Macroeconomic Report & Economic Updates

July 22, 2016

Nigeria Economic Update(Issue 31)

Recent data on Consumer
Price Index (CPI) indicates significant increase in general price level for the
sixth consecutive month. Headline inflation increased by 0.9 percentage points from
15.6 per cent recorded in May to 16.5 percent in June the highest
rate recorded since October 2005 (an 11-year high). The core sub-index
increased from 15.1 percent to 16.2 percent while the food sub-index stood at
15.3 percent, an increase of 0.4 percent from the preceding month of May. Higher
prices of domestic/imported food and other items, as well as increased energy
cost were major drivers of the increase. This is probably explained by the
exchange-rate pass-through, given the significant depreciation of the naira.

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Nigeria Economic Update (Issue 29)

OPEC weekly basket price decreased marginally from $45.95 on June 24, 2016 to $45.26 on July 1, 2016,while Nigerias bonny light fell by $1, from $48.90 to $47.91. The apparent decline in crude oil price was driven by lingering market demand uncertainty, following the unexpected Brexit referendum. More so, ease in supply disruptions in Nigeria and Canada may have contributed to the downward pressure on prices. Going forward, until there is greater regulatory precision on global oil output levels, prices may likely remain stuck or continue to exhibit a downward trend. Although, Nigerias fiscal constraints slightly relaxed with oil production increasing in the review week (following repairs on sabotaged pipeline channels), potential global crude oil oversupply threatens governments revenues. However, oversupply threats could be reduced if there is a consensus on oil production quotas in the upcoming OPEC meeting.