In its latest Nigeria Development Update, the World Bank revealed that 24 million Nigerians had been pushed below the poverty line in 5 years - between 2018 and 2023. In tandem, poverty rate in the country has increased to 46 percent in 2023 compared to 40 percent recorded in 2018 with the number of poor people also rising from 79 million in 2018 to 104 million in 2023, a 31.6 percent increase. A rural-urban comparison shows that a larger proportion of poor people reside in rural areas standing at 84 million compared with 20 million poor people residing in urban areas. The increase in poverty rates is attributed to rising inflation, slow economic growth, and a high population growth rate

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, on the 29th of November 2023, presented the 2024 budget before the joint session of the National Assembly. The budget is the largest in Nigeria’s history with a size of N27.5 trillion and a revenue projection of N18.32 trillion resulting in a budget deficit of N9.18 trillion. Revenue comprises oil revenue of N7.69 trillion, non-oil revenue of N3.52 trillion and Independent and other revenue sources of N6.86 trillion. The expenditure consists of capital expenditure of N8.72 trillion, non-debt recurrent expenditure of N9.92 trillion, debt service of N8.49 trillion and statutory transfer of
N1.38 trillion. These estimates imply that debt service is 30% of total expenditure and 95% of capital expenditure.

Data from the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) reveals that 156 oil spill incidents were reported between September and November 2023, costing the waste of about 2792.51 barrels of crude oil. According to the November report, the spill happened at various oil companies’ facilities, with Total Exploration and Production having reported the most significant spillage at 803.06 barrels of crude oil spilled representing about 72.5% of overall oil spillage, followed by Heritage Energy Operational Service Limited, NNPC Exploration and Production Ltd, Nigerian Agip Oil Company, Midwestern Oil and Gas spilled and Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) with about 233 barrels, 30.5 barrels, 26.43 barrels, 7.26 barrels, and 7 barrels of crude oil respectively. Oil spillage has several devastating impacts on the environment, ecosystems, and the livelihoods of local communities.

The average retail prices per litre of petroleum products such as Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), Automobile Gas Oil (diesel), and Household Kerosene (kerosene) generally increased in October 2023. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the average price of petrol in October 2023 stood at N630.63, indicating an increase of about 0.71% compared with September, when the average price of petrol stood at N626.21. Also, the price of kerosene in October stood at N1303.16, indicating an increase of about 0.32% compared with N1,299.03 recorded in September 2023 on a month-on-month basis. The price of diesel in-creased the most among the three products. Within a month, the price of diesel increased by 12.82%, from N890.80 in September 2023 to N1004.98 in October 2023. The differential increase in the price of the three products could be associated with the initial plan by the government to introduce 7.5% VAT on diesel. However, the plan was paused for six months. There is a high likelihood that the increment experienced in October was caused by the planned proposed VAT policy. With erratic power supply and high dependence on diesel to power generators, the price increment would contribute to an increase in the cost of operation, and firms would push it to consumers in the form of higher prices, thereby further contributing to the high inflation. To ease the burden of the high diesel price of an average Nigerian, there is a need for the government to ensure a stable power supply.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate increased to 27.33% in October 2023 from 26.72% recorded in August 2023 and 21.09% in October 2022. The headline inflation is three times the upper bound inflation target of 9%. The data further show that food inflation stood at 31.52%. Core inflation, which is all item excluding food and energy, rose to 22.58%. Persistent double digit inflation rate erodes household purchasing power at a fast pace, thereby pushing thousands of Nigerians into poverty. If the high inflation, especially food inflation, persists for the next 3 months, insecurity and social unrest would increase at an alarming rate. Prompt action, including implementing social protection programs for the most disadvantaged households and setting up food bank to increase access to quality and nutritional meals, is required from the government. In July, President Tinubu declared state of emergency on food. Three months afterwards, food prices continue the upward trajectory rising from 25.25% in June to 31.52% in October. There is a need for the government to update the nation on the agriculture programme. This is important in unpacking likely drivers of the high food inflation beyond insecurity, flooding, and rising transportation costs. Additionally, the government can offer companies tax breaks and other financial incentives, particularly those about to go out of business due to high cost of operation.