socio-economic challenges: rising debt; huge health infrastructure gaps; weak governance systems; unemployment and informality of labour; inequality and high poverty incidence, among others. But quite surprisingly, the evidence so far has shown relatively low levels of cases and fatalities, which have given rise to debates about several factors that may be driving the limited spread, albeit with limited factual backing. Some argue that the predominantly young population, higher temperatures, and previous exposure to similar diseases like malaria might be the cause(s) of the limited spread; while others contend that the official figures may be misleading, as poor testing facilities limit the number of overall tests conducted, and thus grossly underestimates the reality of the incidence of coronavirus in Africa.

Aside from the heath/mortality effects of the pandemic in Africa, the seemingly clearer effect is the impact of the social distancing and lockdown measures on the economy. While these measures were necessary to curb the spread of the virus following standard medical/epidemiological advice, the imposition of the measures in African countries had widespread negative impacts on several economies in the region. Restrictions to movement led to a general halt in economic activities, and importantly a disruption in the income of workers in the predominantly informal sector (66 percent of total employment in sub-Saharan Africa), who rely on small daily earnings. These workers in the gig economy in Africa have very limited savings to ease consumption, and thus the lockdown became a threat to their livelihoods.

In line with most countries in different regions, governments in several African countries provided a combination of fiscal, monetary and social protection responses, such as increased health and other crisis-related spending; easing of tax and duty payments for private enterprises; decrease in policy rate and lending facility rates; moratoria for COVID-19-related repayment difficulties; distribution of aid to the less privileged, among others. However, several factors have grossly limited the effectiveness of these policy responses. The first is that the spending plans of countries in SSA is only 0.26% of GDP on average, given the limited fiscal space and the high debt burden on the continent. The second is the high commodity dependence of many African countries, and the recent fall in demand for/prices of commodities have reduced their revenue-generating capacity and ability to ease tax payments. The third is the combination of high levels of informality of businesses and financial exclusion, inadequate data for the effective targeting of poor households, weak institutions and governance systems to ensure transparency and accountability in aid distribution, have all undermined the social protection responses.

The worry in Africa seems to be more about the negative effects of the disruptions/halts in economic activities and livelihoods, than the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 itself. With the pre-existing vulnerabilities in the region, the crisis poses a genuine threat to livelihoods , and the adverse effects are expected to linger in the absence of concrete mitigation strategies. Other sources of finance such as remittances, which have increasingly become a major source of income and are used to ease household consumption for the poor, have been badly affected as the pandemic affected both the givers and the recipients. The World Bank estimates a decline of 23.1 percent in SSA as a result of COVID-19, the highest drop in history.

The situation has led to calls for global attention to supporting Africa, particularly for creditors to provide some debt relief for countries with high debt burdens, in order to create some fiscal room to tackle the pandemic. Different actors, including governments, private sectors, bilateral and multilateral organisations, International donors, civil society, among others, have come to the rescue of the continent in these perilous times. But the question remains: will Africa learn lessons from this pandemic to make conscious efforts to tackle these persistent vulnerabilities that continuously undermine their preparedness and response to outbreaks?

The pandemic can serve as a wake-up call for African governments to resolve the persistent challenges that continue to place the continent in a weak position. It is high time African governments take concrete and practical steps towards diversifying their economies to limit their exposure to commodity price shocks. The pandemic should stimulate efforts to move away from commodity dependence, particularly on oil extraction, to sectors which build and strengthen productive capacities, create jobs, and generate non-oil revenues. Governments in the region need to strengthen their public financial management by building and managing fiscal buffers to cushion the effects of commodity revenue shocks. Fiscal responsibility mechanisms should be enforced and backed by law, to limit wasteful expenditure and reckless accumulation of debt. There is need to provide incentives for businesses to formalize, as that would increase internally generated revenues, as well as improve the effectiveness of social protection initiatives, especially during periods of crisis. Governments can collaborate with development partners to strengthen data-based management systems to enhance the targeting of social safety net programs, particularly during emergency/crisis periods. Lastly, national governments and regional bodies should empower the knowledge industry to provide African solutions to the numerous African problems and challenges. Higher education, research organisations, civil society organisations, and other knowledge-oriented bodies should be adequately funded, to generate credible evidence and create awareness that will contribute to tackling future outbreaks in the region.

This article was first published by the Italian Institute for International Political Studies

Context: Nigeria’s transmission network has long been a weak link in the country’s electricity value chain. Despite recent improvements, the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has never dispatched more than 5.4GW of power to a country of 200 million inhabitants.¹ The national grid frequently suffers from system collapses and regularly fails to transmit available generation (a peak of 7.6 GW).² In 2017-18, about 28 system collapses occurred due to faults and load disturbances leading to partial or total blackouts nationwide.³ The government aims to reach the transmission capacity of 20GW by 2021 and has raised over $1.6 billion from donors for this effort.⁴ To achieve this target, the TCN should:

1. Procure more reserves for generating power stations with functional automatic generation controls to manage frequency variations and reduce system collapse. The TCN needs an average of 400MW of spinning reserves but currently has none.5 In the meantime, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) must approve the 260MW of spinning reserves recently procured by TCN.
2. Expand transmission lines and construct more substations to extend reach and improve the reliability of power. Construct additional relief lines to critical 330kV lines, such as the Alaoji-Onitsha line to correct current disturbances within its coverage.
3. Refurbish sky wires and transmission equipment. Replace vandalized sky wires that expose the lines to lightning strikes, and replace obsolete transmission equipment to minimize the incidence of equipment failures.
4. Tidy-up distribution network lines by erecting poles and properly tensioning lines to free them from overgrown vegetation. Rainstorms and other inclement weather can damage vulnerable lines, causing sudden large-scale loss of distribution loads.
5. Initiate protection schemes for critical transmission-distribution interfaces to minimize the tripping of crucial transmission lines and damages to substations from faults. Currently, protection failure contributes to over 60% of system shutdowns, as nearly half of the 738 interfaces are not protected at the injection substations nor monitored in real-time.6
6. Fast-track construction of digital control centers. Once built, the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA), Electricity Management System (EMS), and telecommunication networks will enable the TCN to digitally monitor the grid in real-time, trace, and repair system collapse faults, and minimize “blame game” in the industry.

Conclusion: Nigeria’s power supply reliability largely depends on the ability of the TCN to expand the transmission network and absorb more generated power. While significant funds have been raised to hit transmission expansion targets, the TCN must carefully consider its investment options, select vital upgrades, and closely monitor expenses.

FIGURE 1: Transmission Loss Factor (%)⁷

FIGURE 2: Map of Nigeria’s Major Transmission Lines⁸

FIGURE 3: Examples of Transmission Lines and Associated Problems⁹

Endnotes

1. Nigerian Electricity Systems Operator (2019), TCN Announces New National Peak Of 5,375MW.
2. TCN (2019), Transmission Expansion Plans
3. NERC Quarterly Report 2017-2019
4. Energy Mix Report (2019), TCN gets $1.6bn from multilateral donors to boost Nigeria’s power supply
5. TCN gives reasons for frequent grid collapse despite $1.6b investments
6. TCN (2019), TCN Newsletter -March 2019.
7. NERC 2019
8. Map design unit of the World Bank (2016)
9. Oladipo F. and Temitayo, o. (2014), The Nigerian Power System Till Date: A Review. International Journal of Advance Foundation and Research in Science & Engineering (IJAFRSE), Vol. 1 (5).

Written in collaboration with Nextier Advisory and Published on Energy for Growth Hub

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, over 250 million primary and secondary children are out of school in Africa. If schools only reopen when normalcy returns, which is estimated to be in 2021 at the earliest, an inclusive learning approach that leaves no child behind, especially in Africa, is essential.

According to the World Bank, 87 percent of children in sub-Saharan Africa are learning poor and lack functional skills in a dynamic labor market. While the shutdown only creates a temporary out-of-school problem, prolonged closure can make being out of school permanent for some children, especially older ones that might be more easily lured into precarious job markets. This will add to the millions of children that were already out of school prior to the pandemic. Additionally, ancillary school services like school meals, sanitary pads, and immunization are disrupted while schools are closed.

The various stopgap measures to continue learning are not suitable for Africa and could in some instances amplify learning inequalities. Remote learning platforms require internet and hardware that are inaccessible to rural and poor households. In fact, a recent Brooking report estimated that less than 25 percent of low-income countries provided remote learning opportunities compared to about a 90 percent adoption rate in high-income countries.

Widely accessible mediums like radio and television are centered around mass education and will be difficult to target to children that are not learning under normal school settings. Sierra Leone’s experience with Ebola is instructive and points to the possible trajectory for other African countries with prolonged school closures. After eight months of closed schools, most children returned unable to recall material pre-Ebola, despite the use of radio and television mediums.

Based on what is known about COVID-19 and the effectiveness of social distancing in reducing its spread, a partial reopening of school can be implemented at no cost or disruption to flattening the curve. The optimal approach for reopening will be context specific, but here is a simple approach that illustrates the basic idea.

Let us imagine the most disadvantaged location with no access to digital platforms for personalized learning, which is reflective of many African regions. The approach is to open the school but replace face-to-face student-teacher interaction and regular school activities with contactless exchange of learning materials and progress.

Teachers will prepare the reading lists and assignments, while children simply pick up the daily task and submit the assignment from the previous day; school will serve as exchange, rather than meeting point. Based on grade, children might be allotted different times to avoid overcrowding and improve social distancing while ensuring more targeted learning. This simple cycle can be improved based on the reality on the ground. For example, targeted lessons can be given for children lagging behind.

The priority can be given to core academic subjects, such as mathematics and language, while other subject teachers in the interim act as assistants. The government can also recruit volunteers to assist teachers in implementing the plan, and the education workforce should be declared essential. Children can temporarily attend the school closest to their homes, and other costless adjustments should be considered.

This approach does not in any way preclude use of digital platforms, when and where available. With this arrangement, children can access other ancillary school services amid the pandemic.

MULTISTAKEHOLDER SUPPORT CAN MAKE THE APPROACH WORK

The government will be crucial to the successful implementation of this approach. Effective information sharing, investment, and purchase of learning materials are required, as is adequate sanitation of school premises. With appropriate copyright negotiation, learning materials can be mass produced using local resources. Mobilization of private sector resources and other innovative solutions is also needed. In all of this, peer learning about what works both within and outside a locality is essential.

Community and civil society also have a role to play. Through mobilizing local resources, they can help fill the likely financing gap for education, given the recent shock to government revenue. Their role in monitoring and evaluating both government support and school management and teachers’ activities could help drive success of the partial reopening. Community support will drive parents’ confidence in sending children to school.

The COVID-19 pandemic has made an already difficult task of providing inclusive and quality education for all even harder. The economic impact will be ephemeral as normalcy returns and economies grow again. However, the impact on education can be lifelong and irreversible for children who lose learning opportunities or completely drop out. For a continent with an enormous human capital deficit, learning cannot wait for complete normalcy to return and a partial reopening of schools will help in this regard.

This article was first published on Brookings

The rise of Boko Haram has plunged North Eastern Nigeria, and particularly Borno State, deeper into educational crisis. While rebuilding infrastructure is already underway, and is certainly a good step, ensuring that the region is in a condition to recover must involve a much more careful and all-encompassing drive to ensure the state’s youth are given the opportunities every child needs and deserves.

The name ‘Boko Haram’—roughly translated as ‘Western/formal Education is sinful’—alone tells the story of the group’s position on formal education. While the numbers are tentative at best—Nigeria lacks sufficient disaggregated data for adequate appraisals of local situations—UNICEF estimated 1.8 million Borno State children remained out of school in 2016, largely owed to the presence of Boko Haram. The numbers are likely to have reduced since then, but the lack of reliable data makes the current damage difficult to estimate. Furthermore, the net-intake rate in Borno State—that is the number of children entering first grade at an age considered to be appropriate—stands at a measly 19%, and is amongst the lowest in the country.

Access to education according to the World Bank, “is a basic human right, and is central to unlocking human capabilities.” The current attack on educational opportunities in the North is certain to have long lasting ramifications on the prospects of the region’s development. Out-of-school children not only “face a higher risk of recruitment by armed groups, child marriage, early pregnancy and other forms of exploitation and abuse,” but also remain fundamentally ill-equipped to productively contribute to a post-conflict economy—further enhancing the malcontent that fuels tensions in the first place.

However, poor attendance is far from being the only problem facing the education sector in Nigeria, and more specifically in the North East. Learning poverty, a concept introduced by the World Bank to measure not just ‘quantity’ but also the quality of learning in developing countries, is rampant and damages the prospects of children irrespective of whether they succeed in attending school. For example, only 23% of the children in the North East that have attended formal school could read and comprehend a simple sentence either in English or local languages, highlighting how being in school, on its own, is not an automatic precursor to learning and human capital development.

The learning deficit experienced in the North-Eastern Region is placing its population at a severe disadvantage. Irrespective of whether children are able to attend school, without foundational learning of skills like reading and writing they will often fail to flourish later in life, whether in more advanced stages of their schooling or when they join the workforce. They thus fail to acquire the necessary human capital to have access to productive activities that can allow them to provide for their families, as well as engage as citizens in their communities. High learning poverty, therefore, is a structural obstacle to Nigeria’s progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals given the integral nature of job creation, structural transformation, sustained growth and poverty reduction to Agenda 2030.

The Boko Haram Effect

While the causes of learning deficit in North Eastern Nigeria are undoubtedly diverse, the growth of Boko Haram over the last decade has given rise to a number of interrelated effects that are severely deleterious to the prospects of education for local youth, and underlie the damning statistics of learning paucity and regional inequality described above. A severe lack of access to schooling from violence and infrastructure destruction; poor teaching numbers and quality; insufficient managerial capacity to ensure the observance of standards; and an ill-conceived educational approach, are all exacerbated by the insecure climate in the states, and combine to create to learning crisis as witnessed in recent times.

It is estimated that Boko Haram has destroyed more than 5000 classrooms and school buildings in Borno State alone, systematically depleting the infrastructure required to extend education to communities particularly in rural, sparsely populated areas. To this end, the government’s drive to build “mega-schools” in the state to replace the lost infrastructure is certainly commendable.

Yet Boko Haram’s attack on schooling opportunities for Borno children goes beyond the destruction of infrastructure, and includes the creation of a climate of fear that shrouds the mere act of going to school in a veil of deep insecurity. Boko Haram’s abduction of 276 schoolgirls in the town of Chibok in Borno State was merely the most extreme and widely-reported symptom of a broader, often underappreciated threat: the methodical attack on schoolteachers and students to undermine the very institution of formal education. As of the end of 2018, more than 2300 teachers had been killed, aggravating the lack of avenues available to extend education to children across the region.

The killing of teachers is inextricably linked to the issue of learning poverty, and compounds with other factors to severely limit the effectiveness of teaching and education even when children are able to attend school. Not only has Boko Haram turned teaching into a dangerous profession, but it has also damaged the societal reputation of the profession. Fear of violence, and decreased reputational benefits of the job make hiring teachers committed to the betterment of the lives of their students increasingly difficult, which has led to a severe scarcity of teachers. The dearth of teachers, in turn, has led to a teacher-to-pupil ratio well below national guidelines thus damaging the classroom experience of children, so crucial in ensuring attendance translates into learning.

Malnutrition making children unable to learn; poor stimulation making them unwilling; poor teachers’ qualifications; lack of learning materials such as textbooks; unprofessional school management; and the lack of administrative capacity in education bureaucracies added to the low teacher numbers. These factor complement each other in determining poor learning outcomes, and must all be considered in addition to policies aimed at increasing attendance.

There is yet one more problem, however, that distinguishes youth development in conflict zones from other underdeveloped regions, and poses a challenge that extends much deeper than the all-too-common issues of low attendance and learning poverty. Children growing up surrounded by conflict are far more likely to develop psychological responses to trauma that greatly hinder their comprehension, ability to produce work, engagement in learning, and trust—all absolutely necessary in the education of a child. Without active focus on addressing the peculiarities of children exposed to violence, these children are far less likely to grow up to be positive, productive individuals in their society, oppositely exposing them to a life of criminality and compensatory violence.

Where we go from here

The multidimensional attack on education prospects of children in North Eastern Region requires a multi-pronged response. Again, the current government emphasis on rebuilding infrastructure, although necessary, is wholly insufficient if the ultimate target is to provide children with the opportunities required to grow up healthy, productive, and safe. The re-establishment of schooling facilities, therefore, must be complemented with a rigorous effort to end learning poverty, and ensure that children complete and leave school having learned the basic skills they will require. This will necessitate a drive to hire more qualified teachers which, again, may potentially be problematic given the adverse effects of the crisis on the motivation for teaching labour force. Hence, a concerted and well-thought out strategy—including perhaps financial incentives—to help make teaching a sufficiently attractive occupation will have to be developed. Furthermore, teachers are too often found to be insufficiently interested in the education of their pupils. Their lack of interest is exacerbated by an institutional lack of supervisory capacity, which therefore leave teachers unaccountable. Ensuring quality instruction requires effective supervision that will have to be part of the restructuring of education in affected region.

Improving numbers and commitment of teachers should be part of a more holistic attempt to improve  the classroom experience, which is a prime determinant of children’s learning. A wider focus to ensure children are well fed, healthy, and committed to education, and that the facilities at their disposal act as a conduit, not an obstacle, to their development cannot be taken for granted or relegated as secondary issues. The success of any education project must be measured in terms of learning outcomes, whose sufficiency can only be achieved in environments suited to learning. Concerns, pecuniary of otherwise, leading to a lack of focus on classroom experiences in favour of the mere access to schools must take into consideration that attendance alone does very little in guaranteeing the requisite education outcomes.

Above and beyond education policies suitable to any environment where schooling access and quality are lacking, children in North East Nigeria require a strong initiative that is tailored to the needs of the children of conflict. This must begin with a re-education of teachers in the skills needed to help pupils coming from traumatic experiences, which should be compounded with greater access to guidance counsellors trained in trauma recuperation. Building positive relationships, fostering positive emotions through positive priming, and teaching character strength have all been shown to be paramount to the recuperation of children who have suffered. Education system must go beyond teaching their students to read (in itself not so easy, as highlighted above), but must be well-suited to develop the types of relationships that “children of conflict” require.

While the physical interactions with teachers are the most important aspect in helping children exposed to trauma, the effort to ensure this focus must begin at the policymaking level. Affected states in the North Eastern Nigeria, as well as the relevant Federal Government agencies like the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and the North East Development Commission must first acknowledge the need for special education initiatives, and subsequently seek creative solutions. Creating an inclusive partnership with local and international partners as well as with education policy experts with the aim of training teachers, and designing appropriate curriculums, will be vital for the children in the Northern Nigeria.

While Boko Haram continues to wreak havoc in Northern Nigeria, the local population, and children in particular, will inevitably be denied access to an environment secure enough to permit their thriving. While some efforts to re-establish a semblance of educational normality have been made, the only hope for the region is a concerted and radical restructuring of the paradigm guiding the education of the youth. Only then will children be afforded the opportunities they need and deserve to build themselves a life befitting of their needs and the suited to a positive societal contribution.

The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the stark need for African institutions of higher education that can efficiently generate and transmit knowledge in times of crisis. Now more than ever, scientists and social scientists must come together to generate policy-relevant research. To fill this vital need, African researchers are forming a Pan-African Scientific Research Council on the premise that “Research is not a luxury, but rather a survival strategy.”

The Council was initiated by Leonard Wantchekon, Professor of Politics at Princeton University and the Founder and President of the African School of Economics (ASE), as part of his contribution to the ongoing global campaign to generate a robust and enduring international response to the Pandemic.

Click the link below to download the call for Expression of Interest.