Asides

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 5)

Recently released media highlights show that Nigeria has dropped in terms of macroeconomic indicator rankings in 2018. With a headline index of 2.77, Nigeria is ranked 158th globally out of 181 countries five places lower than the previous year rankings. Indicators suggest that Nigeria is presently behind 28 other African countries, and just ahead of only 4 West African countries (Mauritania, Togo, Niger and Guinea Bissau). 

Download

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 4)

Recently released labour force report by the NBS shows a quarter-over-quarter increase in Nigerias working age and labour force population. Working population rose from 110.29 million in 2017Q2, to 111.13 million persons in 2017Q32. The working age population in 2017Q3 constituted 85.08 million persons in the labour force (an increase from 83.94 million), of which 40 percent were either unemployed or underemployed.  Thus, total employed persons in the quarter reached 69.1 million.

Download

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 3)

Recently released inflation rate report by the NBS shows a further decline in consumer price index in December 2017. At 15.37 percent, the CPI was 0.53 percentage points lower than the 15.90 percent recorded in November 2017. The food sub-index decreased to 19.42 percent from 20.21 percent, indicating reduced pressure on food prices in the review period. Core sub-index fell slightly to 12.1 percent from 12.21 percent in the preceding month. Going forward, the ability of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to control inflation in 2018 may be hampered by monetary injections by the government and politicians towards budgetary expenditure and election campaigns, respectively.

Download

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 2)

International rating body, Fitch, has projected higher economic growth for Nigeria in 2018. The body estimated that Nigerias economy will grow by 2.6 percent, slightly higher compared to projections from the International Monetary Fund (2.1 percent) and The World Bank (1 percent). A myriad of factors may have driven the projected increase: improved availability of forex for the non-oil sector, higher government capital expenditure capability driven by more oil revenue, and fiscal stimulus. However, the relatively strong economic growth projected by Fitch and IMF may be hampered

Download

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 50)

In the third quarter of 2017, NBS report show that Nigeria recorded a marginal quarter-overquarter and significant Year-on-Year increases in the value (in Naira terms) of merchandise (goods) foreign trade. At N5.92 trillion, total merchandise trade increased 3.9 percent over the preceding quarter and 23.9 percent over the corresponding quarter in 2016. Specifically, with exports rising QOQ by 15.2 percent to N3.57 trillion and imports shrinking by 9.4 percent to N2.35 trillion, trade balance amounted to a surplus of N1.22 trillion in 2017Q3- a substantial 142 percentage increase (QOQ) in trade surplus value.

Download

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 51)

According to figures released by the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, employment growth lagged during the recession period, and worsened unemployment/underemployment rates few quarters after. Specifically, unemployment rate rose to 18.8 percent in 2017Q31, up from 16.2 percent in previous quarter (the recession-exit quarter) and 13.9 percent in corresponding quarter. Disaggregated figures reveal that the number of unemployed and underemployed persons in the labour force increased by 17 percent and 2 percent respectively, to 15.9 million and 18.0 million in 2017Q3, majority of which are young persons within ages 15-34. 

Download

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 1)

Nigerias external reserves improved in 2017. The reserve stood at approximately $39 billion as at the end of December 2017, up by about 50 percent from the $26 billion at the beginning of the year 20172. The surge in reserve was particularly boosted by increased capital importation, and crude revenue earnings prompted by a relatively higher crude oil price and improved domestic production. Given that the recent uptick in external reserves is still largely associated with improved crude oil price, efforts should be geared towards conserving current reserve gain so as to cushion future external shock. In the medium term, there is need to diversify export earning away from oil so as to mitigate the effects of volatility in crude oil prices.

Download

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 48)

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that Internally Generated Revenue by states increased in 2017H1. The IGR increased from N392.1 billion in 2016H1, to N396.9 billion in 2017H1, a slight 1.2 percentage half Year-on-year growth. Also, N149.5 billion was generated in 2017Q3. Lagos state remains top in internal revenue generation, with a significant 42.3 percent share of total IGR in the review half year. The improvements in IGR may be attributable to efficient revenue collection by each reported state from the various sources of internal revenue: taxes, fines and fees, licenses, earnings & sales, rent on government property, interests and dividends, among others. 

Download

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 49)

OPEC weekly basket price reduced from $61.14 to $60.73 per barrel (December 1 8, 2017). Similarly, Global oil benchmark crude sold for as low as $61.22 per barrel during the week, down week-on-week by 1.8 percent. Nigerias Bonny light declined slightly by approximately 1 percent to $63.534. The fall in crude prices came after a sharp rise in U.S. inventories of refined fuel, which suggested that actual demand may be weakening5 (the EIA data shows an increase of 8.5 million barrels of stored fuel). Given that crude oil revenue remains critical to Nigerias budget performance, investments aimed at improving growth and competitiveness of other key sectors is essential to minimize distortions on budgetary expenditure.

Download

Multidimensional Impact Evaluation:

Ending (extreme) poverty in all of its forms everywhere around the world continues to dominate the International Development Agenda (UN 2015).

However, while poverty is declining in much of the developing world, data from the World Development Report (WDR) Conflict, Security, and Development reveal that fragile and conflict-affected states are lagging behind. The report points out that ‘Poverty rates are 20 percentage points higher in countries affected by repeated cycles of violence over the last three decades. Indeed, with the worlds extreme poor over represented in fragile and conflict-affected ,some authors argue that violent conflict is development in reverse

Download

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 46)

On a Month-on-Month basis, average growth rate of selected food prices decreased in October 2017.  Precisely, contracting by 1.24 percent in October, average growth rate fell from 0.08 percent recorded in September 2017. Notably, the contraction reflected in the food sub-index of the headline inflation for October 2017. The marginal decrease in the prices of selected food items may be in line with seasonal levels, as the harvest season reaches its peak, thus making food items relatively available at various demand levels. Going forward, investment towards the provision of better farming inputs, technology, financing, and value addition across the agricultural value chain could help improve yield output and food security all through the year. 

Download

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 47)

Recently released data by the Debt Management Office reveals a further increase in Nigerias debt stock as at the end of 2017Q3. Total debt stock stood at N20.37 trillion as at September 20172, increasing by 3.75 percent Quarter-over- Quarter and 20.67 percent Year-on-Year. External debts rose 2 percent to N4.69 trillion, while domestic debts (FGN and States) grew by 4.3 percent to N15.68 trillion both accounting for approximately 23 percent and 77 percent of total debt stock respectively. Obviously, Nigerias increasing debt accumulation at a rate faster than GDP growth rate, clearly exacerbates difficulties in meeting debt repayment and sustainability of debt servicing measures. The recent borrowing surge should be utilized to provide socially viable and profitable infrastructure so as to minimize the future debt burden.

Download

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 45)

Crude oil prices recorded increase during the review week. Global benchmark, Brent price increased from $61.42 to $63.522. Nigerias Bonny light gained 9.6 percent to trade at $64.78 per barrel. The weeks rise was at the backdrop of further prospective cuts agreement at OPECs meeting in November 2017 and political tensions and uncertainties in Saudi Arabia given that these events may likely reduce supply and support demand in the near term. Meanwhile, global crude oil market events have been favorable to Nigeria, as the price of bonny light at approximately $65 per barrel, reflects the highest in more than two years.

Download

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 44)

Latest
Doing Business report by the World Bank ranks Nigeria as one of the top 10 economies
that showed notable improvements in doing business in 2016/2017. Precisely, the
report which presents quantitative indicators on business regulation compared
across 190 economies and ranked Nigeria 145th – up by 24 positions from
the previous report ranking, to reach its highest rank since 2013. This may not
be unexpected, given that it is consequent upon various business environment
reforms in 2016. Particularly, the Presidential Enabling Business Environment
Council (PEBEC) set up in 2016 enacted 31 reforms to improve
business(such as improving credit to small and medium-size
businesses) all of were enacted into law in May 2017.

Download

CSEA ANNUAL REPORT

As Nigeria is currently witnessing an economic and fiscal crisis, the need for evidence-based and timely research to guide policymakers in making informed decisions have become ever more useful.  CSEA,  as  a  leading  think  tank in  Africa, with proximity to policymakers in the capital city of  Abuja,  is  increasingly  repositioning  itself  to track and   analyse  […]

Download

Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 42)

Recently
released survey report by the CBN shows an improvement in the availability of
secured and unsecured banks credit and loans to
households, corporate and small businesses in 2017Q3, and an optimistic outlook
in 2017Q4. Among other indices, availability of overall secured and
unsecured lending to households improved from -6.2 and -19.2 to -0.9 and -15.0
index points respectively; although still in the negative territory. Index for
availability of credit to small businesses improved from -20.1 to -6.7. Lenders
and respondents noted that anticipation of a brighter economic outlook,
favorable liquidity positions, market share objectives and higher appetite for
risk were major factors behind the increase. 

Download