Are All Shocks Alike? Evidence From the Effects of Oil Shocks on Military Expenditure in Nigeria

In resource-endowed countries, the ability of governments to spend on the critical sectors of their economies depends on the stability of resource prices. Similarly, in crude oil-endowed countries, governments face fiscal constraints during a decline in crude oil prices. Such declines often affect economic performance and mostly result in economic downturns (Raifu et al., 2020). This has been the experience of Nigeria, the largest oil-producing country in Africa. Since crude oil was discovered in 1956 at the Oloibiri village of Niger Delta and became commercialised in the early 1970s, it has become the mainstay of Nigeria’s economy. The survival of Nigeria’s economy largely depends on oil price stability and oil revenue generation.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 29)

In June 2023, Nigeria's money supply (M2) reached a record high of N64.3 trillion, increasing significantly by 15 percent (N8.8 trillion) from N55.5 trillion recorded in May, according to the Money and Credit Statistics of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The money supply represents the total amount of money available in the economy at a specific time, which includes physical currency and various deposits held by individuals, businesses, and institutions in banks and financial institutions. The increase can be attributed to the supreme court’s judgement on the Naira redesign, which permitted the simultaneous use of old and new notes until the end of the year, and a re-evaluation of some dollar-based investments following the liberalisation of the forex market earlier in June.

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The effect of ICT on financial sector development in Africa: does regulatory quality matter?

The moderating role of regulatory quality in the relationship between ICT and financial development in Africa is investigated in this study. We employ data from 38 African countries from 2003 to 2020. For the analysis, a two-step system GMM is used. Our findings demonstrate that ICT and regulatory quality are essential for financial development. The net effect of ICT and regulatory quality on financial development is positive, implying that regulatory quality moderates upwards the nexus between ICT and financial development. 

The journal was written by Isiaka Akande Raifu, Ismaila Adeleye Okunoye and Alarudeen Aminu

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 28)

According to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its July 2023 Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria’s oil output dropped month-on-month (MoM), to 1.249 million barrels per day (mb/d) in June 2023. This represents a by 5.5 percent increase from 1.184 million mb/d recorded in May 2023. This output falls short of the country’s oil production quota of 1.74 mb/d assigned by OPEC and is also below the 2023 budget target of 1.69mb/d. This is a major source of concern, as the country is faced with challenges regarding revenue generation, with oil, the mainstay of the economy, being underutilised due to lower production levels.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 27)

According to OPEC's monthly report on crude oil movement, the price of crude oil dropped significantly in the global market in June. In particular, the OPEC Reference Basket fell by 0.8 percent (63 cents) from $75.82 per barrel in May to $75.19 per barrel. Similarly, the monthly averages for ICE Brent and New
York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped from $75.69 per barrel and $71.62 per barrel in May to $74.98 per barrel and 70.27 per barrel, respectively.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 26)

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported in its last monthly oil market report that Nigeria produced 1.18 million barrels per day (mbpd) in crude oil for May 2023. This indicates a 185,000bpd increase over the 999,000bpd made in April, based on data from direct communication. Following this improved output, Nigeria has now reclaimed its top spot as Africa's highest crude oil
supplier/producer, toppling Angola by 73,000bpd.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 25)

Data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), on ‘MoData released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), on ‘Money and Credit Statistics’ has shown that credit from banks to the government fell in May 2023. The data shows that on a month-on-month basis, banks’ credit to the government fell by N70 billion (0.22 percent) to N30.69 trillion in May 2023 from N30.76 trillion in April 2023. However, credit to the private sector increased MoM by five percent to N44.2 trillion in May 2023 from N43.6 trillion in April 2023ney and Credit Statistics’ has shown that credit from banks to the government fell in May 2023. The data shows that on a month-on-month basis, banks’ credit to the government fell by N70 billion (0.22 percent) to N30.69 trillion in May 2023 from N30.76 trillion in April 2023. However, credit to the private sector increased MoM by five percent to N44.2 trillion in May 2023 from N43.6 trillion in April 2023

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COVID-19 and rising educational Inequalities: Evidence from Nigeria

This study unpacks the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on educational inequalities and related education policy measures in Nigeria. Focusing on primary education, the study aimed to: (i) outline the state and dimensions of educational inequalities in Nigeria before the pandemic; (ii) understand the impact of COVID-19 on student learning performance; (iii) evaluate education-related pandemic measures and their impact on educational inequalities; and (iv) provide policy recommendations on how existing policy responses can be improved to reduce educational inequalities.

Using both quantitative and qualitative data, the study shows that educational inequalities increased during the pandemic across vulnerable groups, particularly low-income families, and children in rural areas. The results reveal a distinct pandemic-related learning loss among students. The dip in performance during the pandemic can be attributed to factors such as prolonged school closures, increased student leisure time, compromised nutrition, and lack of guidance from teachers.

Five key recommendations are made to build resilience in the educational sector and restore progress towards achieving SDG 4 (quality education), namely to: (i) upscale the accelerated learning programme; (ii) increase investment in communication and digital infrastructure; (iii) integrate digital learning into teaching; (iv) invest in adult education programmes; and (v) upscale teachers’ skills.

This paper was first published by the Southern Voice. Click here to read more

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The Nigeria Tobacco Policy Landscape: The Role of States in Tobacco Control

Tobacco control policy refers to the efforts made to reduce the impact of tobacco use on public health. This can include measures such as increasing taxes on tobacco products, implementing smoke-free laws, running anti-smoking campaigns, and providing support for people who want to quit smoking. In Nigeria, the government played a critical role in the country's tobacco control efforts by ratifying the World Health Organization's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), which commits the government to take appropriate measures to reduce tobacco use and its associated health effects.

At the federal level, the government enforced tobacco control policies that apply to the entire country. The policies in this regard include higher taxes on tobacco products, Public smoking bans, regulations on tobacco advertising and sponsorship, and mandatory graphic health warnings on tobacco packages. Furthermore, the government allocated resources to support tobacco control programs and campaigns, monitor the impact of tobacco use and the effectiveness of tobacco control policies.

This brief highlights the importance of state involvement in tobacco control efforts. It seeks to provide evidence-based recommendations through the WHO MPOWER framework on how state governments can effectively implement tobacco control policies and programs that will protect their residents from the harmful effects of tobacco use.

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