Policy Brief & Alerts

May 17, 2017

Understanding The Ongoing Recession In Nigeria:A Synthesis Of The Events And Policy Options

In
the second quarter of 2016, the Nigerian economy witnessed its first recession
in twenty years due to the interplay of several external and internal factors.
The recession has continued until date and has given rise to relentless
unemployment rate and job losses, double digit and soaring inflation, currency
depreciation and widening gap between parallel market and official exchange
rates, amongst other adverse effect on individuals and firms in the country.
Thus, there is a need to take a deeper look into the nature of the present
recession as well as the impact of monetary and fiscal policy responses thus
far, in order to shed light on the way forward towards tackling the recession
and ensuring sustainable economic growth. This paper analyses the ongoing
recession in the Nigerian economy to provide insights into the interplay of
events and recommendations for policy.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 52)

Recently released population estimate figures by the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, show a significant increase in Nigerias population, based on the 2006 census. Notably, total population grew by an estimated 40 percent from 2006, to 193 million persons in 2016. Also, disaggregate demographic data from 2007 to 2016, reveals an increase in the number of males (74 million to 99 million) and females (71 million to 95 million), with a 2016 gender (males to females) percentage ratio of 51:49. The high rate of population growth can be attributed to the improvements in average annual rate of natural increase the difference between crude birth rate and death rate. As in preceding years, the composition of children and youths make up the highest share of the population growth. This presents a potential increase in the rate of labour supply. Going forward, there is need for the government to support rapid job creation in order to check the potential upsurge in unemployment rate.

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 2)

Inflation rate rose slightly to 9.4 percent in November 2015 from 9.3 percent in the previous month. This rise is attributed to price increase in Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, and Transportation costs which extends from shortages of petrol across the country. The food sub-index grew by 0.2 percentage points to 10. 1 percent while, the Core sub-index declined by 0.2 percentage points to 8.7 percent within the period. The inflationary up-tick points to the need to curtail the rising food prices by increasing the supply of petrol in the country.